What i am trying to accomplish in this article is to show the ignorance in the internet availability of information about the amount of carbon actually in the oceans, predicted either from extensive 1979 OceanSecs ocean survey data, which MUST underestimate the situation given calcium carbonate chemistry today, atmospheric concentrations, and current trends from NOAA, Mauna Loa, and also due to other offhand remarks in other papers that could prove useful at assessing calcium carbonate and carbon in the oceans.
I wanted to show some realistic assumptions about centroid data, and steady state assuming diffusion within a year between the top 1000 metres of the ocean and the atmosphere. And it seems the depths may be more dense in CO2 than we realize.
I have tried to keep my simulation as bare bones simple as possible... an impossible approximation, but approximations need to be made based on centroids and facts and measurements and theory. I have used all four, but the sampling frequency of the ocean is nowhere near sufficient. In reality we need another up to date Oceansecs ocean survey, probably carried out by the navy and made public as soon as possible. Great Pity about the recent satellite!
While it is not possible to know all the general relativistic spacetime cones and how they all now are oriented for each particle or molecule nor how they will all interact in the future, what all the quantum and nonlocal wavefunctions are (eg. EPR experiment) or how the thermodynamics of Avogadros number plays out in our back yard, or how chaos theory affects computer simulations and real analog systems; it becomes evident that approximations need to be made about the state of planet earth, where she is headed and what we can do about it. Putting aside worries about wars and plagues and famines, will many of the species 'we grew up with' since Lucy get a chance to survive, or will they and we go the way of the dodo. Its still a little early to tell. But the following seems concrete enough..... and this paragraph is a bit too smart for its own good.
Giga Tonnes to process to reduce ppm by 1 each year with two scenarios one starting 2010, the other late starting 2018.
Taking into account the ocean survey data in
http://globalecology.stanford.edu/...
The following data is normalized in terms of ocean total holding in GT of Carbon, it is more than what is in the atmosphere in total, and human emissions are vital, however they are not the whole story and they may be less significant in the overall scheme of things than we have been led to believe.
The human emissions are listed in the first column, from the UN and environmental defense data, as well
as including human emissions from biology .511 Tonnes per annum CO2 per person as population increases.
the ppm of CO2 is the last column, and the goal
www.350.org, is to reduce it to 350 ppm within a reasonable timeframe.
Diffusion between the atmosphere and the ocean is assumed during a year, and this may be reasonable, but needs to be checked with a diffusion model. I will check it later this year.
One of my motivating drives was to achieve some simulation on a standalone PC that captured some important aspects of the cusp or bifurcation point into chaos and catastrophe. If we can prevent the bifurcation, it is a whole lot easier to put the genie back in the bottle.... and yes if the wizard of oz still plays as it does, you can return to kansas and you can create negative entropy under certain energy and physical and informational flow situations.
Ocean carbon circulation patterns may have to be taken into account as well as the deep ocean CO2
http://www.terrapub.co.jp/...
Similarly, calcium carbonate reserves, expected in the ocean to run out when ppm =450, around 2035 if no remedication is done, need to be considered too.
Average needed to be remediated from 2010 until 2047 equals 7.53 GT of Carbon or 44/12 times that of CO2.
23.03 GT-Carbon need to be remediated on average after 2047 until 2100
The spreadsheet i used to get the following numbers was:
www.greenparty.ca/files/oceanconchz.xls.zip
http://ideas.repec.org/...
this article says that there is .5% of carbon in CO2 in the oceans and another 99.5% in HCO3- and CO3_2- and H2CO3
and that the total carbon in the oceans is 65 times that in the atmosphere. This seems reasonable, but no references were given in this paper and it is a mathy paper more than a science paper and it seems an offhand casual remark.
With this in mind, the following must be true, centred on 2008, with action in 2010 to remediate CO2 by storing it in the deep ocean treanches of the pacific, near to the mariana trench and not far from the off gassing hot spot off the coast of Peru.
