It's been well over three months since my last Senate 2010 diary, and much has changed! Back then, stimulus legislation was still in the works, Arlen Specter was a Republican, budget-hatin' Judd Gregg was eager to join Obama's Cabinet, and Al Franken's Senate race was unresolved after a protracted fight in the courts (oh, wait...). The individual dynamics of certain Senate races (notably Connecticut, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Delaware) have shifted considerably since then, but my general take is still the same: Democrats are still favored for modest gains, with the likely result being a Democratic caucus, however fractious, of 61-63 seats.
Read individual rundowns below the fold...
Two maps to start this off. The first map shows the playing field in 2010 (red states feature GOP incumbents, blue states Dem incumbents, and the lighter colors indicate open seats).
The second map shows my current predictions for each race (with the obvious and clichéd caveat being that this is May 2009 and the elections are nearly 18 months away).
- New Hampshire (open) - Judd Gregg (R) retiring after 3 terms
Outlook: Tossup / Leans Democratic pickup
February Ranking: 1st
Trend: away from Democrats, toward neutral
Rep. Paul Hodes of Concord is the clear Democratic frontrunner and should be well positioned for a pickup, but polls show the race surprisingly competitive and viable for the GOP. The Granite State is obviously a few election cycles behind the rest of New England in its reliability for Team Blue, and Hodes' fundraising last quarter was only adequate at $302K (with $261K on hand). Meanwhile, Republicans seem to think -- and the polls may back them up on this -- that former Sen. John Sununu (yes, he who was ousted by a decisive 7-point margin in 2008) would give Hodes a close race. But regardless, one has to give Hodes and the Democrats a slight edge, and there's little reason to worry that Hodes won't be able to pick up the money pace over the next year. It's actually quite something that, at a mere tossup or lukewarm favorite for Dem pickup, this race is ranked #1 most likely to flip. The last three cycles have all seen Senate races that were overwhelmingly likely to flip very early on (Virginia and New Mexico in 2008, Pennsylvania in 2006, Illinois and Georgia in 2004). Edit: New Dartmouth poll has Hodes leaning Sununu 38-35, an encouraging result given the presumed name recognition gap between the two, but essentially tied with former Rep. Charlie Bass at 31-30. Bass hasn't often been mentioned as a candidate, but says he doesn't want to rule anything out.
- Missouri (open) - Kit Bond (R) retiring after 4 terms
Outlook: Tossup / Leans Democratic pickup
February Ranking: 3rd
Trend: away from neutral, toward Democrats
Secy. of State Robin Carnahan is beginning to look like a veritable frontrunner to succeed Bond, and in a conservative-leaning swing state at that. With $928K on hand and over $1M raised in the last quarter, her fundraising haul is solid at worst, and far better than Rep. Roy Blunt's $560K raised and $674K on hand. Some Republicans are evidently seeking an alternative to the polarizing Blunt (such as State Treasurer Sarah Steelman), but as the favorite son of Springfield-area conservatives, Blunt remains the odds-on GOP nominee. Much like Claire McCaskill before her, Carnahan is a popular woman with a moderate and accessible statewide profile.
- Kentucky - Jim Bunning (R) apparently running for 3rd term
Outlook: Tossup
February Ranking: 5th
Trend: possibly toward Democrats
Like other liberal-leaning political junkies, my heart nearly stopped when I read an anonymously sourced Politico story hinting that Bunning was about to finally relent to Mitch McConnell's longtime pressure and at last strike out (ho ho, ha ha), passing the GOP baton to less-controversial Secy. of State Trey Grayson. Fortunately, Bunning's staff flatly denied the story immediately and the former Hall of Famer once again reiterated that he is in this game for keeps. As long as Bunning stays in the race and continues to raise money at his typical languid pace, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and Atty. Gen. Jack Conway should both feel pretty good about themselves. So why is this ranked third? Well, call me superstitious, but I have a "twice shy" attitude about competitive Senate races in Kentucky after the narrow GOP victories of 1998 (Bunning over Baesler), 2004 (Bunning over Mongiardo), and 2008 (McConnell over Lunsford). That, and the two Democratic candidates, both appealing and viable, may tear each other apart in the primary (though they both hope to play nice through next May).
