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There are clear signs the economy is beginning to recover.  Now that does not mean a bed of roses or that it will not be a long and protracted recovery nor does it mean that if you do not currently have a job that it does not totally suck right now for your situation...it simply means that we are moving in the right direction.

More importantly, the economic policies that Obama put in place about 100 days ago are working and have achieved their stated goals...to prevent a complete collapse of the economy and financial system like the Great Depression...we can all argue if other alternatives would have been fairer or better..but the fact is what POTUS Obama brilliantly worked...and Democrats will benefit in 2010...

http://www.reuters.com/...

The U.S. economy shrank slightly less in the first quarter than initially estimated, while corporate profits rebounded, according to government data on Friday that pointed to moderation in the recession.

Yes the economy still shrank in the 1st quarter but at less than originally estimated and that is despite the stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment numbers.  I suspect that is due to the brilliant part of the stimulus package of extending unemployment benefits (highly stimulative) and cutting payroll tax withholding rates for workers so when you get a part-time job you have more money in your pocket...

"The recession is easing. The second quarter is shaping up to be a smaller decline of about 3.0 to 3.5 percent. It should be the last of the negative quarters," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

And second quarter is looking even better with decline in GDP 1/2 the rate of the previous 2 quarters...that will feel like an increase in GDP to many people and is a huge turnaround in only 100 days since the Obama economic policies have taken a foothold...

Perceptions that the worst of the 17-month-old downturn was over pushed consumer confidence to its highest in eight months in May, and a report showing business activity in New York City expanded in May for the first time since January 2008 offered a further hint the recession was abating.

Perceptions and expectations are reality for voters...and if people feel good about the future even if the economic recovery is not completed by the 2010 elections...Obama and the Democrats will get full credit for turning things around...

But the positive outlook for the economy was tainted by a report showing business activity in the country's Midwest unexpectedly fell sharply in April, likely reflecting troubles in the automotive sector.

The economic recovery will unfortunately not be even around the country...those hardest hit by real estate collapse and/or automotive debacle will continue to languish for some time into the future...that being said I believe those voters are unlikely to vote Republican and do not blame Obama for their woes...

U.S. stock indexes ended more than 1 percent higher as the rebound in corporate profits and the upbeat consumer confidence report helped to underpin investor morale. A rally in commodity prices lifted shares of natural resource companies.

Stock markets have been on fire since the Obama policies have taken effect.  Now I know if you do not have a job and do not own stocks this does not affect you...but over 50% of the American people do and these are core swing voters...in addition it helps with the psychology of the consumer sentiment which will help Americans feel more confident about spending money again...Also you cannot discount retirees who cut way back as their portfolios shrank last year are now saying that well I guess we can spend a little more now...

The report on GDP suggested sharp belt tightening by business was paying off as corporate profits after taxes rose 1.1 percent in the January-March quarter, the first increase in a year. In the fourth quarter, profits had plummeted 10.7 percent, the biggest decline since the start of 1994.

Corporate profits (yes I know those evil corporations) increasing are a predicter of future investment in R&D an capital projects...so we should see an uptick in corporate spending soon...

Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 1.5 percent -- slower than the 2.2 percent rate estimated last month -- but still a turnaround after a sharp plunge in the second half of last year.

The rise in consumer spending which drives 2/3s of the economic engine of the economy is no longer on the decline...great news!!!

But spending could pick up in the third quarter as households grow more optimistic about the economy and the government's $787 billion package of spending and tax cuts filters through.

All this happened with only a small fraction of the stimulus package actually spent...the bulk of that spending will be happening in 2nd half of 2009 and during the election year of 2010...what a brilliant political move...accelerating spending as the election cycle happens...

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers' sentiment gauge rose to 68.7 in May from 65.1 in April. That was the highest reading since September.

Most importantly, consumer sentiment is rising...those are voters people who will judge Obama and the Democrats in 2010...

So what about all the people who are unemployed and hurting...it will take a while and I personally know that their situations stink...but will that make them vote Republican...I think they know who caused this recession and who is ending the recession even if their own economic fortunes have not rebounded before the 2010 election...