Annu
Year,Amnt--,Amnt to,--% change,---delta--- ,ocean hold,-total ocean,--------,----
----,emitted,remed-,-due to man,--Total Co2, top 1000 m,total ocean,----atm,- ppm
----,man GT-C,GT-C, ---------.--GT-C,---GT-C,---- GT-C,------GT-C,--CO2
11990 2.010 0.000 ------- ------ 2086.22 33880.57 503.22 353.02
1991 2.055 0.000 47.29 4.345 2095.71 34034.77 505.51 354.62
1992 2.100 0.000 47.46 4.425 2105.33 34191.28 507.84 356.24
1993 2.147 0.000 47.65 4.506 2115.10 34350.10 510.19 357.89
1994 2.195 0.000 47.84 4.588 2125.02 34511.23 512.59 359.56
1995 2.244 0.000 48.04 4.672 2135.07 34674.68 515.02 361.26
1996 2.295 0.000 48.24 4.757 2145.27 34840.43 517.48 362.98
1997 2.347 0.000 48.45 4.843 2155.61 35008.50 519.97 364.72
1998 2.400 0.000 48.67 4.930 2166.09 35178.88 522.50 366.49
1999 2.454 0.000 48.90 5.019 2176.71 35351.57 525.07 368.28
2000 2.510 0.000 49.13 5.109 2187.48 35526.57 527.67 370.10
2001 2.568 0.000 49.37 5.201 2198.38 35703.89 530.30 371.94
2002 2.626 0.000 49.61 5.294 2209.43 35883.51 532.97 373.80
2003 2.687 0.000 49.86 5.389 2220.63 36065.45 535.67 375.69
2004 2.749 0.000 50.11 5.485 2231.96 36249.69 538.41 377.60
2005 2.813 0.000 50.37 5.583 2243.44 36436.25 541.18 379.54
2006 2.878 0.000 50.64 5.683 2255.06 36625.12 543.99 381.50
2007 2.945 0.000 50.91 5.784 2266.82 36816.30 546.82 383.49
2008 3.013 0.000 51.18 5.887 2278.72 37009.80 549.70 385.49
2009 3.048 0.000 51.17 5.956 2290.76 37205.60 552.61 387.53
2010 3.112 3.482 20.51 1.800 2284.84 37109.25 551.18 386.53
2011 3.180 3.527 19.51 1.778 2278.91 37012.89 549.74 385.53
2012 3.250 3.574 18.43 1.755 2272.98 36916.53 548.31 384.53
2013 3.323 3.622 17.28 1.730 2267.05 36820.18 546.88 383.53
2014 3.399 3.673 16.05 1.705 2261.13 36723.82 545.45 382.53
2015 3.479 3.726 14.73 1.678 2255.20 36627.47 544.02 381.53
2016 3.561 3.781 13.32 1.651 2249.27 36531.11 542.59 380.53
2017 3.646 3.837 11.80 1.623 2243.34 36434.76 541.16 379.53
2018 3.735 3.897 10.16 1.593 2237.42 36338.40 539.73 378.53
2019 3.827 3.958 8.40 1.562 2231.49 36242.04 538.30 377.53
2020 3.922 4.021 6.50 1.531 2225.56 36145.69 536.86 376.53
2021 4.021 4.087 4.44 1.498 2219.63 36049.33 535.43 375.53
2022 4.124 4.156 2.20 1.463 2213.71 35952.98 534.00 374.53
2023 4.230 4.227 0.23 1.428 2207.78 35856.62 532.57 373.53
2024 4.340 4.300 2.88 1.391 2201.85 35760.27 531.14 372.53
2025 4.455 4.377 5.78 1.353 2195.92 35663.91 529.71 371.53
2026 4.560 4.447 8.58 1.318 2190.00 35567.55 528.28 370.53
2027 4.667 4.518 11.62 1.282 2184.07 35471.20 526.85 369.53
2028 4.778 4.592 14.92 1.245 2178.14 35374.84 525.42 368.53
2029 4.891 4.668 18.53 1.207 2172.21 35278.49 523.98 367.53
2030 5.008 4.746 22.47 1.169 2166.29 35182.13 522.55 366.53
2031 5.128 4.826 26.82 1.129 2160.36 35085.78 521.12 365.53
2032 5.252 4.908 31.61 1.087 2154.43 34989.42 519.69 364.53
2033 5.378 4.992 36.93 1.045 2148.50 34893.07 518.26 363.53
2034 5.509 5.079 42.86 1.002 2142.58 34796.71 516.83 362.53
2035 5.642 5.168 49.52 0.957 2136.65 34700.35 515.40 361.53
2036 5.780 5.260 57.05 0.911 2130.72 34604.00 513.97 360.53
2037 5.921 5.354 65.62 0.864 2124.79 34507.64 512.53 359.53
2038 6.067 5.451 75.46 0.816 2118.87 34411.29 511.10 358.53
2039 6.216 5.551 86.87 0.766 2112.94 34314.93 509.67 357.53
2040 6.370 5.653 100.25 0.715 2107.01 34218.58 508.24 356.53
2041 6.528 5.759 116.17 0.662 2101.09 34122.22 506.81 355.53
2042 6.690 5.867 135.41 0.608 2095.16 34025.86 505.38 354.53
2043 6.857 5.978 159.11 0.552 2089.23 33929.51 503.95 353.53
2044 7.028 6.092 189.02 0.495 2083.30 33833.15 502.52 352.53
2045 7.205 6.210 227.94 0.436 2077.38 33736.80 501.09 351.53
2046 7.386 6.331 280.64 0.376 2071.45 33640.44 499.65 350.53
2047 7.572 4.838 137.92 1.983 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2048 7.764 3.176 100.00 4.588 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2049 7.961 3.307 100.00 4.654 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2050 8.163 3.442 100.00 4.721 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2051 8.371 3.581 100.00 4.790 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2052 8.585 3.724 100.00 4.862 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2053 8.805 3.870 100.00 4.935 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2054 9.032 4.021 100.00 5.011 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2055 9.264 4.176 100.00 5.088 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2056 9.504 4.336 100.00 5.168 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2057 9.750 4.500 100.00 5.250 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2058 10.002 4.668 100.00 5.334 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2059 10.263 4.842 100.00 5.421 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2060 10.530 5.020 100.00 5.510 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2061 10.805 5.203 100.00 5.602 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2062 11.088 5.392 100.00 5.696 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2063 11.379 5.586 100.00 5.793 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2064 11.678 5.785 100.00 5.893 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2065 11.985 5.990 100.00 5.995 