Even as the United States of America has a black president, black representation at the highest statewide levels of U.S. politics lags. Obama himself was the only black U.S. senator, and today his seat still is held by the Senate's only African-American, the controversial Roland Burris. There are two black governors: the embattled, unelected David Paterson of NY and Deval Patrick of Massachusetts.
Burris is highly unlikely to remain a U.S. senator after his term is up. News reports that he only raised $845 in the first quarter of 2010 makes a successful run for a full term a virtual impossibility. Of course, his massive unpopularity and the dubious circumstances in which he succeeded to the seat would be likely to doom him regardless of his fundraising success.
Does this mean that in 2011, the Senate will once again lack any members of the nation's largest racial minority?
Surveying the Senate landscape in 2010, only one serious race has an African-American candidate in the running at this time. In Florida, Rep. Kendrick Meek is the odds-on favorite to be the Democratic nominee for the seat left open by Mel Martinez (R). Meek has the active support of Bill Clinton and has top Obama campaign adviser Steve Hildebrand working for him. But Meek's odds of winning the Senate seat will decline significantly if Republican Gov. Charlie Crist runs for the seat, as Democratic insiders now suspect he will do. Against a lesser Republican opponent, Meek still would have no better than even odds in a Republican-leaning state and in a potentially difficult midterm cycle.
Outside Florida, there are few seats where there are credible black candidates. If Roland Burris declines to run for a full term, then in Illinois, Rep. Danny Davis may run. But Davis would likely struggle in a primary against State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has the support of the party establishment and Sen. Dick Durbin. He'd also likely be a far weaker general election candidate than Giannoulias, especially against Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. And in Maryland, there had earlier been rumors that incumbent Barbara Mikulski might retire, which would make Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown a likely candidate. So far, though, it looks as though Mikulski is staying put.
The governorships look a little more promising. Though David Paterson is likely a dead duck, Deval Patrick will probably be reelected in spite of his mediocre approval ratings, and Artur Davis in Alabama and Thurbert Baker in Georgia face uphill battles but plausible odds at winning.
The consolation is that in several states, there are very promising young African-American elected officials who are just not positioned to win a Senate seat at the moment. People like Corey Booker, the aforementioned Anthony Brown, and numerous officials in Illinois (Will Burns, Kwame Raoul) all have the strong potential to win statewide races or Senate races at some point in the next decade.
So should we lament the likelihood that there will be no black senators in 2011 or be optimistic that there will be more in the near future?