last update: I'm off to travel, but this linked story from the comments paints almost the opposite picture, and I think it is important for perspective (suggests this flu may be less deadly than 'regular flu': http://www.latimes.com/...
Only time will tell, so it's important to see all sides of the story. I'll freely admit I could be wrong - this just my humble opinion.
minor update: Looks like while writing this another was posted with about the same title, my bad! See: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Forgive me for engaging in meta-diary making, but I wanted to add another perspective to the debate on this site about the flu Pandemic.
First - I agree entirely that the talk about closing borders is foolish. People are in much more dangerous on a crowded inter city flight or a domestic flight than they are in a car crossing the Mexican border.
Obama said last night that he won't close the border, and the fact that it would be too late for that to do any good is cause for MORE alarm, not less.
A little background - I'm a former student of Biology and soon-to-be law student, so take this with a grain of salt. I'm certainly more informed than your average citizen, but I'm not a PhD on infectious disease or anything.
Flu Facts:
- The flu makes you sick. The flu can kill people with compromised immune systems, the very young and the very old. This flu also kills healthy adults across the spectrum.
From Reuters:
Cordova said the victims ranged from children, through young adults and middle-aged people to the elderly, a different pattern to common seasonal flu that mainly only kills infants and old people. "The distribution doesn't follow a fixed pattern," he said.
Source: http://in.reuters.com/...
This flu will NOT kill most of the people that get it. Best estimates for the incredibly deadly 1918 pandemic were mortality rates between 2 and 5%. But a new strain of the flu for which the population doesn't have developed anti-bodies that is uncharacteristically deadly and has spread globally before being discovered... is the perfect storm. It's not a reason to panic, but this outbreak of flu is about as bad as we could have expected - and we're going to have to deal with that reality.
Here's some scary math: If 15% of Americans catch H1N1 (roughly half the precentage of Americans estimated to catch the 1918 version) and the mortality rate of those infected is around 2% (the low end of the estimated mortality rate from 1918) then almost one million Americans will die as a result of the H1N1 pandemic.
I'm not saying it WILL happen, nor am I endorsing the accuracy of those figures - but it's a thought experiment that puts into context the terrifying consequences of new, global disease. This is why we have a CDC, why our federal government is all over this, why our politicians are making suggestions - both wise and foolhardy. Because it's not "just the flu".
For some background on the 1918 flu that bears many resemblances to this flu, see: http://www.cdc.gov/... . Note the mortality rate was above 2.5% compared to the .1% of regular flu - a 2500% increase in lethality. It may not be that high this time around - especially in developed nations - but it is all but certain to be roughly an order of magnitude more fatal than 'just the flu'.
- The spread of the flu is very likely exponentially worse than it would seem based exclusively on reported cases
The CDC is a fantastic and necessary organization, but their process for confirming a case of the flu is time consuming and slow when compared to the process of spreading the disease. Think back to the number of times you've had the flu - how many times have you had blood work** done to find out what strain? Think about this: The incubation period for the flu also happens to be the time when an infected person is most contagious. That means you are very likely if not most likely to spread the flu before you know you have it. Once you have it, particularly before news of the outbreak, you'd have to be pretty sick to go into a doctor much less get bloodwork done once there. Imagine how much this may have spread before our first recognized case - the CDC fully expects more cases and more deaths because they KNOW that their process for identifying cases is behind the curve of the disease spreading.
**UPDATE: A commenter suggests that you don't need a bloodtest to determine if it is H1N1. Forgive me if that is wrong, but I still believe the process takes a fair amount of time to test and verify, regardless of the method.
Flu Myths:
- Closing the border with Mexico will limit the spread of the disease
There's no way. It's being used by too many on the right as hateful anti-immigrant speech. We've got it in the U.S. now and that means almost all infections to come will be from those in the U.S., to people in the U.S.
- The Swine Flu came from pigs, so we should avoid eating pork and lobby against pig farming practices!
While this H1N1 strain does appear to have mutated from a swine flu, and while it is likely that it came from a large pig farm where pigs were in close contact with humans, that does NOT mean it was the only way it could have happened - or even that it was more likely. Humans live in close proximity to animals in a lot of different contexts, and the freak accident of nature that causes disease to jump between species can happen as readily in a small farm in Iowa as in a mega farm in Mexico.
The other big point is that the inter-species jump has already happen. Nobody will get the flu from being near a pig, nobody will get the flu from eating pork. The scary thing is that it is now spreading from human to human.
- H1N1 might be deadly in Mexico, but for some reason it's not fatal in the U.S.!
It's the same disease, but in this respect it really IS the flu. There are reports of rapid deaths from the 1918 pandemic, but the study linked above suggests the majority of deaths were from complications such as bacterial pneumonia. An MSNBC report yesterday shed some light on the first fatal case in America:
On April 4th the boy entered the U.S. to visit. Soon after he got sick, and was taken to the hospital on April 8th. "A few days later" (going on memory from the briefing I saw live) he was transferred to a Houston hospital. He died on Monday, April 27th. The H1N1 infection was confirmed and media got the story on Wednesday, April 29th.
While this might not be the most common progression of the disease, it is a clear example of the fact that the deaths are not quick. 16 days from now, it is tragically very likely that many of those currently diagnosed cases will suffer a similar fate to this boy. The U.S. currently has fewer deaths because the disease has been here for less time and spread less dramatically - NOT because our version is somehow less deadly.
- Antibiotics have anything to do with this flu outbreak
I haven't read this one as much here, but I have seen it discussed on other forums. The flu is caused by a virus, and antibiotics exclusively treat and effect bacterial infections. Use or misuse of antibiotics have absolutely no impact on the spread of the flu, but they may have ramifications on any resulting pneumonia (which is a secondary bacterial infection and relatively common influenza complication).
I apologize if this is scary, and I honestly don't want to spread panic. But we NEED to know what we're up against. This is more scary for the country than it is for any one person reading this: Your odds of dying from H1N1 are very low, and the odds of anybody you know dying is also quite low. Especially since the outbreak still might be diminished if not entirely contained. But multiplying those small percentages across the population of the U.S. and the world and you can see just how (penchant for the dramatic moment) cataclysmic this outbreak can be.
Some flu tips:
- Wash your hands! This is the best way to avoid the flu. Failing or in addition to that, keep them away from your face! People with the flu are contagious long before they start coughing.
- Be especially vigilant in public and during mass transit. Those SARS masks look goofy, but they will help stop particles from being ingested - if only by making it difficult for you to touch your own face!
- For the love of God, once you feel even a little sick, get in touch with medical professionals and strongly consider staying home. I had "regular" flu this year, and 2 days before I was bed ridden I could tell I was getting sick. I went about my life - because let's face it, these are busy enough times - but under the threat of a pandemic the least you can do is call a doctor and ask for advice, no matter how slight the symptoms. Stopping the spread near the start of the disease could save thousands of lives down the line.
Which sums up my thoughts at the moment... hope some found it informative and/or helpful!