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2066 12.301 6.201 100.00 6.100 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2067 12.627 6.418 100.00 6.209 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2068 12.961 6.641 100.00 6.320 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2069 13.305 6.870 100.00 6.435 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2070 13.659 7.106 100.00 6.553 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2071 14.022 7.348 100.00 6.674 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2072 14.397 7.598 100.00 6.799 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2073 14.781 7.854 100.00 6.927 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2074 15.177 8.118 100.00 7.059 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2075 15.584 8.389 100.00 7.195 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2076 16.003 8.669 100.00 7.334 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2077 16.433 8.956 100.00 7.478 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2078 16.876 9.251 100.00 7.625 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2079 17.332 9.554 100.00 7.777 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2080 17.800 9.867 100.00 7.933 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2081 18.282 10.188 100.00 8.094 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2082 18.778 10.518 100.00 8.259 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2083 19.287 10.858 100.00 8.429 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2084 19.812 11.208 100.00 8.604 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2085 20.351 11.567 100.00 8.784 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2086 20.906 11.937 100.00 8.969 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2087 21.476 12.318 100.00 9.159 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2088 22.063 12.709 100.00 9.354 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2089 22.667 13.111 100.00 9.556 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2090 23.288 13.525 100.00 9.763 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2091 23.927 13.951 100.00 9.976 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2092 24.584 14.389 100.00 10.195 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2093 25.260 14.840 100.00 10.420 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2094 25.955 15.303 100.00 10.652 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2095 26.670 15.780 100.00 10.890 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2096 27.406 16.271 100.00 11.135 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2097 28.163 16.775 100.00 11.388 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2098 28.941 17.294 100.00 11.647 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
2099 29.742 17.828 100.00 11.914 2068.33 33589.82 498.90 350.00
avg 4.98 until 2047
to remediate 8.77 GT-C in CO2 form thereafter until 2099
thats if we start remediating in 2010
Rule of thumb applied....
- The oceans absorb about 1/3 of all man made CO2 in GT-CO2, 12/44 times that to get GT-C , GigaTonnes Carbon.... in fact they absorb about 1/3 of all the CO2 generated in one year.
- As atmospheric concentrations decrease, they give off about 1/3 of the change in the top 1000 metres, above the thermocline, which is relatively uncoupled to the deep ocean reservoir below.
unfortunately, it took the manhattan project from 1939 or thereabouts till 1945 to complete its task.
Bussard fusion is likely to take as long or longer.
We may not be able to start remediation , but can prepare for it , until 2018
Every measure should be taken to get off fossil fuels in the mean time, with alternative energy that is implementable now.
the following is what it will look like if we carry on as usual until 2018,
it will bring us in under the 450ppm mark that we need to avoid, but it might be too late for the krill and plankton. and other species in the ocean up the food chain. Every effort must be made to preserve these species in aquaria with sufficient genetic diversity so that the oceans can be reseeded with life once we get to 2072.
We should stop feeding ourselves off ocean species as soon as possible and move to livestock for protein, like sheep, cows and pigs, or go vegetarian if we can, and grow as much locally decentralized self sufficient as we can to keep the quality up and the transportation down.
So if we start in 2010 reducing.... it takes us until 2047 to get back to 350 ppm.
If we wait until 2018 to start reducing.... it takes us until 2072 to get back to 350.0 ppm, but measures need to be taken to preserve ocean species and diversity.... a mammoth task. pun intended
Given the ongoing recession / depression that Jon Stuart just blew the lid off, we will be able to count on a couple of years extra at least to study the problem and ACT on it.
The economist is showing articles about removing CO2 from the air with solvents and sorbents. I agree with Obama and Gore when they say we need a myriad of solutions and all of them moving forward in parallel. This is a race to save the species on the planet and its biosphere.
