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Thanks to David over at Swing State Project, we now have data on how every congressional district voted for POTUS for the last several elections.  This is a treasure trove for geeks like me.  That list is here.

Today, I look at districts where a Republican is the representative, but Obama won, and Obama did markedly better than Kerry.  I call these "new pickup possibles".  I give some details about each district, along with the rank of the current rep from 1 (most liberal) to 435 (most conservative) per nominate data.

In these districts, Obama got 50% or more,  Kerry less than 45%.  I put the barrier lower for Kerry because he did about 5 points worse than Obama in the average CD.

CA 24 CA 25 CA 26 CA 44 CA 45 CA 50
IL 16
MI 4
NE 2
VA 4  VA 10
WI 6

Look at all those CA districts!  

Going one by one

CA-24 is Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, except for a tiny strip along the coast.  Current rep. is Elton Gallegly, ranked 341; in last 3 elections he got 58% (2008), 62% and 63%.  Obama got 51%, Kerry and Gore each got 43%. It's a wealthy district (median income $61,400) with almost a quarter of the population is Latino.

CA-25 is a weirdly boot-shaped district, with the leg part along the Nevada border and the toe in Santa Clarita, near LA.  Current rep is "Buck" McKeon, ranked 356; last 3: 53, 58, 64.  Obama got 50, Kerry 40, Gore 42.  Over 1/4 Latino.

CA-26 is a blob shaped district of suburbs of LA.  Current rep is David Dreier, ranked 366; last 3: 53, 57, 55.  Obama got 51, Kerry and Gore got 44 each.  It's another wealthy district (median income $58,968) with about a quarter Latinos.

CA-44 is mostly Riverside county.  Current rep is Calvert, ranked 318; last 3: 52, 60, 62.  Obama got 50, Kerry 40, Gore 44. It's just over half White, and just over 1/3 Latino.

CA-45  is exurbs of LA, the "inland empire".  Current rep is Bono, ranked 291; last 3: 57, 61, 67.  Obama got 52, Kerry 43, Gore 47.  This district has some very wealthy places (e.g. Palm Springs), but the median income is only $40,468, and 15% are in poverty; it's also 38% Latino (41st most in the USA).

CA-50  is San Diego and some suburbs. Current rep is Bilbray, ranked 371; last 3: 50, 53, 54.  Obama got 51, Kerry 44, Gore 43.  Median income is almost $60,000, about 10% Asian and 19% Latino.

IL-16  is the northwest corner of IL.  Current rep is Manzullo, ranked 345; last 3: 61, 64, 69.  Obama got 51, Kerry 44, Gore 43. IL-16 is not distinctive, demographically.  

MI-04  is farmland in the center of MI.  Current rep is Camp, ranked 327; last 3: 62, 61, 64.  Obama got 50, Kerry and Gore 44 each.  This is the 20th least urban district in the USA, and the 46th "whitest" (93% White).  

NE-02  is Omaha and its western suburbs.  Current rep is Terry, ranked 373; last 2 elections: 52 and 56 (elected 2006).  Obama got 50, Kerry 38, Gore 39. Only 4 districts had bigger swings to Obama from Kerry (HI-01 and 02, IN-04 and 07).  NE-02 is not distinctive, demographically.  

VA-04 is Tidewater country.  Current rep is Forbes, ranked 339; last 3: 60, 76, 64 (no Dem in 2006).  Obama got 50, Kerry 43, Gore 44.  VA-04 has the 48th most Blacks (33%), the 5th most Blacks of any district with a Republican rep. (the other 3 are all in Lousiana (02, 04, 05, and 06).

VA-10 is northern VA, including the Beltway.  Current rep is Wolf, ranked 266; last 3: 59, 57, 54.  Obama got 53, Kerry 44, Gore 41.    VA-10 is the 10th wealthiest district (median income = $71,560).

WI-06 is central WI.  Current rep is Petri, ranked 390; last 3: 64, 56, 53 (the only district in this list where the rep is increasing his lead).  Obama got 50, Kerry 43, Gore 42. Per the Almanac of American Politics, it has the highest percentage of German-Americans.  It's also the 22nd 'Whitest' (94%), 94th most rural, 30th least Black, and 38th fewest in poverty (although median income is only about $44,000).

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 09:25 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

    •  Great analysis (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RunawayRose, plf515, Predictor, swampus

      Maps would be helpful. You can use the dailykos election map; though I'm not sure if you can access the API for it if you're not a frontpager.

