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I finally decide write a diary about the race in Alaska, allways difficult for democratic party. In last years democratic party make so decent races with very few candidates. In last elections, M Begich young candidate defeat T Stivens old senator. Good victory for democrats.

This will be a difficult race for democrats, like we can see in next link:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

And that if democratic party can run with the frontrunner of the party for all important races in last years. If T Knowles not run, will be very difficult make a decent race, but if run, we must think a rematch of 2004 race against incumbent senator L Murkowski can be unfavourable for T Knowles. L Murkowski seems not weak now. Republican incumbent is winning the approval in her home state, after start like the daughter of his father.

We heard about a possible primary between S Palin governor and L Murkowski senator, but now seems difficult we see that because S Palin have few for win. If she win can get dammaged in her party, and the loser of this possible primary have very much for lose.

I think the logical way for Sarah Palin can be run for reelection in 2010, and challenge M Begich in 2014. She can run too for President in 2012 or 2016. That like tell M Begich must make very good work for can win his reelection because is very probably S Palin became his next challenger. A possible race against S Palin can be like a war. We know S Palin.

It can be interesting see anything about gubernatorial race in 2010 in Alaska:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.

Very difficult too.

For 2010 AK-Sen race, this is the list of possible candidates:

  1. Anthony Carroll Knowles: OK AK 1943 Governor of Alaska 94-02. Lost for Senate 04. Lost for Governor 90 and 06.
  1. Stephen McAlpine: WA AK 1949 Lieutenant Governor of AK 82-90. Lost for Governor 94.
  1. Francis Ulmer: WI AK 1947 Lieutenant Governor of AK 94-02. Lost for Governor 02.
  1. Hollis French: MA AK 1958

Like we can see the list is short. Hollis French is a member of bipartisan majority (what include all democrats but not all republicans) in the Alaska Senate distinguished in the investigation of charges against S Palin.

I like encourage democrats from Alaska for new races like this. I think they are happy with M Begich victory.

I remember the resumes of these series of diaries about senate and gubernatorial races:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All senate races.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All gubernatorial races.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Safe democratic incumbents?

NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%.

HI-Sen: L Lingle (R-1953) vs D Inouye (D-1924) ? after 20 votes = 09,417 => Safe Democratic
VT-Sen: J Douglas (R-1951) vs P Leahy (D-1940) ? after 25 votes = 09,133 => Safe Democratic
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? af 30 votes = 08,722 Safe Democr
AR-Sen: open R vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? after 17 votes = 08,725 => Safe Democratic
IN-Sen: M Daniels (R-1949) vs E Bayh (D-1955) ? after 20 votes = 08,500 => Likely Democratic
IL-Sen: open R vs ? after 26 votes = 08,269 => Likely Democratic
ND-Sen: J Hoeven (R-1957) vs B Dorgan (D-1942) ? af 18 votes = 07,870 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? af 67 votes = 07,811 => Likely Democrat
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 39 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 35 votes = 07,762 => Likely Democratic
N NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs J Lynch (D-1952) ? af 20 votes = 07,583 => Likely Democratic
N? OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 14 votes = 07,381 => Likely Dem
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 50 votes = 07,067 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 12 votes = 06,944 => Leans Democratic
N? CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 06,714 => Leans Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? af 32 votes = 06,146 => Leans Democratic
N? AR-Sen: M Huckabee (R-1955) vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? af 24 votes = 05,972 => Leans Democ
N? KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 21 votes = 05,952 => Leans Democr
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 37 votes = 05,631 => Toss-Up
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 11 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 34 votes = 05,098 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 45 votes = 04,926 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 59 votes = 03,616 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
2 FL-Sen: C Crist (R-1956) vs ? after 34 votes = 03,480 => Leans Republican
N? IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? af 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republic
AK-Sen: L Murkowski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ? af 17 votes = 02,451 => Likely Republ
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs ? after 23 votes = 02,319 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 20 votes = 01,250 => Safe Republican

*: The diary about Florida with an * is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate

And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.

All the polls are open.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.

Originally posted to abgin on Fri Mar 20, 2009 at 12:56 AM PDT.

Poll

AK-Sen: L Murkowski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ?

9%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
13%3 votes
22%5 votes
40%9 votes
13%3 votes

| 22 votes | Vote | Results

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