If we delay till 2018
1990 2.010 0.000 ---- --- 2094.50 34015.22 505.22 353.02
1991 2.055 0.000 47.29 4.345 2103.99 34169.42 507.51 354.62
1992 2.100 0.000 47.46 4.425 2113.62 34325.93 509.84 356.24
1993 2.147 0.000 47.65 4.506 2123.39 34484.75 512.19 357.89
1994 2.195 0.000 47.84 4.588 2133.30 34645.89 514.59 359.56
1995 2.244 0.000 48.04 4.672 2143.35 34809.33 517.02 361.26
1996 2.295 0.000 48.24 4.757 2153.55 34975.09 519.48 362.98
1997 2.347 0.000 48.45 4.843 2163.89 35143.16 521.97 364.72
1998 2.400 0.000 48.67 4.930 2174.37 35313.53 524.50 366.49
1999 2.454 0.000 48.90 5.019 2184.99 35486.23 527.07 368.28
2000 2.510 0.000 49.13 5.109 2195.76 35661.23 529.67 370.10
2001 2.568 0.000 49.37 5.201 2206.67 35838.54 532.30 371.94
2002 2.626 0.000 49.61 5.294 2217.72 36018.16 534.97 373.80
2003 2.687 0.000 49.86 5.389 2228.91 36200.10 537.67 375.69
2004 2.749 0.000 50.11 5.485 2240.24 36384.35 540.41 377.60
2005 2.813 0.000 50.37 5.583 2251.72 36570.91 543.18 379.54
2006 2.878 0.000 50.64 5.683 2263.34 36759.78 545.99 381.50
2007 2.945 0.000 50.91 5.784 2275.10 36950.96 548.82 383.49
2008 3.013 0.000 51.18 5.887 2287.00 37144.45 551.70 385.49
2009 3.048 0.000 51.17 5.956 2299.05 37340.26 554.61 387.53
2010 3.112 0.000 51.40 6.055 2311.24 37538.37 557.55 389.58
2011 3.180 0.000 51.65 6.157 2323.56 37738.80 560.53 391.66
2012 3.250 0.000 51.91 6.261 2336.04 37941.54 563.54 393.77
2013 3.323 0.000 52.18 6.369 2348.65 38146.59 566.58 395.89
2014 3.399 0.000 52.47 6.479 2361.41 38353.95 569.66 398.05
2015 3.479 0.000 52.76 6.593 2374.31 38563.62 572.78 400.22
2016 3.561 0.000 53.07 6.709 2387.35 38775.61 575.93 402.42
2017 3.646 0.000 53.39 6.829 2400.53 38989.90 579.11 404.65
2018 3.735 3.897 10.17 1.593 2394.60 38893.55 577.68 403.65
2019 3.827 3.958 8.41 1.563 2388.67 38797.19 576.25 402.65
2020 3.922 4.022 6.51 1.531 2382.75 38700.84 574.82 401.65
2021 4.021 4.088 4.45 1.498 2376.82 38604.48 573.38 400.65
2022 4.124 4.156 2.22 1.464 2370.89 38508.12 571.95 399.65
2023 4.230 4.227 0.21 1.428 2364.96 38411.77 570.52 398.65
2024 4.340 4.301 2.86 1.391 2359.04 38315.41 569.09 397.65
2025 4.455 4.377 5.76 1.353 2353.11 38219.06 567.66 396.65
2026 4.560 4.447 8.56 1.318 2347.18 38122.70 566.23 395.65
2027 4.667 4.518 11.60 1.282 2341.25 38026.35 564.80 394.65
2028 4.778 4.592 14.90 1.246 2335.33 37929.99 563.37 393.65
2029 4.891 4.668 18.51 1.208 2329.40 37833.63 561.94 392.65
2030 5.008 4.746 22.45 1.169 2323.47 37737.28 560.50 391.65
2031 5.128 4.826 26.79 1.129 2317.54 37640.92 559.07 390.65
2032 5.252 4.908 31.59 1.088 2311.62 37544.57 557.64 389.65
2033 5.378 4.992 36.90 1.045 2305.69 37448.21 556.21 388.65
2034 5.509 5.079 42.84 1.002 2299.76 37351.86 554.78 387.65
2035 5.642 5.169 49.49 0.957 2293.83 37255.50 553.35 386.65
2036 5.780 5.260 57.02 0.911 2287.91 37159.15 551.92 385.65
2037 5.921 5.355 65.58 0.864 2281.98 37062.79 550.49 384.65
2038 6.067 5.451 75.41 0.816 2276.05 36966.43 549.05 383.65
2039 6.216 5.551 86.82 0.766 2270.12 36870.08 547.62 382.65
2040 6.370 5.654 100.20 0.715 2264.20 36773.72 546.19 381.65
2041 6.528 5.759 116.11 0.662 2258.27 36677.37 544.76 380.65
2042 6.690 5.867 135.33 0.608 2252.34 36581.01 543.33 379.65
2043 6.857 5.978 159.02 0.553 2246.41 36484.66 541.90 378.65
2044 7.028 6.093 188.91 0.495 2240.49 36388.30 540.47 377.65
2045 7.205 6.210 227.80 0.437 2234.56 36291.94 539.04 376.65
2046 7.386 6.331 280.44 0.376 2228.63 36195.59 537.61 375.65
2047 7.572 6.455 355.68 0.314 2222.70 36099.23 536.17 374.65
2048 7.764 6.583 471.96 0.250 2216.78 36002.88 534.74 373.65
2049 7.961 6.714 675.39 0.185 2210.85 35906.52 533.31 372.65
2050 8.163 6.849 1122.40 0.117 2204.92 35810.17 531.88 371.65
2051 8.371 6.988 2901.24 0.048 2198.99 35713.81 530.45 370.65
2052 8.585 7.131 6148.78 0.024 2193.07 35617.45 529.02 369.65
2053 8.805 7.277 1575.18 0.097 2187.14 35521.10 527.59 368.65
2054 9.032 7.428 929.95 0.172 2181.21 35424.74 526.16 367.65
2055 9.264 7.583 672.49 0.250 2175.28 35328.39 524.73 366.65
2056 9.504 7.743 534.04 0.330 2169.36 35232.03 523.29 365.65
2057 9.750 7.907 447.61 0.412 2163.43 35135.68 521.86 364.65
2058 10.002 8.075 388.52 0.496 2157.50 35039.32 520.43 363.65
2059 10.263 8.249 345.60 0.583 2151.57 34942.97 519.00 362.65
2060 10.530 8.427 313.01 0.672 2145.65 34846.61 517.57 361.65
