The diary about long time democratic incumbents what must run for reelection in 2010 tell we, B Boxer can be one of senators what make feel any little doubt for reelection.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Safe democratic incumbents?
Like in very much blue states, republicans from California have few options of make a decent race. Governor A Scharzenegger (R-1947) is their better option.
Now republicans only have one statewide officer more, S Poizner CA Insurance Commisioner, who seems running for governor. They have more mid level possible candidates, but seems no-one will run for senate, and seems no-one can make a decent race against incumbent democratic senator. Cause of that we must return to A Schwarzenegger.
Not is sure he run for senate. Seems unlikely because the last polls are bad for republican governor losing 40%-49% against B Boxer, but A Schwarzenegger running for senate seems the alone serious threat for B Boxer. We can think today in this option.
In democratic side, all possible serious candidates seems thinking in gubernatorial race. It can be interesting remember the diaries about CA-Gov race:
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 35 votes = 07,952 => Likely Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
I think no-one of possible serious candidates will challenge B Boxer but, like i make for all races in all states, i will remember the list of possible candidates:
- Barbara Levy Boxer: NY CA 1940 Senator from California 93- . USHRep 83-93. Lost for Marin County Board of Supervisors 72- .
- George Miller III: CA 1945 USHRep 75- .
- Howard Lawrence Berman: CA 1941 USHRep 83- .
- Xavier Becerra: CA 1958 USHRep 93- . Lost for Mayor of Los Angeles 01.
- Loretta Sanchez: CA 1960 USHRep 97- . Lost for Anaheim city council 94.
- Bradley J Sherman: CA 1954 USHRep 97- .
- Ellen O'Kane Tauscher: NY CA 1951 USHRep 97- .
- Michael C Thompson: CA 1951 USHRep 99- .
- Linda T Sanchez: CA 1969 USHRep 03- .
- Laura Richardson: CA 1962 USHRep 07- .
- Robert Filner: PA CA 1942 USHRep 93- .
- Anna Georges Eshoo: CT CA 1942 USHRep 93- . Lost for House 88.
- Samuel S Farr: CA 1941 USHRep 93- .
- Lucille Roybal-Allard: CA 1941 USHRep 93- .
- Jane Lakes Harman: NY CA 1945 USHRep 93-99 01- . Lost for Governor 98.
- Zoe Lofgren: CA 1947 USHRep 95- .
- Barbara Jean Lee: TX CA 1946 USHRep 98- .
- Joe Baca: NM CA 1947 USHRep 99- .
- Adam B Schiff: MA CA 1960 USHRep 01- .
- Dennis A Cardoza: CA 1959 USHRep 03- .
- James Manuel Costa: CA 1952 USHRep 05- .
- Gerald McNerney: NM CA 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
- Susan A Davis: MA CA 1944 USHRep 01- .
- Michael Makoto Honda: CA 1941 USHRep 01- .
- Doris Okada Matsui: AZ CA 1944 USHRep 05- .
- Karen Lorraine Jacqueline Speier: CA 1950 USHRep 08- . Lost for House 79. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of CA 06.
- Victor Herbert Fazio: MA CA 1942 USHRep 79-99.
- Anthony Coelho: CA 1942 USHRep 79-89.
- Richard Henry Lehman: CA 1948 USHRep 83-95. Lost for House 94.
- Meldon Edises Levin: CA 1943 USHRep 83-93. Lost for Senate 92.
- Douglas Harry Bosco: NY CA 1946 USHRep 83-91. Lost for House 90.
- Calvin M Dooley: CA 1954 USHRep 91-05.
- Lynn Schenk: NY CA 1945 USHRep 93-95. Lost for House 94. Lost for Supervisor San Diego County 84.
- John Raymond Garamendi: CA 1945 Deputy Secretary of Interior 95-98. Lieutenant Governor of CA 07- . CA State Insurance Commissioner 91-95 03-07. Lost for Governor 82 and 94. Lost for CA State Controller 86.
- Cruz Miguel Bustamante: CA 1953 Lieutenant Governor of CA 99-07. Lost for Governor (recall) 03. Lost for CA State Insurance Commissioner 06.
- John Chiang: NY CA 1962 CA State Controller 07- .
- Jack T O'Connell: NY CA 1951 CA State Superintendent of PI 03- .
- Debra Bowen: IL CA 1955 CA Secretary of State 07- .
- William Westwood Lockyer: CA 1941 CA State Treasurer 07- . CA Attorney General 99-07.
- Gavin Christopher Newsom: CA 1967 Mayor of San Francisco 04- .
- Antonio Ramón Villaraigosa: CA 1953 Mayor of Los Angeles 05- . Lost for Mayor of Los Angeles 01.
- Philip Nicholas Angelides: CA 1953 CA State Treasurer 99-07. Lost for Governor 06. Lost for CA State Treasurer 94. Lost for Sacramento City Council 73 and 77.
- Kathleen Brown: CA 1946 CA State Treasurer 91-95. Lost for Governor 94.
- Kathleen Connell: CO CA 1947 CA State Controller 95-03. Lost for Mayor of Los Angeles 01.
- Steven Paul Westly: CA 1957 CA State Controller 03-07. Lost for Governor 06. Lost for Chair CA Democratic Party 89.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Safe democratic incumbents?
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 with 76%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 with 71%.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 with 71%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 with 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 with 63%.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 with 62%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 with 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 with 55%.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 with 56%.
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 with 68%.
IL-Sen: Incumbent R Burris (D-1937). B Obama (D-1961) win in 2004 with 70%.
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? after 21 votes = 08,968 Safe Dem
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 63 votes = 07,963 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 33 votes = 07,828 => Likely Democratic
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 11 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democr
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 42 votes = 07,143 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (R-1944) ? after 31 votes = 06,882 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan ? after 10 votes = 06,833 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 30 votes = 06,333 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 22 votes = 06,288 => Leans Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 36 votes = 05,602 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,101 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 40 votes = 04,875 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.