- Ohio (open) - George Voinovich (R) retiring after 2 terms
Outlook: Tossup
February Ranking: 2nd
Trend: neutral or toward Democrats
Despite all the Republican crowing about Rob Portman (yes, his $3M on hand is impressive, but does it surprise anyone? Portman's prodigious fundraising is the stuff of legend in conservative circles), polls continue to tilt toward either Democratic candidate, Lt. Gov. and purported frontrunner Lee Fisher and Secy. of State Jennifer Brunner. What about those two Democrats? Fisher's fundraising is actually pretty darned solid, and he leads Portman 42-31 while Brunner leads 40-32. Obviously the undecideds are huge this far out, but between these stats and Strickland's surprisingly healthy approval ratings (surprising because of the dismal Ohio economy), Buckeye voters seem far from ready at this moment to give the GOP another chance.
- Delaware (open) - Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term
Outlook: Leans Republican pickup if Castle runs, Solid Democratic otherwise
February Ranking: 14th
Trend: yes and no
I can't decide how to read the tea leaves on popular Republican Rep. Mike Castle. He hints that he won't run for another House term, but isn't sure himself whether he will retire at age 71 or instead seek a late-in-life promotion to the Capitol's north side. If Castle runs, polls show him beating Atty. Gen. Beau Biden (though everyone expects that White House backing would tighten the spread), but if he doesn't, Biden or any other credible Democrat should be poised for a landslide victory. So I split the difference and ranked this fifth. If Castle announces it will skyrocket to #1 or #2, but if he chooses to stay out this may drop off the watch-list completely. As it is, even a Castle run would only make for one tentative Democratic loss (and in deep-blue Delaware...what does it mean that the other clearly vulnerable Dem seat is in equally solid Connecticut? And yet North Dakota's Dorgan and Indiana's Bayh seem as safe as ever).
- Connecticut - Chris Dodd (D) running for 6th term
Outlook: Tossup
February Ranking: not ranked
Trend: toward the Republicans
It pains and confounds me to put Dodd as the weakest Democratic incumbent, and to be seriously sweating a Senate race in the Nutmeg State. There is preliminary grapevine chatter that Dodd's visibility on the credit card regulation bill is gradually helping his approvals inch closer to decent, but polls have yet to bear that out. Meanwhile, former Rep. Rob Simmons is polling well, possibly well ahead of Dodd if you believe certain sources. In the end, this is a Democratic state and I expect undecideds, who are likely to be erstwhile Obama voters, to break Dodd's way over the next year, but any illusions we had about this race are over. The good news for the venerable Banking Chairman is that he has 18 months to right this ship.
- North Carolina - Richard Burr (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Leans Republican
February Ranking: 7th
Trend: unclear
Burr's well-publicized and absurd remarks about possible bank runs, and his shamefully lame hold on Tammy Duckworth's nomination, may have actually served him in an odd way by raising his weirdly low name recognition. But they probably haven't helped his mediocre favorables. North Carolina Democrats are on edge waiting for popular Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, long touted by the people at Public Policy Polling as the top possibility, to make up his mind, and some are speculating Cooper will go for it. For now, there is no Democrat in the race and Burr has the field to himself, but as soon as a credible challenger emerges, the fight is on. De rigueur reminder: this is the "Curse of Sam Ervin" seat that has flipped parties every election since Ervin's retirement in 1974.
- Pennsylvania - Arlen Specter (D) running for 6th term
Outlook: Leans Democratic
February Ranking: 8th
Trend: away from neutral, toward the Democrats
I'm still having trouble typing "Arlen Specter (D)" without automatically doing a double take on my skills. After a rough rollout of his new party identity, and over a week of potentially embarrassing and alienating remarks by the caucus' newest member, Specter's luck is gradually turning around, with former Gov. Tom Ridge, the biggest GOP threat to his reelection hopes, announcing his disinterest in the race and refusing to endorse current GOP frontrunner Pat Toomey, and polls showing Specter doing reasonably well in early Democratic primary matchups. Several of Specter's remarks, especially involving EFCA and Norm Coleman, are raising eyebrows in the labor community and prompting interest in a hypothetical primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak. Sestak is sounding like a challenger to me, but his team is probably testing how deep Specter's name recognition-based support goes. On the Republican side, Ridge's exit was a real blow as the NRSC seeks a more electable alternative to Toomey (Rep. Jim Gerlach is the flavor of the week). This is definitely a race to watch due to its complexity, but with all the confusion over possible outcomes, Specter remains top dog.