2061 10.805 8.610 287.44 0.764 2139.72 34750.25 516.14 360.65
2062 11.088 8.799 266.84 0.858 2133.79 34653.90 514.71 359.65
2063 11.379 8.993 249.90 0.955 2127.86 34557.54 513.28 358.65
2064 11.678 9.192 235.73 1.054 2121.94 34461.19 511.84 357.65
2065 11.985 9.397 223.71 1.157 2116.01 34364.83 510.41 356.65
2066 12.301 9.608 213.38 1.262 2110.08 34268.48 508.98 355.65
2067 12.627 9.825 204.41 1.371 2104.15 34172.12 507.55 354.65
2068 12.961 10.048 196.56 1.482 2098.23 34075.76 506.12 353.65
2069 13.305 10.277 189.62 1.597 2092.30 33979.41 504.69 352.65
2070 13.659 10.513 183.46 1.715 2086.37 33883.05 503.26 351.65
2071 14.022 10.755 177.95 1.836 2080.44 33786.70 501.83 350.65
2072 14.397 9.798 125.15 3.675 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2073 14.781 7.854 100.00 6.927 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2074 15.177 8.118 100.00 7.059 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2075 15.584 8.389 100.00 7.195 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2076 16.003 8.669 100.00 7.334 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2077 16.433 8.956 100.00 7.478 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2078 16.876 9.251 100.00 7.625 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2079 17.332 9.554 100.00 7.777 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2080 17.800 9.867 100.00 7.933 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2081 18.282 10.188 100.00 8.094 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2082 18.778 10.518 100.00 8.259 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2083 19.287 10.858 100.00 8.429 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2084 19.812 11.208 100.00 8.604 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2085 20.351 11.567 100.00 8.784 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2086 20.906 11.937 100.00 8.969 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2087 21.476 12.318 100.00 9.159 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2088 22.063 12.709 100.00 9.354 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2089 22.667 13.111 100.00 9.556 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2090 23.288 13.525 100.00 9.763 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2091 23.927 13.951 100.00 9.976 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2092 24.584 14.389 100.00 10.195 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2093 25.260 14.840 100.00 10.420 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2094 25.955 15.303 100.00 10.652 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2095 26.670 15.780 100.00 10.890 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2096 27.406 16.271 100.00 11.135 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2097 28.163 16.775 100.00 11.388 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2098 28.941 17.294 100.00 11.647 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
2099 29.742 17.828 100.00 11.914 2076.62 33724.48 500.90 350.00
avg 6.61 GT-Carbon in CO2 form until 2072
to remediate 12.17 GT-C per year thereafter till 2099
If we do nothing at all:
1990 2.010 0.000 ------- ------ 2086.22 33880.57 503.22 353.02
1991 2.055 0.000 47.29 4.345 2095.71 34034.77 505.51 354.62
1992 2.100 0.000 47.46 4.425 2105.33 34191.28 507.84 356.24
1993 2.147 0.000 47.65 4.506 2115.10 34350.10 510.19 357.89
1994 2.195 0.000 47.84 4.588 2125.02 34511.23 512.59 359.56
1995 2.244 0.000 48.04 4.672 2135.07 34674.68 515.02 361.26
1996 2.295 0.000 48.24 4.757 2145.27 34840.43 517.48 362.98
1997 2.347 0.000 48.45 4.843 2155.61 35008.50 519.97 364.72
1998 2.400 0.000 48.67 4.930 2166.09 35178.88 522.50 366.49
1999 2.454 0.000 48.90 5.019 2176.71 35351.57 525.07 368.28
2000 2.510 0.000 49.13 5.109 2187.48 35526.57 527.67 370.10
2001 2.568 0.000 49.37 5.201 2198.38 35703.89 530.30 371.94
2002 2.626 0.000 49.61 5.294 2209.43 35883.51 532.97 373.80
2003 2.687 0.000 49.86 5.389 2220.63 36065.45 535.67 375.69
2004 2.749 0.000 50.11 5.485 2231.96 36249.69 538.41 377.60
2005 2.813 0.000 50.37 5.583 2243.44 36436.25 541.18 379.54
2006 2.878 0.000 50.64 5.683 2255.06 36625.12 543.99 381.50
2007 2.945 0.000 50.91 5.784 2266.82 36816.30 546.82 383.49
2008 3.013 0.000 51.18 5.887 2278.72 37009.80 549.70 385.49