Originally posted to dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 06:46 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips for good economic news and... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Quege, Limelite, pico3, MRA NY

    good fortune for Democrats and POTUS Obama in 2010...

    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

    by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 06:47:28 AM PDT

  •  Glass Is Half Full And There Is Enough For All (0+ / 0-)
  •  You mean the "business cycle" concept (5+ / 0-)

    is still in force?

    And maybe, just maybe, it would have been even if we didn't send $3 trillion or whatever it was to the Wall Street Billionaires . . .. ??

    •  Sure that is possible... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pico3

      it is also possible without that policy the US could be like Iceland in complete financial meltdown ala 1929...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:30:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True enough, you never know (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        waf8868, rmx2630, DBunn, chrome327
        do you?

        In any event, I am gratified that those in charge showed sufficient wisdom to follow the tried-and-true strategy of "when in doubt, throw money at the rich folk who caused the problem in the first place . . ."

        •  If he had not done that... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pico3

          we all would be in bread lines now...

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:53:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Disagreed (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Roadbed Guy, Fossil, chrome327

            The majority of that money wasn't even used to shore up the banks finances (which is why we are scheduled for TARP 3, or a surprising amount of capital raising going on for most of the banks), it went into the executives pockets (i.e. most of AIGs first TARP going towards the bonuses), with cries of "We're all going to die unless you keep giving us money!" to cover the complete looting of the treasury.

            "Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center." - Kurt Vonnegut

            by Mister Gloom on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:05:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not true... (0+ / 0-)

              as abhorent as those executive bonuses were they were less than 1% of the money expended for TARP...the vast majority of that money was used to shore up the financial system from a complete global collapse and a run on the banks ala 1929...did you see what happened in Iceland?  That could have happened here and in europe...

              Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

              by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:26:39 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Iceland was a localized instance... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                rmx2630

                ...Iceland's financial system, due to international expansion, was actually larger than the country's economy.  We know the phrase "Too big to fail", but Iceland's was "Too big to save".

                "Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center." - Kurt Vonnegut

                by Mister Gloom on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:36:36 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  This country and the UK.... (0+ / 0-)

                  was 72 hours away from a complete freezing of the entire financial system due to large international financial institutions not being able to give confidence that the money was safe in their financial institution...that would have caused a run on the banks by depositors (it had already started)...it was necessary and painful and it is beginning to be over...

                  I know you think it sucks that we did it and totally unfair...but it was necessary...

                  Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                  by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:41:08 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Sure, keep believing that . .. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            waf8868

            If it makes it just that much easier to take it up the ass yet once again.

            •  I love when you comment... (0+ / 0-)

              dirty in my diaries...don't tell my wife I said that to you.../snark

              Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

              by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:51:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The thing is, when you get lied to (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                waf8868

                time after time after time, it's just a little bit difficult to believe that the wolf actually exists . . .

                •  some of us do not think we... (0+ / 0-)

                  have been lied to by POTUS Obama

                  Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                  by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 10:27:00 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Didn't that "72 hours until a complete meltdown" (0+ / 0-)

                    scenario (btw, who could possibly know that?) you mention elsewhere in these comments take place *before* he became president?  And then afterwards, there was essentially no change in direction from that set by the Bush Team . . . .

                    Anyways, more broadly, I suppose that there's a fine line between lying and compromising that everyone has to set for him or herself.

                    •  POTUS Obama... (0+ / 0-)

                      abosuletely changed direction and put much more oversight on the whole process...that is right the interbank credit markets siezed up before Obama became POTUS...and it was important to maintain and expand the liquidity that GWB reluctantly did with TARP 1...without the government stepping in with gaurantees and liquidity help they would have frozen again...

                      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 12:42:22 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  If crude/gas prices keep going up, then (6+ / 0-)

    the recovery would become more problematic.

    Rabindranath Tagore-"Bigotry tries to keep truth safe in its hand with a grip that kills it."

    by joy sinha on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 06:51:50 AM PDT

  •  Yeah if gas prices continue to rise, (4+ / 0-)

    it will completely mute any signs of economic recovery.

