Two ideas just came together in my mind: Republicans are actively studying what Newt did in 1994, in an effort to duplicate it. Limbaugh today referred to the "sad-sack state" of the Republican Party.
What if the Republic Party never finds its way out of the wilderness? Could Limbaugh's ditto heads raise a new party, based on elements of the Ginrich strategy, that will eventually eclipse the dying Republican party?
Check my thinking...
First, the point was made in an excellent post by looseheadprop that Newt didn't come up with any new messaging, but that he did effectively leverage his resources to astroturf a broad electoral movement. Here's her take:
OK, lets remember how Newt got to be Speaker of the House shall we? Simple, he took over GOPAC and transformed it. He went around raising money from big corporations, promising them that he could deliver reliable votes on matters that were important to them (kind like an uberlobbyist) and then he went out and recruited candidates who promised to adhere to his commands -- he made them sign his "Contract with America"-- but were too weak to run unassisted. He gave them messaging, candidate training, staff, and most of all MONEY from GOPAC. They were elected to Congress, producing that famous GOP majority, but they were utterly dependent on Newt for the re-election that was only 2 years away, and he never hesitated to remind them of that. He owned their asses.
This is part of the Republican Party's problem today. A good chunk of their elected officially literally came into office as agents of someone else's ideology. Because these congressmen weren't people who woke up one day and said, "[random issue(s)] is really important to me and I should run for office so I can do something about it," they are completely ill-equipped to chart their own course. Now that their elders and giants have been sent home in disgrace, they're stuck following Boehner and Cantor's ridiculous ideas about demonstrating party unity.
The tactic, though, could work again, and the "conservative" movement is in serious need of rebranding. Remember how Blackwater changed its name to "Xe," which probably won't lead anyone forget how horrible they are but was a nice try anyway. Even if they had better ideas to choose from than Steele's hip hop make-over, I still don't think the Republican party can be salvaged this generation. It is more than a question of branding, it is also a matter of the same "sorry sack" Congressmen and Senators sitting around saying dumb things.
Which is why I took specific interest in Rush smearing today's Republican party in the course of responding to Steele. It isn't like the party is doing the "movement" any favors these days. Maybe the movement can simply ditch the party.
Pulling back from this issue for a moment, I believe we're starting to see the three-way fight for the future of the Republican party which I've been predicting since the end of the primary. The party seems to be made up of two broad interests: knuckle-draggers who are too indoctrinated in the ideology and worked up about social issues to do themselves any favors when they vote, and business types who have tolerated a social agenda they aren't particularly interested in because winning elections lowers their taxes and advances deregulation. The two pieces have very little in common if they aren't winning elections, and now that they aren't, I don't know if the center can hold.
Using the candidates from last time as proxies, I expect things to play out like this in the 2012 Republican primary. The main fight is going to be between a Romney-type and a Palin-type, each of whom appeals to their various faction in ways which are clear. The wild card would be a Huckabee-type, pushing a more-populist agenda (which scared off business donations in 2008) with a gentler branding. When Huntsman took a pro-domestic partnership position, I immediately cast him in this role in my mind. Of course, I don't expect the Huckabee candidate to win in 2012 for the same reasons he couldn't get any traction in 2012, but he may pull enough knuckle-draggers away from Palin to let Romney win.
Now I'm injecting an ascendant third party notion into my thinking. I'm not entirely sure how that would play out, but I would expect it to try to capture the knuckle-draggers. (After all, the business types can always go running to Ellen Tauscher and the New Democrats.) A gentler, Huckabee-style approach doesn't seem like it would be capable of moving forward, given how nasty things got in 2008. (Definitely check this out if you haven't seen it. Wait for the crying redneck 8 minutes in... you really wish the guy could just get over himself and stop freaking out. h/t Pam.)
Being able to take aim at the current crop of Republican office-holders would be really helpful for anyone trying to actually shift public opinion, as opposed to just tossing red meat to the base. Attacking a president with over 70% approval rating is going to leave you with very little credibility nationwide. I suspect that isn't a problem for Rush, since he needs someone to attack and isn't trying to win majority support from anywhere on anything. Frustrated conservatives, though, who want to start winning elections again, could borrow Newt's tactics and start picking off Republicans with a slightly tweaked message and all-new branding.
I don't think this would be something for us to have to WORRY about, because I think the center of the nation has shifted and will continue to shift. I'm merely suggesting the possibility... something I do here from time to time. I'm eager to hear your thoughts.