2009 3.048 0.000 51.17 5.956 2290.76 37205.60 552.61 387.53
2010 3.112 0.000 51.40 6.055 2302.95 37403.72 555.55 389.58
2011 3.180 0.000 51.65 6.157 2315.28 37604.14 558.53 391.66
2012 3.250 0.000 51.91 6.261 2327.75 37806.88 561.54 393.77
2013 3.323 0.000 52.18 6.369 2340.37 38011.93 564.58 395.89
2014 3.399 0.000 52.47 6.479 2353.12 38219.29 567.66 398.05
2015 3.479 0.000 52.76 6.593 2366.02 38428.97 570.78 400.22
2016 3.561 0.000 53.07 6.709 2379.06 38640.95 573.93 402.42
2017 3.646 0.000 53.39 6.829 2392.25 38855.25 577.11 404.65
2018 3.735 0.000 53.72 6.952 2405.57 39071.85 580.33 406.89
2019 3.827 0.000 54.06 7.078 2419.04 39290.77 583.58 409.17
2020 3.922 0.000 54.41 7.208 2432.65 39512.00 586.86 411.46
2021 4.021 0.000 54.77 7.341 2446.40 39735.55 590.18 413.78
2022 4.124 0.000 55.14 7.478 2460.29 39961.40 593.54 416.13
2023 4.230 0.000 55.52 7.619 2474.33 40189.56 596.93 418.49
2024 4.340 0.000 55.91 7.764 2488.51 40420.04 600.35 420.89
2025 4.455 0.000 56.30 7.912 2502.83 40652.83 603.81 423.30
2026 4.560 0.000 56.63 8.051 2517.29 40887.92 607.30 425.74
2027 4.667 0.000 56.96 8.193 2531.89 41125.33 610.83 428.21
2028 4.778 0.000 57.30 8.338 2546.64 41365.06 614.39 430.69
2029 4.891 0.000 57.64 8.486 2561.53 41607.09 617.98 433.20
2030 5.008 0.000 57.98 8.637 2576.56 41851.43 621.61 435.74
2031 5.128 0.000 58.33 8.792 2591.73 42098.09 625.27 438.30
2032 5.252 0.000 58.68 8.949 2607.05 42347.05 628.97 440.88
2033 5.378 0.000 59.03 9.110 2622.51 42598.33 632.70 443.49
2034 5.509 0.000 59.39 9.275 2638.11 42851.92 636.47 446.12
2035 5.642 0.000 59.75 9.443 2653.85 43107.82 640.27 448.78
2036 5.780 0.000 60.11 9.615 2669.73 43366.04 644.11 451.46
2037 5.921 0.000 60.48 9.791 2685.76 43626.56 647.98 454.16
2038 6.067 0.000 60.85 9.971 2701.93 43889.40 651.88 456.89
2039 6.216 0.000 61.22 10.154 2718.24 44154.54 655.82 459.64
2040 6.370 0.000 61.59 10.342 2734.69 44422.00 659.79 462.42
2041 6.528 0.000 61.96 10.535 2751.29 44691.77 663.80 465.22
2042 6.690 0.000 62.34 10.731 2768.03 44963.85 667.84 468.04
2043 6.857 0.000 62.72 10.932 2784.91 45238.25 671.91 470.89
2044 7.028 0.000 63.10 11.138 2801.93 45514.95 676.02 473.76
2045 7.205 0.000 63.48 11.349 2819.09 45793.97 680.17 476.66
2046 7.386 0.000 63.87 11.564 2836.40 46075.29 684.35 479.58
2047 7.572 0.000 64.25 11.785 2853.85 46358.93 688.56 482.52
2048 7.764 0.000 64.64 12.011 2871.44 46644.88 692.81 485.49
2049 7.961 0.000 65.03 12.242 2889.17 46933.14 697.09 488.48
2050 8.163 0.000 65.42 12.479 2907.05 47223.71 701.40 491.50
2051 8.371 0.000 65.80 12.721 2925.06 47516.60 705.75 494.54
2052 8.585 0.000 66.19 12.970 2943.22 47811.79 710.14 497.60
2053 8.805 0.000 66.59 13.224 2961.52 48109.30 714.56 500.69
2054 9.032 0.000 66.98 13.485 2979.97 48409.12 719.01 503.80
2055 9.264 0.000 67.37 13.752 2998.55 48711.25 723.50 506.93
2056 9.504 0.000 67.76 14.025 3017.28 49015.69 728.02 510.09
2057 9.750 0.000 68.15 14.306 3036.15 49322.44 732.58 513.28
2058 10.002 0.000 68.54 14.593 3055.16 49631.51 737.17 516.48
2059 10.263 0.000 68.93 14.887 3074.32 49942.88 741.79 519.72
2060 10.530 0.000 69.33 15.189 3093.62 50256.57 746.45 522.97
2061 10.805 0.000 69.72 15.498 3113.06 50572.57 751.14 526.25
2062 11.088 0.000 70.11 15.816 3132.64 50890.88 755.87 529.55
2063 11.379 0.000 70.50 16.141 3152.36 51211.50 760.63 532.88
2064 11.678 0.000 70.88 16.474 3172.23 51534.43 765.43 536.23
2065 11.985 0.000 71.27 16.816 3192.23 51859.67 770.26 539.61
2066 12.301 0.000 71.66 17.166 3212.38 52187.23 775.13 543.01
2067 12.627 0.000 72.04 17.526 3232.68 52517.10 780.03 546.43
2068 12.961 0.000 72.43 17.895 3253.11 52849.27 784.96 549.88
2069 13.305 0.000 72.81 18.273 3273.69 53183.76 789.93 553.35
2070 13.659 0.000 73.19 18.661 3294.41 53520.56 794.93 556.85
2071 14.022 0.000 73.57 19.059 3315.27 53859.68 799.97 560.36
2072 14.397 0.000 73.95 19.468 3336.27 54201.10 805.04 563.91
2073 14.781 0.000 74.33 19.887 3357.42 54544.84 810.14 567.48
2074 15.177 0.000 74.70 20.317 3378.70 54890.88 815.28 571.07
2075 15.584 0.000 75.07 20.758 3400.13 55239.24 820.46 574.68
2076 16.003 0.000 75.44 21.211 3421.71 55589.91 825.67 578.32
2077 16.433 0.000 75.81 21.676 3443.42 55942.89 830.91 581.99
2078 16.876 0.000 76.18 22.153 3465.28 56298.18 836.19 585.67
