Two years ago I bought a house, thinking the housing market had bottomed out (1 year later I sold it)
8 months ago, I bought Goldman Saks thinking the the bank stocks had gown down as far as they would.
I actually believed Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction (I still opposed the war, I'm not that dumb)
In late December I wrote my first diary on DailyKos titled "Holder nomination battle a diversion for Bush pardons" (I deleted it later to hide my shame).
I get everything wrong, I have for a long time. Whenever I make a prediction, I make it boldly, speak it with certainty in my voice, and look like a fool several weeks later. A few years back, I figured I would start predicting the opposite of whatever I thought would happen, hoping my bad luck would finally lead to validation. For the first and only time in my life, all of my instincts were right (Both Obama and McCain got their respective party nominations). Of course, publicly I predicted it would be Guiliani vs Clinton--wrong again.
With rare examples, the person I vote for never wins my state or district. The only times my candidate has won my state or district, they have lost at the national level. I am beginning to believe that I must always live in red states, if only to allow for democrats to be elected president.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a pretty smart guy on a few things. I have a Ph.D., I am a professor at a great university, and I know more minutia about ancient Asia than any human really should. I am even fairly handy around the house, insulating my attic, building furniture, and fixing my own car. I am an egghead, but not a complete egghead. Remember the old TIAA-CREF ads, "managing money for people with other things to think about." That's me.
So why do I bring up my own dumb self. Simple. I haven't a fucking clue what is going to happen to the economy, or what the best plan is to fix it. Not A Clue.
Its not for lack of trying. I read the blogs of numerous economists (Bonddad included). I tend to like Krugman, but I really don't actually understand the reasons he believes what he believes. I read people who critique Krugman, and pretty much miss the whole argument.
I bring this up because I suspect that I am not alone in being dumb. In the last week I have read several diaries that seem so certain in their conviction that one economic plan is best and another a catastrophe. I have even commented in a few. I am not sure why I commented on them, cause I really have no idea what the hell I was talking about because I am dumb.
Am I alone here? Are others as dumb as me on all of this?