Today is the day that the fate of IL-5's Congressional House seat becomes clear. Whoever wins the Democratic primary is the odds on favorite to win the election and to hold the seat until they either voluntarily relinquish it back to Rahm (not bloody likely), get a promotion, retire or die. IL-5 is overwhelmingly blue, having elected one reddie for one term since 1907.
But the House Seat itself has an illustrious career. It was last held by the current Chief of Staff, who, had he not taken that gig, was on the fast track to become Speaker. Previously, it was held by the now-impeached governor of Illinois. Skipping the one-term-reddie, it was held before that by Dan Rostenkowski, one of the most powerful men in Washington, and the head of the "powerful Ways and Means Committee", forever. Before that, it was held by Thomas Gordon, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee, who served until he died in 1959. This seat has power. And, this seat is up for grabs. And today, my unconventional conventionists, is the day that the next Congresscritter from this district will be unveiled.
UPDATE BELOW THE FOLD
If you're looking for a horserace, my friends, you've found the right place. I've handicapped them for your betting pleasure.
Top tier-
- Sara Feigenholtz - State Representative, poster child of the LGBT community and the abortion rights supporters, the daughter of a Eastern European single mother doctor, touting her views on Universal Healthcare, and immigrants rights. Lots of support in Lake View and Andersonville, among women, Jews, and various other minorities. Endorsed by Emily's List, SEIU and others.
- John Fritchey - State Representative, and head of the Judicial Committee which recently impeached ol whatsisname, whom I laughingly call the next African American Congressman from Illinois (his mother hails from Morocco). A strongly anti-Daley voice with a lot of machine backing. Pro-choice, pro-LGBT, pro-universal health care. 538 lists him as wanting to repeal the estate tax, but his answers to IVI IPO disagree. Lots of support "west-of-Kedzie". Endorsed by the AFL-CIO, FOP, and NARAL, just to keep it interesting.
- Mike Quigley - Cook County Commissioner, good Irish Catholic, and strong supporter of LGBT, Choice, and environmental protections. His answers on the IVI IPO were far more legalese than Sara or John, but his name recognition throughout the district puts him in the top tier. Endorsed by the Sun-Times and the Tribune.
2nd tier-
- Pat O'Connor - Alderman of the 40th Ward. If Daley had a horse in this race, Pat would be that horse. But Daley is keeping his nose out of it, so Pat is off the top-tier list, at least in my book. Strong support in his ward, and the foot soldiers that 25 years in the City Council brings with it.
- Frank Annunzio - Great nephew of Frank Annunzio, the elder of whom served in the House for 28 years. Clearly running on his uncle's name, but, as he left Congress in 1991, I just can't see this as a big winner of a strategy.
3rd tier-
- Charlie Wheelan - University of Chicago Economics professor. Some radical ideas, but the smartest one was to rent out the old Time Well, a massive space at the corners of Lincoln, Diversey and Racine, which, from what I understand, over 40,000 people drive past each and every day. Just putting up signs in his campaign office bought an awful lot of name recognition, which puts him at the very top of the no-name category.
- Tom Geoghegan - Labor lawyer, and well beloved here. Yesterday, in the cold, he had a bunch of people standing on a street corner at Montrose and Lincoln. In a low-turnout race, this kind of dedication might propel him higher.
The rest of the pack-
- Victor Forys, MD. A candidate with a strong appeal among the Polish immigrants in the district, which is not an unsubstantial voting bloc. Chicago boasts the largest Polish population of any city in the world, including Warsaw, and Dr. Forys treats people who can't afford medical care elsewhere. Medical plus immigration plus a large voting bloc might be enough in this crazy race.
- Jan Donatelli - commercial airline pilot, and veteran, maybe the only veteran in the race, certainly the only one running on her veteran status. One of two women in the race and the one without the name recognition.
- Paul Bryar, DO (I think that's right) - eye surgeon and Northwestern University Medical School professor. At the debate, came out as the guy who challenged other people's petitions. Still. There are an awful lot of signs out there for him.
- "Dr Carlos" Monteagudo - psychiatrist. He says he is a clean break from business as usual, and I believe him. He is the only one on the ballot with a Hispanic name, and, well, who knows?
- Cary Capparelli - Geographer, really, he should be Dr. Capparelli, but with all the other doctors in the race, I can see why he's not doing the whole PhD thing. He has a background in advertising and public relations, and has the coolest endorsements... a lightweight champion, a heavyweight champion, some racecar drivers. I have seen one lonely sign on Peterson around Kimball. It's cute. But, with all the driving I do, if that's the only one I've seen... well...
OK. So, it's a cold and snowy day. I voted before work, and, when I got to the polling place, it was empty. There had been one Fritchey guy with way too much time on his hands half a block away, but no one else electioneering. My partner voted around lunch time, and, at the time, the total turnout had been somewhere around 100. Now, we're a pretty active community, and if our turnout is this low, it's just going to be a wacky election.
Honestly, this could go to anyone. ANYONE. And this is one helluva seat. One thing for sure, this is going to be fun!
Good luck Candidates!
Update:
RESULTS - Turnout 10.x%
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Tier 1- as expected... if you had placed a boxed bet, you would have won
Mike Quigley 8,393
John A. Fritchey 6,535
Sara Feigenholtz 6,140
Tier 2-
Patrick J. O'Connor 4,486
Victor A. Forys 4,341 - replaced Annunzio. Good show!
Tier 3-
Charles J. Wheelan 2,478
Tom Geoghegan 2,187
Also rans-
Carlos A. Monteagudo 779
Jan H. Donatelli 598
Frank Annunzio 532
Cary Capparelli 492