Before you scroll down to flame my first comment I want to say that I wholly support a full prosecution of all War Crimes committed by the Bush Administration. I have signed every petition that I have run across in support. A Truth Commission needs many caveats and I agree it could lead to a burying of what is critical to regaining our national soul - prosecution.
However;
The howls of indignation that would be heard around the country if the President were to be seen as pushing for prosecutions would be deafening. I believe that we would see a firestorm more furious than we have seen over the President's other agenda items. The current cacophony of voices against the administration would seem to be mere nit-picking in comparison.
President Obama has chosen to say that we should "look forward". Behind this comment may be a strategy that is very deliberate.
Obama's position on torture was made clear on day one of his presidency when he signed the Executive Order banning it. IMO our President is certainly aware what a political hot potato this is in terms of the previous Administration and his own future Presidency. He is also, I am sure, aware of how this has been handled in the past.
President Ford chose to punt when he pardoned Nixon. He did not see the consequences of his actions in terms of the future precedent that he would set. The National mood at that time could have stood for a full investigation and prosecution of Nixon's crimes. Ford, a member of Nixon's own party, would have been seen as just the person assigned to clean things up and prevent future Executive crimes from occurring. He had no political baggage himself, or perceived agenda. Nixon was thoroughly hated at that time and the media was seen as the good guy. They were the ones that had broken the story. The public and Congress were generally united in their horror that a sitting President engaged in criminal activity. Ford should have taken this all the way to court and set the bar high for any future Administration considering illegal acts.
Now the mood is different. The crimes are more horrific, the precedent was already set. The media and the public are on a different plane today.
So what is the Obama Administration's strategy?
My guess would be this; Any sign from Obama that he plans to begin full prosecution of all War Crimes and criminals from the previous administration would seriously cripple his ability to enact the rest of his agenda. It would impact his ability to govern as I believe he sees it as a major distraction to the long list of crisis' that he must immediately address. His priority list is long. There is a lot of talk of political capital and we may scoff, but it is true. I imagine there was a lot of discussion on how to handle this between Obama and his advisors and it was determined that it must be initiated completely outside his circle. To do otherwise would risk too much and too much is at stake.
Eric Holder cannot initiate it because he is a part of the Administration. He can and has done what he should without too much political damage. He has released some of the memos with promises of more to come. As an extension of the Adminstration he will most likely not call for immediate prosecution. He will wait until an outside group that has been banging the drum slowly and in increasing volume brings the public to the conclusion they want. Only then can Holder call for a DOJ investigation. Obama can then also call for prosecution as what the public wants. The Truth Commission is where they want this to start.
I know that there are signs that we have pointed to and called out. Little things here and there that make us scratch our head. They appear to support the previous administration's stance. Or they are just not forceful enough to make us feel that it is a priority. I know that it is frustrating in the extreme. We ask why are they unwilling to come out and say what we want. But I believe Obama is walking a fine line here and he recognizes the deep abyss on both sides. He has chosen to walk this line the best way he knows how. The choice for him is between moving this country forward to a place where we can handle the subsequent firestorm of prosecutions or allowing it to happen now when we are not prepared. I say this because I believe that we are a weakened country.
After eight years of horror we know we want something different but we need to fully recover our credibility and strength. What would be the consequence of trying and then failing to bring these people to justice? The voices on the right are loud and they are trying to rip away a small slice of our strength every day. This is nothing compared to the long knives that would be brandished if Obama were to say or be perceived to say "I call for immediate investigation and prosecution of the previous administration." You know the media or the GOP joke would be happy to put those words into his mouth if he even hinted that it was his ultimate goal. They would immediately pounce and then run with it until they had stirred up a frenzy that could freeze government. Imagine the consequences. I find it hard to even put it into words. My imagination is enough to envision how this country could be torn apart by the divisions over our very honor as a nation.
If it is perceived that someone outside the Administration has initiated the investigation and prosecution, then we have a better chance of it leading to the desired outcome. The Republicans will try to say it is only a witch hunt from the Administration against the minority party. They will paint it as a vendetta to destroy the opposition. The Administration has a better chance if it is not tied to them as they will have clean hands. They need the public will to be behind moving this forward as that will drive the conversation and achieve our ultimate goal. The Truth Commission is most likely how they see this strategy playing out. Congress would be able to use a bi-partisan panel that would provide good political cover because the alternative would be untenable.
Obama has said many times that we must be the change. He is right. We must drive the conversation, we must push the agenda, we are the voice that needs to be heard.
Can we afford to follow Obama's strategy? Can we afford not to?