DesMoinesdem wrote this diary yesterday: http://www.dailykos.com/... and it inspired me to post this diary.
I came up with a list of about 20 names after the 2008 presidential race, I've dropped a few since then and added a couple.
On the list
Governors
1.Sarah Palin, Alaska
2.Charlie Crist, Florida
3.Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota
4.Haley Barbour, Mississippi
5.Mark Sanford, South Carolina
Palin is obvious as the V.P nominee. She knows this is her one shot before she's forgotten and I can't believe she wouldn't make the effort. How far she gets is another matter.
Crist is interesting. He's running for the Senate, which he could use as a national springboard, but it's hard to see how he'd position himself. Could a moderate who wants to work with Obama turn around and run against him?
Pawlenty gets some mention. He's become a conservative hero for doing an end-run around the Minnesota state legislature, which is dominated by Democrats, in order to put forward massive spending cuts. People always say they like spending cuts in the abstract, but they don't seem to like them in reality. Spending cuts to the state mental health system are what ended the political career of then Republican governor of Missouri Matt Blunt at just 41. So, we'll see how popular Pawlenty winds up in a few months.
Barbour is, I think, a very strong candidate for the nomination. He's from the strongest region for Republicans and he has a national profile as the former head of the RNC.
Sanford is also quite strong, but, like you mentioned with Huckabee, he isn't well liked in the business community, and would probably have a difficult time with fundraising. I would think a fair number of libertarians who were for Ron Paul would back him, but we saw how far that got Ron Paul.
Senators
1.John Ensign, Nevada
2.Jim de Mint, South Carolina
3.John Thune, South Dakota
4.Bob Corker, Tennessee
5.John Cornyn, Texas
John Ensign might be underestimated. He is quite popular in a state that is trending Democratic. He nearly knocked off Harry Reid in 1998 and then was easily elected to the Senate himself in 2000 and then easily reelected over a son of Jimmy Carter in 2006. Of course, it's a big question if he can take his bipartisan support in one state and translate it nationwide.
Jim de Mint has said something like he wants to be known as the most conservative senator in the United States. That sounds to me like he's planning on running for president.
John Thune is a conservative hero and has a bit of a national profile due to his defeating then Senate Minority leader Tom Daschle. He was apparently fairly well respected among Republican insiders nationally even before that.
Bob Corker is one of the few Republicans to have been elected to the senate in the past two cycles. He put himself as the Republican spokesperson in opposition to the auto bailout. Seems to me like he's trying to move along in a hurry.
John Cornyn. He's head of the RSCC (or was, or something like that). Another quick mover. I believe he's also on the judiciary committee and could try to make a name for himself with the supreme court nomination.
Others
1.Mitt Romney
2.Mike Huckabee
3.Newt Gingrich
4.Dirk Kempthorne
5.Tom Ridge
The only 2 I've added are Kempthorne and Ridge, both of whom have floated their names in the past few months.
Removed from the list:
I've dropped
Governors
1.Bob Riley, Alabama
2.Jodi Rell, Connecticut
3.Mitch Daniels, Indiana
4.Bobby Jindal, Louisiana
5.Dave Heinemann, Nebraska
6.Don Carcieri, Rhode Island
7.John Huntsman, Utah
Senators
1.Johnny Isakson, Georgia
2.Mike Johanns, Nebraska
as none of them, other than Huntsman, had received much national press. Mitch Daniels, who has received a good deal of national press in right wing magazines, insists he isn't going to run for any other office.
On Huckabee, desmoinesdem wrote: "The business wing of the GOP might not always get its favorite presidential candidate, but I believe they will have the power to stop their least favorite. Which is to say that I don't see strong prospects for Huckabee."
I think, with respect, he overgeneralized the business community. The so-called 'Club for Growth' hardly speaks for all of them, and I'm not even sure how much money that group gets from the business community. I think it is largely funded by a handful of billionaires (though I could be wrong on that).
The business establishment didn't like Huckabee mainly because they saw him as a religious fundamentalist not because they saw him as pro government, which is what they Club for Growth didn't like about him.
Huckabee, as you mentioned, is very interesting. He is a pro government Republican which the Pew poll a couple years ago identified as a growing group. Of course, since George W. Bush basically killed the Republican Party (at least for now), I'm not sure how many pro government Republicans are left.
This is a quote from Huckabee which sounds far more like something a Democrat would say:
"Republicans need to be Republicans. The greatest threat to classic Republicanism is not liberalism; it's this new brand of libertarianism, which is social liberalism and economic conservatism, but it's a heartless, callous, soulless type of economic conservatism because it says "look, we want to cut taxes and eliminate government. If it means that elderly people don't get their Medicare drugs, so be it. If it means little kids go without education and healthcare, so be it." Well, that might be a quote pure economic conservative message, but it's not an American message."
As Huckabee defines the 'Club for Growth' and other anti government types as libertarians, it's interesting to compare another libertarian Republican and the business communities reaction to him: South Carolina governor Mark Sanford. He is very much an anti tax and anti government Republican and the South Carolina business community apparently strongly dislikes him because he doesn't believe in using government for economic development.
In contrast, for instance. A fair amount in the business community I think were excited to get behind Democrat Mark Warner's presidential campaign in 2008 even though he raised taxes as governor of Virginia.
So, all in all, I'd say don't assume that the Republican business establishment would be in lock step opposed to Huckabee. For some reason in 2008 he ran solely as a social conservative (maybe to knock Sam Brownback out of the race) rather than highlighting his successes as the pragmatic governor of Arkansas (from a Republican perspective anyway). He was governor there for 10 years after all. If he can run more on that in 2012, he could be a very strong candidate for the nomination in my opinion.
Edited to add: Tim Pawlenty annouced today he won't run for reelection in 2010.