  •  And in a couple years' time you (8+ / 0-)

    will have another crash.

    Even Roubini pointed out that recovery will likely be anemic in terms of job growth and will likely be slow.

    Worse still, no structural problems have been addressed. There are some signs that a regulation of the derivatives market is in the works, but information points to it being extremely feeble.

    The trade imbalance? Still there, I'm afraid. Consumer confidence doesn't mean diddly squat when you have to pay your creditor. Americans are still spending money they don't have and, for the moment, they can afford it. For the moment.

    But, in the long term the trade deficit, as well as the budget deficit, are both unsustainable. They are also interconnected. It's become very difficult to raise taxes since that means that, in a globalised economy, capital will bugger off elsewhere, and less goods being produced at home necessitates a greater deficit...

    Iuris praecepta sunt haec: Honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere. - Ulpian, Digestae 1, 3

    by Dauphin on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:01:53 AM PDT

    •  Oregon is bucking the trend... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      billlaurelMD, Dauphin

      Taxes are actually being raised here now by the State Legislature.

      "War is the health of the state." Randolph Bourne "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel."Samuel Johnson

      by american pastoral on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:05:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, but when a manager can (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sparhawk, chrome327

        decide to move to greener pastures that is limited. You can, for example, get away with a 1% tax increase, but I doubt you could pass a 10% one.

        Iuris praecepta sunt haec: Honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere. - Ulpian, Digestae 1, 3

        by Dauphin on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:07:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Voinovich (R) Ohio Said Gas Taxes Must Rise (0+ / 0-)

        yesterday I think. I don't know if there's state gas taxes offhand. But he said all this infrastructure is underfunded and has to be paid for.

        Amazing, for a Republican.

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:28:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Consumer confidence = voter confidence for 2010.. (0+ / 0-)

      and that means everything...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:31:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Except actually for solving the problem. n/t (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        waf8868, rmx2630, chrome327

        Iuris praecepta sunt haec: Honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere. - Ulpian, Digestae 1, 3

        by Dauphin on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:38:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  FDR took 10 years to solve the problems... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          Hoover and the Republicans created...POTUS Obama has only been working on this for about 130 days...be patient...

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:40:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The feeling of some confidence is very important (0+ / 0-)

            to the recovery. People invest when they "feel" that things are getting better, when they "feel" that they are getting worse than they hide themselves and their dollars.  That is not to say that the economy has not changed, the level of consumer spending is never coming back to pre-2009 levels...they have just discovered that they can live without all that shit.  That one is good for the environment.

            •  Never say never... (0+ / 0-)

              that is what I always say...do you think in 1933 they said it will never come back too...?

              Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

              by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 10:28:05 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The world changed when the economy crashed, (0+ / 0-)

                people realized that the party could not go on forever, we have not seen an economy like this since the early 80's(the closest since the 1930's).  Consumer spending has contracted by at least 15% and I do not see that coming back and I honestly don't see the need.  We all have so much crap...we just do not need it.  We need to look to exports for the growth of our economy, we cannot continue to let China dump their shit in our country without a reciprocal arrangement.  It is truly the only way the Chinese will actually get their money back so they better start importing like crazy.

    •  Did You Miss Larry Summers' Speech (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dvogel001, Quege, rmx2630, Dauphin

      to the Council on Foreign Relations, transcribed here (pdf), when he addressed precisely your point, noting the significant economic crises averaging every 3 years in the last couple of decades?

      Frankly, it is no accident that there are countless TV dramas about curative medicine and none, to my knowledge, about preventive medicine. Brain surgery makes for better drama than blood tests. Though in terms of the ultimate health of the population, the latter may be more important. So I would be remiss if I did not conclude by talking about what is in many ways a more important and more fundamental objective than the necessary agenda of intervention that I have just talked about. This is the agenda of crisis prevention through stronger regulation.

      In the last generation, prior to the current crisis, we saw the Latin American debt crisis, the 1987 stock market crash, the commercial real estate collapse and S&L debacle, the Mexican financial crisis, the Asian financial crisis, the LTCM liquidity crisis, the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble, and Enron. That is one major crisis every three years.