- Colorado - Michael Bennet (D) running for full term
Outlook: Leans Democratic
February Ranking: 10th
Trend: toward neutral
PPP finds some concerning numbers for Bennet in that his approval (as of late April) is 34%, to 41% disapproval. But with 25% undecided, and his numbers fairly tepid among reliably Democratic Hispanics, his supposed problems may run rather shallow. The real problem for the Republicans is not Bennet's dynamism (he's never run before and, if you've seen him on C-SPAN, you know that he's pretty low-key), but the utter weakness of their bench. For now, the GOP candidates of note are Weld County D.A. Ken Buck and Aurora City Councilor Ryan Frazier...not exactly top-tier politicos, though in fairness, Bennet was an out-of-the-box choice on Gov. Ritter's part.
- Louisiana - David Vitter (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely Republican
February Ranking: 12th
Trend: unclear
Someone please tell me how he's managed to overcome a hooker scandal! Only in Louisiana, right? Well, at the moment, Vitter's sole announced opponent is in the GOP primary, porn actress Stormy Daniels. (Seriously.) Again, my sense is that the Bayou Democrats are too demoralized and/or disorganized right now to find a serious opponent, even though there are a few good possibilities to mull over including former Rep. Don Cazayoux, Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, and Atty. Gen. Buddy Caldwell. My bet is that this race will drop further down the list with time, and the only reason it's ranked as high as #10 is that states like Illinois and Nevada are slowly dropping out of contention.
- Illinois - Roland Burris (D) running for full term
Outlook: Likely Democratic if Burris loses the primary
February Ranking: 9th
Trend: away from neutral, toward the Democrats
Burris is the incumbent, and the only African-American in the Senate, yet everyone seems to assume he'll come in second or even third in the Democratic primary, with his favorables in the dumps, fundraising in the HUNDREDS of dollars (no joke), and black voters, presumably the only constituency resembling a base for Burris, far from sold on the Senator. Personally, I'm not thrilled at the idea of zero black Senators, but Illinois is full of superior candidates, at least in terms of political skill. A recent GOP poll indicates good news for possible Dem primary challengers such as Rep. Jan Schakowsky and State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (ever since 2006 labeled a "rising star"), and even Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan, who has long been eyeing the governor's mansion instead, is giving serious consideration to a Senate run. Meanwhile, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is reportedly losing interest.
- Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln (D) running for 3rd term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
February Ranking: not ranked
Trend: away from the Democrats, toward neutral
Lincoln's popularity seems to have dropped significantly from 2004, though that may be less her fault than symptomatic of a slow GOP ascent in still-rather-Democratic Arkansas. The only Republican candidate right now is State Sen. Kim Hendren, a gubernatorial candidate in 1982 and currently 71 years old, so for now I see Lincoln set for a moderately smooth reelection fight. Still, this may be one to watch, especially if the EFCA fight heats up and starts to devour Lincoln's media coverage. (Hailing from a traditionally "right to work" and generally anti-union state, Lincoln is one of three Democrats currently publicly opposed to "card check".)
- Florida (open) - Mel Martinez (R) retiring after 1 term
Outlook: Likely Republican
February Ranking: 2nd
Trend: strongly toward the Republicans
Gov. Charlie Crist is in, and Tallahassee's gain may be Washington's loss as a top-tier Senate race drops off the radar. We should be happy, really...the eventual Dem nominee (either Rep. Kendrick Meek or State Sen. Dan Gelber, who is now considering bolting to another statewide race) is likely (though not quite certainly) facing a loss, but we will see a reliable Bush Republican replaced with a decidedly more genial, and far closer to rational, variation. Meanwhile, the gubernatorial race becomes anyone's game.
