Nuclear (The REAL Alternative Energy) round up:
Periodically I like to focus in on what is going on in terms of new nuclear energy going on around the world. I've done a series of these over the years here:
Vietnam Selects Two Locations For Nuclear Power Plants
Who wants to build nuclear reactors?
Chinese Wind Resources Zoom Ahead of Nuclear?
China makes nuclear and wind work together!
All you have to do is scroll down my page you and you'll find them. They usually stir a lot of debate but, often enough, it's hard to keep the theme of these debates and discussions on the particular country and drifts off into the usual "wind vs nuclear" and so on.
First, please note that I firmly believe that the immediate future...out 10 years...world wide will see a strong, but incremental increase in new nuclear power plant construction. The future, as much as I'd like to be based on the mass expansion of new nuclear plants leading toward a Generation IV Thorium Economy, is simply not going to happen or even tilt in this direction over the next decade. The percentage of nuclear energy as part of the electricity portfolio, world wide, will, I believe, stay the same, plus or minus 1 or 2 percentage points.
In some countries, most notably Russia, China, Korea, India and Japan, those percentages will increase as much as 10% or more. The clear leader, of course, are the Chinese, with the most ambitious nuclear program in the world which is already on the way of going from 9 GWs in 11 plants operating today to over 160 GWs in 120 plants by 2030. And, that number might increase. These countries are leading the Renaissance in new nuclear plant AND component construction.
More countries will be added to the overall count of countries going nuclear over this period that previous had no nuclear or abandoned it's nuclear programs : Italy, Vietnam, Algeria, Tunisia, Jordan, Philippines, Iran, Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Albania & Croatia together, Turkey, Indonesia.
Countries that have indicated interest with establishing nuclear power but havn't made real concrete moves to do so (meaning contacting the IAEA and establishing national nuclear institues) yet are: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, Namibia, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, Libya, Venezuela. Let's just say the 'chatter' has increased a lot in the last 2 years.
Countries that have scaled back some from previous very ambitious plans include Russia, noted above, which is delaying some of it's expansion plans but still forging ahead, and S. Africa which was going to add upwards of 40 GWs of new nuclear but which is going to scale this back in light of credit problems with the world financial crash.
Poland in 2007, according to the World Nuclear Association noted:
A 2006 feasibility study suggested that 11.5 GWe of nuclear capacity would be optimum for Poland but possibly unaffordable in the medium term, so the figure of 4.5 GWe by 2030 was then targeted. A 2007 draft energy policy proposes 10 MWe of indigenous nuclear capacity by 2030, providing 10% of electricity then, and an interim 7.5% by 2022. In 2008 the Economy Minister said the first nuclear power plant was proposed by 2023 at the northern town of Zarnowiec. The government then brought the target date for first nuclear power to 2020.
This can go on. I should note that actual expansion of nuclear component factories for light water reactors is well under construction. The Japan Steel Works with it's giant forges are in the middle of doubling their capacity; Aveva in France is building a new forging plant in France and working with Grumman in converting the Northrop-Grumman ship yard in Newport News, VA to a giant component factory as well.
Westinghouse Electric Company and The Shaw Group also recently agreed to a joint venture to fabricate and assemble structural and equipment modules for AP1000 nuclear power plants in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
China First Heavy Industries is investing over $2 billion in expanding it's capability for motlen steel forgings building a factory in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China. The Harbin Boiler Works and Shanghai Electric Group are both doubling and tripling heavy/large component factories.
Russia’s main reactor component supplier is OMZ’s Komplekt-Atom-Izhora facility, which is doubling the production of large forgings so as to be able to manufacture three or four pressure vessels per year from 2011.
In South Korea, Doosan Heavy Industries; In Britain, Sheffield Forgemasters and various other traditional nuclear component companies are rapidly investing and building now, new facilities to supply the orders that are flowing in. The list gets rather long in terms of this "nuclear ramp-up".
So...what does all this mean? Does it mean we are going nuclear and that's that? No, not by a long shot. It means there is a general "renaissance" in production, new licenses, breaking ground on new nukes, bids solicited, bids made, bids accepted. But as an overall percentage...nothing really changes. Why not? Well, we know the reason to go nuclear has been motivated primarily for one reason: carbon and, specifically, limiting, reversing and then phasing out the use of coal power. But the reality is that more coal, more wind, more hydro, more solar, and above all, more natural gas is going in to produced needed kilowatts. Thus, in absolute terms, more carbon.
I noted above that my forecast for the status quo of different sources of generation is going to essentially remain the same for the next 10 years. The success of nuclear in the following decade will depend on how well it does in THIS decade (2009-2020). While nothing will change drastically, the ability of nuclear to prove itself, or not, will be shown in the next 10 years. If a positive outcome occurs, then it becomes THE game changer for the 2020-2030 season.
David
sources:
http://world-nuclear.org/...
http://www.neimagazine.com/...
http://www.reuters.com/