      In each case, the financial system did not perform its intended function as a bearer and distributor of risk, but instead proved to be a creator of risk. Problems emanating from the financial sector in each case profoundly disrupted the lives of hundreds of thousands or even tens of millions of people. Surely our fellow citizens are right to demand of those of us involved with the financial system greater stability and safety. That is why President Obama has made financial regulatory reform a central legislative priority of this early phase of his Administration. While many of the details are complex, the necessary fixes come from the application of common sense in an area where complexity can blind sophisticated observers to the obvious. There will be much to debate but here are some things with which I think we should all be able to agree.

      The point of Obama's, and his Administrations drive for regulatory reform in the areas of a) systemic risk; b) resolution authority; and c) capital adequacy requirements is to prevent the excesses of greed, manipulations, and shady practices that led to these crises.

      The "business cycle" of our recent past is about to be broken, if Obama's reform measures come to fruition.

      "Give me but one firm spot to stand, and I will move the earth." -- Archimedes

      by Limelite on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:48:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed... (0+ / 0-)

        and POTUS Obama wisely saved our country from a complete financial meltdown before starting re-regulation...as POTUS Obama said about Iraq applies here as well...we need to fix these problems as carefully as we recklessly created them...

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:53:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also Agreed. Plus We Need to Start Fixing (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dvogel001, rmx2630, Dauphin

          them while we are in the middle of the crisis caused by those problems.  We must not wait until the new normal arrives, for reasons Dr. Summers addressed in the speech.

          What a relief it is to have solid Keynesians on the WH economics council as opposed to the Greespanics who nearly destroyed us.

          "Give me but one firm spot to stand, and I will move the earth." -- Archimedes

          by Limelite on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:08:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Disagree on your economic forcast (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, dvogel001

      Roubini, first off, is pretty much always bearish. He's one of those guys who predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions.

      Second, the trade deficit has already been cut in half in under a year (link). And it is not at all clear that it need return to previous levels in a recovery. A trade deficit in itself isn't unsustainable; some level of trade deficit likely is sustainable, the question is how much is too much.

      And, many of the structural adjustments that need to occur are already occurring. We have a smaller financial sector, housing sector, and automobile sector.  Other sectors will grow and employ the labor and resources that have been displaced. Some of this will be helped along by aggressive government investment in the meantime. And more aggressive regulation and oversight will prevent the kind of misallocations of capital which caused structural imbalances and bubbles to occur in the first place.

  •  Not in California (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FuddGate, chrome327, RLMiller

    Effects of the recession are very uneven across the country.

    In California, On a statewide basis, year-to-date sales tax collections were down 11.8% while income taxes are down 20.7% from last year's totals through May. If the definition of depression is down 10%, then we're past that mark.  

    New housing starts are down 84%. The state has lost 26% of its construction jobs, compared to 16% nationally, and 7% of its retail jobs, compared to 4% nationally.

    The draconian cuts to California's state budget being pushed by the Worst Governor Ever and his minority Yacht Party members threaten to send another devastating wave of job cuts through the economy.

    Nobody's done the math on the fiscal effects of the twenty billion in spending cuts proposed by the Governor, but let's take some guesses.

    Including money lost in federal matching funds, and the multiplier effect, let's say the total lost economic activity is somewhere around 35 billion. That's 2.3% of the state's 1.5 trillion gross product gone, 3.5 billion in state and local taxes gone, 400,000 more unemployed, an unemployment rate jumping another 2% (and it's already at 11%), thousands of people forced into nursing homes because their home health care coverage disappeared, higher medical insurance rates for those with coverage, another billion dollar hit to our unfunded debt for unemployment insurance, thousands of additional failed small businesses, tens of thousands of additional homeless people, tens of thousands of additional homeowners pushed into default and foreclosure.

    California's in a depression, and spiraling downwards.

