This is the next in a series that I've been writing called "Future Trends". In this series I've been steadily looking at various states across the country, analyzing where trends are going. The last installment that I wrote was about the FL Panhandle. In this post I focus on the Jacksonville Area. Before I continue, though, here are previous installments:
Florida Panhandle
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Oklahoma and West Texas
Georgia
More beneath the fold
I have defined the Jacksonville Area to include Baker, Clay, Duval (which is basically the same as Jacksonville, except for a few small towns), Nassau, and St. John's counties. These four counties make up the Jacksonville Metropolitan area.
In most elections this area votes heavily Republican. With the exception of Corrine Brown, who represents the heavily Black FL-3, the rest of the area sends Republicans to Congress. Although FL-4 once sent Charles Bennett (D) (he represented the area from 1948 to 1992) to Congress, it now sends Andrew Crenshaw (R). FL-6 sends Cliff Stearns (R) to Congress. FL-7 sends John Mica (R) to Congress. Of these Republican districts FL-4 is the most conservative with a PVI of +14 GOP. FL-6 is +8 GOP. FL-7 is +4 GOP. Of these districts the Democrats probably could only be competitive in FL-7.
(But as you can tell from the links FL-4, FL-6, and FL-7 follow illogical gerryamndering. FL-4 extends toward Tallahasee, ending in Leon County. It kind of looks like a gun. FL-6 basically takes the white parts of SE Jacksonville and goes out of its way to avoid Black areas and Gainesville before ending in the far NE exurbs of Tampa and Orlando. It looks like a sideways Y. FL-7 basically follows the shore and then extends to take in the more conservative Orlando exurbs and suburbs. While the area could probably send one more Democrat to Congress or at least have one more tossup district, FL-3 basically ensures that the rest of the Jacksonville districts stay heavily Republican).
Generally, as with the Panhandle and the rest of northern Florida, Republicans dominate in the Jacksonville area. While Democrats are the majority of voters in Baker and Duval counties, Republicans signficantly lead in voter voter registration figures in Clay, Nassau, and St. John's Counties. Even though Democrats are a majority in Baker and Duval Counties, the registration numbers are misleading because those "Democrats" regularly vote Republican in most elections. While some of the very local officials in Baker and Duval counties are Democrats, Republicans win most higher officers.
With the partisan background explained the next factor to analyze is population growth in the region. I am using the US Census Bureau as my source of data. Here are the numbers from 2007 and 2000 for each of the counties:
Baker: 25,745 (2007); 22,259 (2000)(+3486)
Clay: 182,023 (2007); 140,814 (2000)(+41209)
Duval: 849,159 (2007); 778,879 (2000)(+70280)
Nassau: 68,450 (2007); 57,663 (2000) (+10787)
St. John's: 175,446 (2007); 123,315 (2000) (+52131)
Overall the trend in the area is clear growth. St. John's seems to be growing the fastest, although Clay isn't that far behind. Duval seems to have added the largest amounts of people. Baker and Nassau, while growing, don't seem to have been as significant as those other counties. Although these numbers don't include 2008, which doesn't include the drop-off in FL growth that might have happened due to the housing crisis, Jacksonville continues to attract people. It is a growing part of the state.
Now let us compare how Kerry and Obama fared in those counties.
Baker: M: 8672; O: 2327 (GOP +6345)
B: 7738; K: 2180 (GOP +5558)
Difference in GOP performance between 2004 and 2008: +787
Clay: M: 67203; O: 26697 (GOP +40506)
B: 62078; K: 18971 (GOP +43107)
Difference in GOP performance between 2004 and 2008: -2601
Duval: M: 210537; O: 202618 (GOP +7919)
B: 220190; K: 158610 (GOP +61580)
Difference in GOP performance between 2004 and 2008: -53661
Nassau: M: 27403; O: 10618 (GOP +16785)
B: 23783; K: 8573 (GOP +15210)
Difference in GOP performance between 2004 and 2008: +1575
St. John's: M: 69222; O: 26697 (GOP +42525)
B: 59196; K: 26399 (GOP +32797)
Difference in GOP performance between 2004 and 2008: +9278
In 2004 Bush carried this region by a 158,252 margin. McCain's margin fell to 114,080. Thus, in the entire region, McCain ran 44,172 votes behind Bush. Clearly McCain lost this ground in both Clay and Duval counties. Duval county registered the largest GOP drop-off of any the counties. Clay had a smaller drop-off, while GOP performance rose in Baker, Nassau, and St. John's.
What bodes well for the Democrats in this region is that the largest county, the one that added the most amount of people, trended blue heavily. Clay County, the second most populous, had a slight improvement in Democratic performance. The other three--Baker, Nassau, and St. John's--trended toward the GOP. St. John's seems to have had the largest GOP increase. Baker and Nassau counties remained heavily Republican.
In the future, going forward, FL Democrats should try to improve their performance in Clay and Duval counties. They seem to be the most promising so far. Baker and Nassau seem to be minor players in the region and hopelessly Republican, although Obama's race might have driven those counties toward McCain more. Much like what happened in FL-1 and FL-2, the more "Dixiecrat" a county is, the more likely that GOP performance improved. But going forward, if the Democrats can build on their improvements in Duval County, they might be able to win more offices there and improve statewide performance.
St. John's County will be interesting to watch. It seems to fit the stereotypical mode of the fast-growing county that starts off being heavily Republican. I've written about these counties before and have discussed the "tipping point theory". I first read about it when reading John Judis and Ruy Texiera's "Emerging Democratic Majority". According to them, when a county reaches a certain population point, its conservatism peaks; and it becomes less Republican. While that doesn't mean that those counties become Democratic strongholds, they do become slightly less Republican and more politically competitive. It will be interesting to see how St. John's County votes in 2012.
But, as I've noticed throughout this series, if a county is gaining more people, Obama tends to have done better there. Most of McCain's Jacksonville area gains (save for St. John's County) seem to have come from counties with smaller population growth and smaller increases in population.