    •  Obama lost my district but the congressional race (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RunawayRose, plf515

      .... was almost a tie in CA- 04, as the Republican McClintock got in by one half of a percentage point, or less than 2,000 votes, vs the Democrat Brown.  The voter registration broke down to about half are now Dems or Independents and the other half are Republicans, before in 2006 the Republicans had the registration advantage.

      The Republican was carried by all the so- called "family values" hypocrisy voters voting on 2 propositions designed to drag them to the polls to vote Republican-  one was the usual anti abortion prop they do every election, on parental notification, and the other one  was the notorious Prop 8, the one where the so- called family values people wanted to ban same gender marriages, which was heavily financed and worked by the LDS Church and the Knights of Columbus, with the Southern Baptists being the hidden partner.

       Out of all the issues and candidates on the ballot, Prop 8 got the most number of voters voting on it -  I looked at the breakdown of the numbers after the election, and it was obvious that something very funky was going on in terms of that ballot issue drawing so many more votes than anything else, especially during a Presidential election.

      I have no idea what is going to happen in 2010 other than the carpetbagging lifelong career politician who has the seat will run for re election, because it's such an easy job for him to show up in Washington DC three days a week and just vote "no" on everything.  This makes the lunatic base very happy.  I don't know if the Republicans will bother to seriously primary him.

      I am not optimistic about receiving any sort of support from the national Democratic organizations about trying to flip the seat, because I have come to the conclusion they like having a Republican wing nut in the seat.   I believe they are willing to sacrifice a few House seats here and there because they have a comfortable enough majority.

      The good news is that McClintock is such an idiot he is already seriously aggravating a lot of the saner Republicans in the area. He will never be popular because every time he opens his mouth it is painfully obvious he doesn't really have talent to be anything other than an embarrassment-  and they are stuck with him.  

      "Toads of Glory, slugs of joy... as he trotted down the path before a dragon ate him"-Alex Hall/ Stop McClintock

      by AmericanRiverCanyon on Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 11:57:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I forgot to say that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RunawayRose, plf515

        .... many of the religious conservatives of a certain denomination in my district (and there are a lot of them, compared to other parts of the country ) just cannot bring themselves to ever vote for a person of color, no matter how competent. It is institutionalized racism, and it is going to change very slowly, if ever.  They didn't like McCain very much, either, so a lot of them went to one of the 3rd party candidates as a protest vote. They're really into Ron Paul. They would have voted for McCain if Romney had stayed in as VP, and I think a lot of them were shocked when McCain picked Palin instead, because their sexism is also institutionalized and they have very strict tenets about the role of women in society-  they are to be submissive and not in positions of authority.

        "Toads of Glory, slugs of joy... as he trotted down the path before a dragon ate him"-Alex Hall/ Stop McClintock

        by AmericanRiverCanyon on Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 12:07:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I live in CA-24 (5+ / 0-)

    And was pleasantly surprised to see Obama win this district. I'd always thought of this is a safe red district, but I was wrong!

    Gallegly's been around for so long, it would take a great candidate to beat him. I hope we find one.

  •  Information I would add... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RunawayRose, plf515

    If you can happen to find it, would be the level of spending by the incumbent v. challengers in the last three cycles.  If (to pick a race I know nothing about)Wolf's opponent in VA-10 spent $1.5 million, that seat may not be easy to crack.  If on the other hand, he/she only spent $50K, there may be a pickup for a legitimate contender.

    I would also ask how state legislative races perform in these districts, and perhaps statewide candidates such as AG or Treasurer.  I say that because Presidential results aren't a good indicator as to the "true" nature of a district.  They are part of the analysis, but not the whole picture.

  •  WI-06 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RunawayRose, plf515

    Petri's safe. He's relatively moderate, has quite good constituent service. If Ed Thompson ran as a Libertarian he could play spoiler, but Petri's one of the few Republicans Ed likes.



    "extremist civil libertarian ben masel" - IHateBush, 3/27/09

    by ben masel on Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 10:36:08 AM PDT

  •  You forgot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RunawayRose, plf515

    IL-6, IL-13, and MI-6.  All three of those districts went for Bush by double digits and then flipped to Obama.

    The Rethug Party are anti-American traitors. The Congressional Rethugs form a fifth column intent on destruction of America.

    by IhateBush on Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 10:41:19 AM PDT

    •  Per the table at Swing State (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RunawayRose

      In IL-06, Kerry got 46%, in IL-13 he got 45% and in MI-06 he got 46%, so they don't qualify for THIS diary.  But they will be in part 2, which is places where Obama won, Kerry got over 45%, and there is a Republican rep.

      Only IL-13 went for Bush by double digits, and that just barely (55-45).

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