    No Real Housewives, but plenty of action at Orange County Progressive Come for the politics. Stay for dessert.

    by Aeolus on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:03:29 AM PDT

    •  Yes but CA will not affect the Democrats in... (0+ / 0-)

      the midterm elections so it is not an issue...as I said the recovery will be uneven around the country...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:32:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Please reread Aeolus' post: (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rmx2630, chrome327

        California is 10-12% of the national economy.  The bursting of our housing bubble (and it was mostly ours) has already caused a massive recession.  If the state fails before the midterm election, as seems very likely, we will take the country down with us.  

        Healthy Minds & Bodies, discussing outdoor adventures Tuesdays 5 PM PDT

        by RLMiller on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:49:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have read his diary... (0+ / 0-)

          and disagree with his conclusions...CA problems are localized and will not have a material effect on the other regions of the country...could CA drag down the national average of GDP growth a 1/2 of a percent...perhaps...but not enough to derail the election of Democrats...

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:53:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  California will recover..the reason, it is the (0+ / 0-)

      most livable place in the country....not too hot, not too cold.  Jobs are another issue but as we move through to the virtual office and they start to connect large parts of California with high speed rail that will resolve itself.  Advice...buy that cheap real estate now...California has been and will always be a good investment.

      •  I have a friend of mine from ... (0+ / 0-)

        NJ who has a place on Catalina (I think) and he said the same thing...the prices in CA are so cheap right now on a square footage basis that it would be hard to lose money even on a rental...

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 12:45:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Fuel prices are everything... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jbou, Sparhawk, waf8868, chrome327

    As a micro-business owner, fuel really impacts our ability to be profitable. As a nation, that is magnified 100X,,,$4.00/gallon is not far off if demand starts to increase. Then...

    I support Obama and the stimulus, but I was struck by the notion that the stimulus will really kick in near the 2010 elections thereby helping Democrats. That idea is a bit self-serving to me. Why should one political party benefit from spending future wealth? I do not understand how that is brilliant as stated in the diary.

    "War is the health of the state." Randolph Bourne "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel."Samuel Johnson

    by american pastoral on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:03:37 AM PDT

    •  Simple: Political victory always (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sparhawk

      trumps good governance.

      Iuris praecepta sunt haec: Honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere. - Ulpian, Digestae 1, 3

      by Dauphin on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:04:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  When I See a Lengthy Diary of the Better Ideas (0+ / 0-)

        of the other side, I'll take this seriously. It makes sense in theory. We don't live in theory.

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:33:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Keeping Republicans out of power... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      acerimusdux, Gooserock

      for the next 40 years is the best thing we can do for long term prosperity of our country and better overall policies...so yes...the end justifies the means...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:38:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We Only Have One Political Party (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dvogel001

      The opposition is a global crime syndicate.

      War crimes, crimes against humanity, crimes against democracy, vast economic crimes, 2 global depressions, denial and acceleration of global climate destruction, and a string of emotionally and even mentally unsound heads of state they've given us.

      It's looney to treat them as a legitimate political party.

      Keeping them out of power? Brilliant? --The literal safety of the world depends on it.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:32:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's not spending future wealth (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rmx2630

      Deficit spending right now, in a recession, does not take away from future wealth it increases it.

      The people who argue that we are spending future wealth are generally the ones who got us into this mess in the first place. I think they just don't understand economics.

  •  The predictions..................... (6+ / 0-)

    ............ are all about the revival of rich peoples money making a recovery.

    Trouble is that it all depends on which side of the 'economy' your bread is buttered on as to weither or not you are going to recover also.

    Ask the folks who lost living wage jobs 15 years ago and add to that the sky-rocketing number that is being added daily. Hardly anyone has been bringing to notice the vast majority of Americans that have been left out of the equation.

    How are the ones in poverty doing? You know, the ones that have lived from hand to mouth since she 1st found out she was pregnant, disabled, mentally ill, or just out of luck when it came to handing out "America's prosperity"? What about the ones ready for college that didn't get grants or scholarships, how are they fairing?

    Don't make the mistake of thinking anything is one bit better for the working class. As soon as any of those roads, bridges or buildings are finished, all those people are still out of living wage jobs. And the government can't continue to fund 'make work' jobs.

    Big money isn't investing in America anymore. The olagarks are too busy funding China so they can make $30% instead of $18%.

