I finally decide write a diary about the race in Alaska, allways difficult for democratic party. In last years democratic party make so decent races with very few candidates. In last elections, M Begich young candidate defeat T Stivens old senator. Good victory for democrats.
This will be a difficult race for democrats, like we can see in next link:
And that if democratic party can run with the frontrunner of the party for all important races in last years. If T Knowles not run, will be very difficult make a decent race, but if run, we must think a rematch of 2004 race against incumbent senator L Murkowski can be unfavourable for T Knowles. L Murkowski seems not weak now. Republican incumbent is winning the approval in her home state, after start like the daughter of his father.
We heard about a possible primary between S Palin governor and L Murkowski senator, but now seems difficult we see that because S Palin have few for win. If she win can get dammaged in her party, and the loser of this possible primary have very much for lose.
I think the logical way for Sarah Palin can be run for reelection in 2010, and challenge M Begich in 2014. She can run too for President in 2012 or 2016. That like tell M Begich must make very good work for can win his reelection because is very probably S Palin became his next challenger. A possible race against S Palin can be like a war. We know S Palin.
It can be interesting see anything about gubernatorial race in 2010 in Alaska:
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.
Very difficult too.
For 2010 AK-Sen race, this is the list of possible candidates:
- Anthony Carroll Knowles: OK AK 1943 Governor of Alaska 94-02. Lost for Senate 04. Lost for Governor 90 and 06.
- Stephen McAlpine: WA AK 1949 Lieutenant Governor of AK 82-90. Lost for Governor 94.
- Francis Ulmer: WI AK 1947 Lieutenant Governor of AK 94-02. Lost for Governor 02.
- Hollis French: MA AK 1958
Like we can see the list is short. Hollis French is a member of bipartisan majority (what include all democrats but not all republicans) in the Alaska Senate distinguished in the investigation of charges against S Palin.
I like encourage democrats from Alaska for new races like this. I think they are happy with M Begich victory.
I remember the resumes of these series of diaries about senate and gubernatorial races:
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%.
HI-Sen: L Lingle (R-1953) vs D Inouye (D-1924) ? after 20 votes = 09,417 => Safe Democratic
VT-Sen: J Douglas (R-1951) vs P Leahy (D-1940) ? after 25 votes = 09,133 => Safe Democratic
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? af 30 votes = 08,722 Safe Democr
AR-Sen: open R vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? after 17 votes = 08,725 => Safe Democratic
IN-Sen: M Daniels (R-1949) vs E Bayh (D-1955) ? after 20 votes = 08,500 => Likely Democratic
IL-Sen: open R vs ? after 26 votes = 08,269 => Likely Democratic
ND-Sen: J Hoeven (R-1957) vs B Dorgan (D-1942) ? af 18 votes = 07,870 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? af 67 votes = 07,811 => Likely Democrat
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 39 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 35 votes = 07,762 => Likely Democratic
N NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs J Lynch (D-1952) ? af 20 votes = 07,583 => Likely Democratic
N? OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 14 votes = 07,381 => Likely Dem
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 50 votes = 07,067 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 12 votes = 06,944 => Leans Democratic
N? CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 06,714 => Leans Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? af 32 votes = 06,146 => Leans Democratic
N? AR-Sen: M Huckabee (R-1955) vs B Lincoln (D-1960) ? af 24 votes = 05,972 => Leans Democ
N? KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 21 votes = 05,952 => Leans Democr
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 37 votes = 05,631 => Toss-Up
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 11 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 34 votes = 05,098 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 45 votes = 04,926 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 59 votes = 03,616 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
2 FL-Sen: C Crist (R-1956) vs ? after 34 votes = 03,480 => Leans Republican
N? IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? af 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republic
AK-Sen: L Murkowski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ? af 17 votes = 02,451 => Likely Republ
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs ? after 23 votes = 02,319 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 20 votes = 01,250 => Safe Republican
*: The diary about Florida with an * is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.