Let me be one of the first to say this. The upcoming battle over the next supreme court nomination, that the traditional media is billing as a possible resurgence and rally issue for conservationism and Republicans, will be anything but that. This fight will result in a major PR disaster for the GOP. Not because of whomever President Obama chooses, but because it will result in another opportunity for branding the Republicans as the PARTY OF NO™. A party enthralled and controlled by their conservative base.
I think that Obama will pick a center left justice, who is progressive in a few key areas. Someone only slightly to the left of Souter (Obama is an incrementalist). In spite of that fact he will only get 2-4 republicans. The Maine sisters of Snowe and Collins and either/or Sen. Voinovich of Ohio or Sen. Hatch of Utah (yeah I know that's a suprise). Note there is a scenario he could get Mel Martinez of Florida, if it's a Latino. If the GOP votes this way, the Republicans will once again be called the PARTY OF NO™.
They will try and use Obama's votes against Roberts and Alito as the reason. But all America will see is that even when Obama tries to replace a liberal with another liberal Conservatives will still vote NO. The Right is starting to launch an intense lobbying effort to have every GOP senator vote NO. They are pushing the "Republicans lost because they were not conservative enough" meme. Even a guy like Lindsey Graham who would normally be predisposed to vote yes to replacing a liberal with a liberal (under presidential prerogative and without changing the balance, it let's him and David Broder call him a "moderate" conservative) will be under enormous pressure to vote NO. He is after all on the Judiciary committee.
So contrary to may experts. I'm predicting a PR disaster for the GOP. I don't see how this fight can in any way endear them to the mode rat suburban voters that they are losing (lost?). A big fight were they all stand up and do what their rural southern bible belt crowd wants them to do? The GOP is caught between a rock and a hard place. If the party votes for and Obama pick they will face the wrath of the talk radio fatwa crowd. This would doom many of them in a primary fight. But such a vote only further cements the idea that the GOP is enthralled to their base (read: special interest group). This type of association is toxic in America amongst independent. Independent while admiring strongly held personal beliefs, want politicians who are well, independent. Yes honor your beliefs, look after your most loyal supporters, but NEVER seem unable or unwilling to act without their consent.
I'm talking about a Teri Shivo moment here. The GOP needs to badly breakaway from this idea that they are the party of conservatives only. This fight will do nothing to help the. It's the difference between being seen as the Republican Party and the Conservative Party. Yes most republicans ae conservatives and vise versa. But when the GOP calls all moderates Democrats, they are in trouble. Rush Limbaugh has called moderate Republicans Schwarzenegger, Spector, McCain, and the Maine sisters Democrats. The result one of them is a Democrat, one of them is endorsing a democrat for governor, and the other two are contemplating leaving.
Now think about moderate republican leaning voters. If you are a moderate republican who agrees with the position of the fore mentioned politicians, and you see your politicians you identify with leaving, when do you decide to leave? 200,000 voters in Pennsylvania got the message. See it's not so much issues ,but how a person identifies their worldview and their values, that leads a person to chose their political party identification. George Lakoff has made his career proving this.
Beyond energizing their conservative base how will a fight over culture war issues help the GOP? That's just what the GOP needs, an energized base to help even more conservatives win more primaries! An energized base demanding the party vanquish more "squishy" moderates, organizing to topple them in primaries, before the general electorate gets it's say. Because what is what it all boils down to, that is where an energized base has it's greatest affect, in party primaries. An energized base mean the Republican party drifts further to the right, at a point time it's rapidly losing the center.
By the way, I'm intentionally leaving out the results of the GOP voting against the nations first Latina (I'm rooting for you Sonia Sotomayer), because the effects of racial identification are well known. The traditional media will of course pick up on this. It would also maybe win Obama Sen. Martinez of Florida. But I think they will miss the larger point. Until the GOP breaks out of their conservative orthodoxy they will continue to shrink. The upcoming supreme court fight will do nothing to alleviate this situation. Once again the generals, in this case the traditional media, are fighting the last (culture) war.
UPDATE:
O yeah, one more thought, if your a liberal jurist please do all us progressives a favor and pay all your taxes.
XOXOXO