    Trouble is that ole working class IS the consummer class and its dieing off, as we type.

    And get real, the people that invested in America on the great Wall Street pipe dream, lost about what they invested.

    If you have 3 cents to rub together, invest in your own GD self, and leave Wall Street and the international monopolies out of it. So that when you come to your old age you might just have something to show for it. This is the only rebuilding that is going to do anything for the average American.

    Governments lie....... quote by Izzy Stone and Amy Goodman

    by socks on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:09:44 AM PDT

    •  So I guess we will put you... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, looking and listening

      in the glass 1/2 empty category...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:34:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Better description (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        waf8868, chrome327

        The real world category - those who want to see systemic change and improvement for everyone's economic situation, not just blips in quarterly statistics.

        Private health insurers always manage to stay one step ahead of the sheriff - Sen. Sherrod Brown

        by Betty Pinson on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:45:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  First you put out the fire... (0+ / 0-)

          then you figure out how to prevent the fire from happening again...the fire has been put out...and the Obama administration is figuring out how to prevent the meltdown from happening again (e.g. derivative reforms)

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:50:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The fire isn't out yet (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            chrome327

            we also need to focus on repairing the damage from the fire, ie getting people back to work with a living wage.

            Economic policy has to focus on more than Wall Street and the Fed.  It also has to focus on Main Street.

            Private health insurers always manage to stay one step ahead of the sheriff - Sen. Sherrod Brown

            by Betty Pinson on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:57:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  A lot of people lost money (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chrome327

      in the stock market.

      But do I dare say some of us couldn't afford to play the stock market and shouldn't have been it.

      IMHO, the stock market is the biggest casino we have. Most folks don't understand how it works anyway. I don't!  Some don't realize that they can and probably will lose their investments.

      Yes, I know about the retirees and the 401ks and I'm not insensitive to their plight.  Hard lesson to learn. Hope we have learned and will teach our children to not become seduced by the quick buck.

      If you can't afford to lose the principal then put your money in a savings account or another low risk vehicle.

      I agree with your advice 'invest in your own self'.  

      •  Partially agree... (0+ / 0-)

        most investors who are no avid readers of financial statements should be in low cost diversified mutual funds and should not be picking individual stocks...

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:07:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, many, many of the people that lost 50% of (0+ / 0-)

          their retirement were in low cost diversified funds but the problem is that the entire market is a casino and being whipped by hedge funds and back room machinations.  Until there is some serious regulation of ALL the financial products that can affect the market, the small investor should stay out unless they want their hard earned money sucked out by the sharks that actually control the market.

          The market has gone through pump and dump(tech bubble), the over inflated company stock driven by the excesss dollars being invested by the baby boomers and the Credit Default Swap fiasco(the market was affected by big investors having to dump equities to pay off their bets) and who knows what else they have invented that we don't even know about yet.

          •  If you were in a balanced... (0+ / 0-)

            not too aggressive fund that was not leveraged...you should have not lost that much and 40% of the loss should be back already...

            Of course you can always keep your money under your mattress...

            Personally, I have some managed funds and then I have some "risk capital" that I buy individual stocks with...they did about the same...down at the lowest about 40% off its high but down about 10% from original amount invested and they have all recovered so I am back over my original principal...

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 02:42:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I am wondering how that would have happened...the (0+ / 0-)

              market at the high was 14,000(low 6500..hence the 50% quote) and is now back to 8800 so while the market has recovered to a degree, if you were in an index fund, you have still lost plenty of money.

              •  That is right... (0+ / 0-)

                assuming you got in at 14,000...but for most people they probably got in at 9,000 or 10,000...not at 14,000

                Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 03:11:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You would be talking about the under 40 crowd, (0+ / 0-)

                  the baby boomers got hosed...they bought the "fairy tale" hook line and sinker.  In fact, if I was the suspicious type, I would suspect that the market makers tanked this market just before the baby boomers started to cash out in 2010 to suck the profits right out of their accounts.

                  •  Hey I am a baby boomer... (0+ / 0-)

                    So I assume you are talking about the oldest baby boomers...and yes some of them will have to postpone retirement a decade if they were not smart and took a significant portion of their gains off the table as they got older...I still have 20 years...

