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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/4-6. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary oversamples.

First off, it's a good thing former Gov. Tom Ridge decided he had better things to do, because he was facing just as tough slow as a "moderate Republican" in a GOP primary as Specter would've.

Toomey (R) 41
Ridge (R)  33

But that's all irrelevant now, with Ridge skipping out, leaving the GOP stuck with Toomey.

In the Democratic Primary, Specter has the early big advantage. It's understandable, since Sestak (and Torsella) are pretty much unknowns. "No opinion" is pretty much, "I don't know who the heck that is":

         Fav  Unfav  No opinion
Specter   54    36    10
Sestak    29    15    56
Torsella  11     5    85

So as you look at these numbers below, understand that there's a TON of room for Sestak (or Torsella) to grow.

If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today would you definitely vote for Arlen Specter would you consider someone else or would you definitely vote for someone else?

Definite Specter        37
Consider someone else   23
Definitely someone else 16
Not sure                24

Head to heads:

Specter (D)  56
Sestak (D)   11
Undecided    33

Specter (D)  60
Torsella (D)  5
Undecided    35

So check it, Specter has the big early lead, but only 37 percent of Democrats are definitely committed to Specter. And it gets worse for the incumbent fake Democrat:

Would you be more or less likely to support Arlen Specter knowing that he voted against Obama's budget or would it have no real effect on your vote?

More       7
Less      24
No effect 46
Not sure  23

Would you be more or less likely to support Arlen Specter if he voted against Democratic-backed labor-friendly legislation like the Employee Free Choice Act or would it have no effect on your vote?

More       6
Less      26
No effect 47
Not sure  21

Would you be more or less likely to support Arlen Specter if he voted against Democratic-backed efforts to reform the nation's health care system or would it have no real effect on your vote?

More       6
Less      28
No effect 45
Not sure  21

In other words, over a quarter of Democrats will be less likely to vote for Specter if they learn that he voted against Obama's budget and continues on his current path of opposing EFCA and Obama's health care reform initiative.

One more thing, to show how these things shake out:

Quinnipiac University. 4/25-30/2006. Likely Democratic voters. MoE 3.5%

Lieberman 65
Lamont 19

If I'm Joe Sestak, I like what I see here. If I'm Arlen Specter, I start thinking about maybe acting the "(D)" part.

Update: Oh crap, I forgot to add general election head-to-heads:

Specter (D) 55
Toomey (R) 31

Sestak (D) 37
Toomey (R) 32

Torsella (D) 35
Toomey (R) 33

Even the guys who no one has ever heard of are beating Toomey.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu May 07, 2009 at 12:10 PM PDT.

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