I'm not sure why I am so focused on Georgia these days. What can I say, the state just fascinates me. I think one of the things I find so interesting about it is that it is truly a state of contrasts. Atlanta, the cosmopolitan megalopolous juxtaposed with the sparsely populated counties in the northern and southern ends of the state which haven't changed much in the past few years.
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Don't get me wrong. I do realize there is more to Georgia than just Atlanta and the rural counties. Savannah, Athens, Macon, Albany, Columbus, and Augusta are all fine cities in their own right. In fact, Obama will have to make inroads in all of the areas outside of Atlanta if he is to win Georgia's 16 electoral votes in 2012.
There are many encouraging signs which lead me to believe that Obama can win Georgia in 2012, not the least of which is the latest Survey USA poll from the Peach State.
Georgia Poll. Data collected 4/13/09.
"Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?"
Approve 54%
Disapprove 40%
Not Sure 6%
Rating +14
This is very solid, especially when you account for the fact that they have underrepresented African Americans in the poll. According to the 2008 exit polls, African Americans made up 30% of the voters on election day. Yet they only make up 26% of the Survey USA poll sample. If we do a demographic adjustment, Obama's approval rating could possibly be as high as 56%. In any case, these are strong numbers for a state which he narrowly lost on election day.
What's more, Georgia is theoretically trending blue day by day. According to the U.S. Census, African Americans made up 28.7% of the population in Georgia in 2000 and 29.6% in 2007. Likewise, the Hispanic/Latino community has also grown. It jumped from 5.3% in 2000 to 7.4% in 2007. Additionally, those identifying as Asian American grew from 2.1% in 2000 to 2.7% in 2007. If these trends continue from 2007 to 2012, we will likely be looking at an even more diverse Georgia electorate in 2012 than we saw on election day in 2008.
Here is my prediction map for Georgia in 2012:
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I predict that Obama will dominate the Atlanta area even more in 2012. It would also help him greatly to be able to pick up a handful of counties in the Southern and Eastern ends of the state that he narrowly lost in 2008. With a big advertising campaign, voter registration drives, a huge GOTV effort, and many campaign stops from Obama himself, Georgia could easily turn blue in 2012.
I predict the exit poll will look like this:
GEORGIA
....................OBAMA...........GOP..........Other
White (62%).......26%.............73%............1%
Black (32%).......97%.............2%.............1%
Other (6%)........60%.............38%............2%
Which results in:
Obama 50.76%
GOP 48.18%
Other 1.06%
Of course, this is all dependent upon whether Obama does a good, solid job and upon who the GOP nominee is. But I believe that Obama will do a very good job so I don't have any doubt that Obama can pick up Georgia in 2012.