Skip to main content

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/18-20 results)

Democratic Primary voters MoE 5%

Creigh Deeds (D)     30 (13)
Brian Moran (D)      27 (22)
Terry McAuliffe (D)  26 (36)
Undecided            17 (29)

Off the bat, the numbers are clearly a statistical tie, leading to the obvious conclusion that the best field organization is going to win this thing. But looking at the trends, a couple of things stand out:

  1. Whatever the opposite of "momentum" is, McAuliffe has that.
  1. Check out Deeds -- a whopping 17-point gain in just two weeks. The momentum is clearly his. Now Deeds has bet everything on an air campaign, even laying off staff to conserve resources to do it. Will he still have the resources to drag people out to the polls, especially his newfound support in NoVa?
  1. Undecideds dropped by 12 points, McAuliffe lost another 10. While we can't assume direct correlation, the math ads up -- 17 to Deeds, five to Moran.
  1. The 2006 Democratic Senate primary between Harris Miller and Jim Webb had a turnout of just 3.45% (not a typo). This race is significantly higher profile, but turnout should still be frightfully low. That means the campaigns face an apathetic, uninterested electorate. Whichever campaign has the more motivated supporters, and has the ground game to drag them out to the polls, will win this thing.

Interestingly, the candidate favorabilies are mostly unchanged:

Deeds     62/20 (56/17)
Moran     60/16 (56/16)
McAuliffe 62/21 (62/19)

Deeds is +3 on net favorability, Moran +4, and McAuliffe -2. You'd think with such wild swings in the head-to-heads that there'd be more movement happening with the favorables, but not really.

I had Research 2000 break down the regional numbers. The numbers in parenthesis are from two weeks ago:

Democratic Primary Voters

NOVA  126 (32%)
REST  274 (68%)

            ALL       NoVa     Rest
Deeds      30 (13)   22  (6)   34 (16)
Moran      27 (22)   42 (37)   20 (15)
McAuliffe  26 (36)   28 (43)   25 (33)
Undecided  17 (29)    8 (14)   21 (36)

Both Deeds' and Moran's movement is essentially equal across both regions. McAuliffe took his biggest hit in NoVa. In the 2005 Lt. Governor primary, 32.48 percent of the vote came from Northern Virginia (NoVa). In the 2006 Senate primary, 44.65 percent did. R2K is betting on 2005-like numbers, which given the strong southern-VA candidate, may be the safer bet. But if the numbers end up being closer to 2006's, then Moran has the edge -- especially since Moran's field operation appears concentrated in NoVa while Deed's has little in the region.

----

In the general election head-to-heads, Moran trails Republican Bob McDonnell by seven, McAuliffe trails by 10, and Deeds by 13.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Jun 04, 2009 at 02:15 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site