2079 17.332 0.000 76.54 22.643 3487.27 56655.79 841.50 589.38
2080 17.800 0.000 76.90 23.146 3509.42 57015.70 846.84 593.12
2081 18.282 0.000 77.26 23.662 3531.70 57377.93 852.22 596.88
2082 18.778 0.000 77.62 24.192 3554.12 57742.47 857.64 600.66
2083 19.287 0.000 77.97 24.736 3576.69 58109.32 863.09 604.47
2084 19.812 0.000 78.32 25.295 3599.40 58478.48 868.57 608.30
2085 20.351 0.000 78.67 25.868 3622.25 58849.95 874.09 612.16
2086 20.906 0.000 79.02 26.457 3645.25 59223.73 879.64 616.03
2087 21.476 0.000 79.36 27.062 3668.38 59599.83 885.22 619.94
2088 22.063 0.000 79.70 27.684 3691.66 59978.23 890.84 623.86
2089 22.667 0.000 80.03 28.322 3715.08 60358.95 896.50 627.82
2090 23.288 0.000 80.37 28.977 3738.64 60741.98 902.19 631.79
2091 23.927 0.000 80.70 29.650 3762.35 61127.32 907.91 635.79
2092 24.584 0.000 81.02 30.342 3786.20 61514.97 913.67 639.81
2093 25.260 0.000 81.35 31.052 3810.19 61904.94 919.46 643.86
2094 25.955 0.000 81.67 31.781 3834.32 62297.21 925.29 647.93
2095 26.670 0.000 81.98 32.531 3858.59 62691.80 931.15 652.03
2096 27.406 0.000 82.30 33.301 3883.01 63088.70 937.04 656.15
2097 28.163 0.000 82.61 34.092 3907.56 63487.91 942.97 660.29
2098 28.941 0.000 82.91 34.905 3932.26 63889.43 948.94 664.46
2099 29.742 0.000 83.22 35.740 3957.11 64293.26 954.93 668.65
nothing to remediate...... which is unlikely to happen, but it shows that 450 ppm is reached by 2036
and that is when the plankton and krill will really start dying in cold water because the ocean becomes
too acidic according to James Hansen at Goddard Climate centre.
Also by 2082, it is likely that in many buildings, when ppm outside = 600 ppm that ppm inside buildings will reach 1000 ppm plus, the hazmat critical limit for CO2 exposure..... old and young would be susceptible to respiratory and heart and circulation ailments......
Note that according to the stanford paper from 1979, the total amount of CO2 the ocean is holding
is about 0.15 GT, compared to 940 or over 1000 GT in the atmosphere. I KNOW my atmosphere calculations are correct because gas laws are way easier to predict and be correct than the ocean situation.
But it leaves me feeling there must be a lot more in the ocean than that and pH (alkalinity) are crucial to estimating calcium carbonate activity limits and total carbon in the ocean. I will try and find other sources of measurement of the ocean before i make a final model, and will include the calcium carbonate modeling in the final model too. But my hunch is there is a lot more in the ocean than less than a GT given its square mileage and depth.
The Goddard information isn't available publicly. and one good source is www.scirus.com for free.
JPL should publish more, and the UN report doesn't say enough about technologies to remediate the situation.
The southern ocean is saturated with CO2 and no longer absorbs much from the atmosphere. According to this article, the worlds oceans have been saturated with CO2 since the 1980s....
http://www.spiegel.de/...
i believe the data above to be true as of Wed,Feb 25/2009 and that the oceans may be holding 65 times the amount of CARBON in the atmosphere in the oceans..... due to calcium carbonate pH chemistry... more will come of this and numbers may change. Any criticisms or comments are welcome.
Also krill and plankton (phytoplankton and zooplankton) may change the numbers yet again, for they consume CO2 , die and fall to the bottom and sequester carbon, while krill consume O2 , give off CO2 and grow and when they die, they give off CO2 and fall to the bottom, if not eaten before then. The biomass of fish is important too, please see an earlier post about this, as they breathe O2 from the ocean through their gills, and give off CO2, when they die instead of being eaten, they decompose and give off CO2 on their way to the ocean bottom. It is thus suspected that the ocean bottom has a higher than expected CO2, HCO3- , CO3_2- and H2CO3 or carbon profile.
It is not important whether the whole phenomena of global warming is man made or not..... what is important is : Is it significant? What can we do about it? What needs to be done about it? How do we do it?
ANNEX and supplemental information:
The big patch of rubbish in the pacific isn't getting any smaller, and the albedo is significantly being affected.