- Nevada - Harry Reid (D) running for 5th term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
February Ranking: 6th
Trend: away from neutral, toward the Democrats
Wow, what happened here? A few months ago Republicans were licking their chops to "Daschle" the soft-spoken Majority Leader, and now, even the most experienced Nevada strategists are privately conceding that Reid looks to be getting a free pass (sayeth Politico: this is not an isolated sentiment in Silver State GOP circles). Reid's only GOP opponent these days is criminally indicted Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki...that about sums it up. Still, last I heard Reid's approvals do have room for improvement, and his last seriously contested race (in 1998) resulted in a paper-thin victory.
- New York B - Kirsten Gillibrand (D) running for full term
Outlook: probably Safe Democratic, but competitive primary
February Ranking: 13th
Trend: unclear
I'm actually not worried about the prospects of an establishment GOPer like Rep. Pete King making a run at this seat (can anyone say "Rick Lazio?"), but polling indicates that Gillibrand still hasn't closed the deal for renomination. (Strike that, I worked for the Obama campaign and so now cringe at the phrase "hasn't closed the deal".) In any case, Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy (how not to confuse them: the former represents Manhattan's East Side and the Astoria area, the latter suburban Long Island), as well as Rep. Steve Israel, are mulling a challenge. Gillibrand's approvals will likely grow as her name recognition peaks, and her progressive voting record is sure to dampen qualms from the left, so I think she merits an edge in the primary, especially if both Israel and one of the Carolyns jump in and the field becomes crowded. Needless to say, David Paterson would love to be in Gillibrand's not-quite-secure shoes right now.
And a note on Georgia: yes, I saw the poll showing Isakson in shockingly weak condition against a top Democrat like former Gov. Roy Barnes or Rep. Jim Marshall, and here's my take on it -- red herring. Nearly all credible Democrats are looking at a gubernatorial run or other state office in Atlanta, and few seem to take the concept of Isakson's vulnerability seriously. If more polls show a real void here, I as a recently registered Georgia voter will be the first to jump for joy, but for now, I think this is a headfake.
The races I see as nearly 100% safe for the incumbent party:
Alabama (Shelby), Alaska (Murkowski), Arizona (McCain), California (Boxer), Georgia (Isakson), Hawaii (Inouye), Idaho (Crapo), Indiana (Bayh), Iowa (Grassley), Kansas (open - Moran or Tiahrt), Maryland (Mikulski), New York (Schumer), North Dakota (Dorgan), Oklahoma (Coburn), Oregon (Wyden), South Carolina (DeMint), South Dakota (Thune), Utah (Bennett), Vermont (Leahy), Washington (Murray), Wisconsin (Feingold)
OVERALL
If the election were next Tuesday, Castle didn't run in Delaware, and Burris lost to a more popular Democrat in Illinois, I'd see the Democrats picking up New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, and Kentucky while barely holding Connecticut, for a new total of 64 Senate seats including Franken. A less rosy scenario might include losing either Connecticut or Delaware (hard for me to picture losing both considering how Democratic the entire Northeast normally is) while only gaining two of the four aforementioned GOP seats. By my math, that would bring us to 61 or so. Either way, until the Republicans can find a way to capitalize on opportunities like Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and/or Nevada, smart money is on further Democratic gains in the Senate (along with quite modest losses in the House). Not bad for a midterm election in the midst of a severe recession!
But this is all little more than a parlor game from the vantage point of May 2009. Election Day isn't next Tuesday, and with nearly 18 months remaining, the Democrats have plenty of time to crash and burn or solidify their reign as the mainstream party of choice. While fundraising and polls will matter, Obama's approval ratings, and his policy successes re: the economy and health care, will matter far more. History tells us that if the President's approvals remain high, Democrats will hold firm to their dominant position on Capitol Hill...and if they turn sour, his party will suffer the consequences at election time. Regardless, few serious analysts even entertain the idea of a GOP takeover of either chamber, with 11 gains needed in the Senate and 40 in the House. As Democrats, we should use these elections to snatch a genuine filibuster-proof edge in the Senate (by electing more Robin Carnahans and Paul Hodeses, not by relying on the facile presumption that 60 Democrats equals 60 votes for cloture) and to continually re-energize our ranks in the House. Meanwhile, let's keep our eyes on the prize and remain focused on achieving true health care reform in 2009. From what I can tell, that sort of game-changing policy victory will do far more to mortally wound the national GOP than any single news cycle or candidacy.