If we pass the tipping point on the arctic and siberian tundra methane off gasing , we are really in trouble, and James Hansen (see also 350.org) for info on reducing the CO2 ppm to 350 ppm.
Plankton and krill levels are rapidly decreasing by as much as 30% between 1999 and 2004
It is estimated that as much as 150 million tonnes of plankton (phytoplankton and zooplankton) are spawned each year, while the world food catch of shellfish and fish is about 100 million tonnes.
The shellfish and fish stocks are being projected in Science magazine to collapse by 2048 , if no reverse in emissions is done. Like any food chain, it depends on its foundations, so the krill and plankton, which form the foundation of the food chain, need to be protected and preserved at all costs.
The only sure way to prevent their decrease is by decreasing CO2 emissions and therefore by preserving the chemistry (pH) and temperature of the waters in our oceans. 80% of temperature increases are absorbed by the water in our oceans. We'd better harness bussard fusion as soon as reasonable and move to electric cars and fusion power plants if we are going to avoid the collapse of the oceans, and the food chain.
http://www.seakeepers.org/...
Acoustics sonar sounding of krill and plankton populations, are being used by the government and private foundations to assess the health and wellbeing of the foundation of our ocean food chain.
Look at:
http://www-sci.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/...
and:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/...
http://www.ifremer.fr/...
http://www.sciencedirect.com/...
http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/...
and this one that is especially important
http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/...
it has been reported that fish stocks are rising immensely in arctic and cooler waters, and that the biomass may have moved from equatorial zones to temperate and cool zones...... this is a blessing but also a curse, because if global warming persists, these cool zones will become warm and the arctic and antarctic will melt, and methane will be released from the tundra and siberia, and the fish stocks will have nowhere else to go.
Critical are the krill and plankton species that are very sensitive to ocean pH acidity or alkalinity, calcium carbonate reservoirs, and temperature.
Grade Nine's in Utah can teach us a thing or two about the oceans and carbon dioxide....
In these class notes for Grade Nines, is a key experiment that illustrates mixing and diffusion and gas absorption. Also there are some articles about plant life and ocean circulation from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Boy i wish my Grade 9 class had had this course...!!!!
http://www.wested.org/...
Read on if you want to see a possible action plan for breaking CO2 to C and O2 with Bussard Fusion using UV light photons to break the CO2 double bonds and use magnetic fields and sound and heat to separate C and O2 on large scales to reduce the CO2 from oceans and atmosphere. It is 1 million times more efficient to separate CO2 from southern ocean sea water 100 metres down than to pump it and separate it from the air.
Bussard of Bussard Ramjet fame, gives talk on nuclear fusion, and how to do it safely and why ITER and Tokamuk are not the best
http://www.hobbyspace.com/...
The Advent of Clearn Nuclear Fusion: Superperformance Space Power and Propulsion by Robert W Bussard, Int. Astronautical Congress, Oct.2006
http://www.askmar.com/...
http://video.google.com/...
for info on the tokamuk at Cadarache , France, see:
http://www.iter.org/
New papers that illustrate the amount of biomass in the oceans, finally estimated and how the diffusion of gases into and off gassing from the oceans remains the big unknown in the whole CO2 equation.
Global dimming reports show Europe brightened and Asia dimmed and North America pretty flat.
I will follow up with diffusion simulations and calcium carbonate simulations later this year.
I know that at realclimate.org reports are showing the southern ocean to be saturated according to henry's law and off gassing, and that the thermohaline and ocean circulation phenomena , not to mention hurricanes are important as well as volcanos and solar flares.
In the pressure calculations of the spreadsheet, i used maple12 and the following formulas to solve for a linear gravitational change in the pressure and hence density as a function of altitude to 44400 metres,
the formula is as follows:
> restart; dsolve({(diff(P(h), h))/P(h) = -(1/1000)*M*(g0+a*h)/(R*(T0+b*h)), P(0) = P0}, P(h));
print(P(h) = P0*(T0+b*h)^(-(1/1000)*M*(b*g0-T0*a)/(R*b^2))*exp(-(1/1000)*M*a*h/(R*b))/T0^(-(1/1000)*M*(b*g0-T0*a)
/(R*b^2)));
Where (a = negative 0.00000307) per metre is the coefficient of changing gravity derived from the 2004 to 2005 85th edition of the US standard atmosphere as mentioned in the comments below...... g is not 9.806 for the entire altitude from zero to 44400 metres, there is negligible CO2 and negligible atmosphere for the calculations to make any sense after this altitude, in fact they return NANs.....
(b = negative 0.0064898) and is the Kelvin temperature difference with altitude per metre.
I used 15 degrees C converted to Kelvin as the start temperature at zero altitude because this is the average temperature of the planet at the surface. I should have used the 50% median or centroid , centre of mass would have been better , but i could not find figures for it anywhere so settled for the average.
I have defined ppm as moles per litre of CO2 divided by moles per litre of total gas present, giving a ppm reading that is a number density , at the same altitude , both have the same volumetric space and temperature, so it is just the ratio of partial pressure of CO2 to total pressure at that altiude for the number density. it changes with altitude and volume changes and temperature drops and gravitational variation.