                    BTW an older baby boomer that invested over the years did not get at 14000...they got in at about 4000...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 05:19:52 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  So tell me this, if you had 500 M in December (0+ / 0-)

                      2007 then by my calculation even if you didn't get out you would have 350M.  You would have lost a full third of your savings/growth...you are not likely to make that up any time soon.  

                      But the bigger issue which you have completely ignored is how we got here...the absolute market manipulation by the "market makers" over the last 25 years..the bubbles, the pump and dump schemes, the inflation of the stocks of crap companies by too much money chasing must have returns.  The worst thing that ever happened to the real investor is the 401K and that is also the worst thing that ever happened to people saving for retirement.

                      •  I have been investing in my 401-K... (0+ / 0-)

                        retirement since 1987...diligently putting money in and matching...since 1987 I put in about $200K...the amount I had pre-crash was about $600K and post crash was $400K...so tell me how things are so bad and BTW I am back up to around $475K already

                        As long as you did not go with the hype and the marketmakers you should have been fine over the long run...

                        Take another example my retired father...he retired with a nest egg of$1.5 Million 9 years ago before the crash even with taking out $80K per year he was up to $2.2 Million...after the crash he was down to $1.4 million...now he is back up to $1.6 Million still over what he started with pre-retirement...

                        You don't calculate your total loss based on what you had in December 2007...it is what you started with before the bull market that matters...

                        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                        by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 10:11:43 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  You may calculate the loss that way but once (0+ / 0-)

                          it hits your statement most people count it as their money and consider it a loss.  

                          •  Maybe so... (0+ / 0-)

                            but since I am not touching my 401-K money for 20 years...I definitely look at it by how much did I put in vs where am I at and I am definitely better off than not saving for retirement at all...

                            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                            by dvogel001 on Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 07:05:51 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I do not suggest that a person should not save (0+ / 0-)

                            for retirement, I am suggesting that we need other options.  Our current system of putting our money in stocks and even bonds has made the markets a casino.  Companies used to be rewarded for good business decisions by having money invested in their stocks but now there is so much money sloshing around from retirement funds that you all you have to do is show short term growth and it will drive your stock into the stratosphrere.  People need to be able to depend on their returns and we have no options that will allow that except Treasuries and CD's and again so much money invested that it has driven the returns to nothing.  

                          •  Stocks can certaintly go up or down... (0+ / 0-)

                            that is why you need a strategy that gradually takes money out of stocks as you get closer to retirement and moves those into fixe income generating investments...

                            Then you are immune to the ups and downs of the stock market if by the time you get to retirement you are in near 100% fixed income securities...you then know your monthly income and just need to budget accordingly...

                            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                            by dvogel001 on Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 04:04:52 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

    •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sparhawk, chrome327

      The pervasive pollyannas of prosperity maintain a bias of wealth over labor.  The recovery is going well for them.  For us who actually work for a living, not so well.

      And, since the 80's when has a recovery in economic conditions actually meant spending for R&D or capital projects in America?  For most of manufacturing R&D has been parasitic upon ever decreasing public expenditures on science and technology and capital expenditures are shifted to overseas manufacturing as our industrial base is hollowed out.

      Phooey!  I have no reason to spend on consumer goods manufactured by our economic enemies.

      Distrust of authority should be the first civic duty. - Norman Douglas

      by Fossil on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:16:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Correction (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chrome327

        This comment was meant in reply to socks (one thread above this)! My bad.

        Distrust of authority should be the first civic duty. - Norman Douglas

        by Fossil on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:18:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  In NJ...we just... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        started a massive project to build another rail tunnel under the hudson which will employ over 6000 people for nearly 5 years...now that is a capital improvement in mass transit...

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:23:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  These are real investments in America........... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          chrome327

          ............... but it isn't capital investment, it is government investing because capital won't invest in America now.

          They are vultures, they expect to pay all but nothing in taxes and the IRS rules are written in such a way that monopolies and investor class can weasel out of paying their share.

          As a rule of thumb, working class people pay something like 30-35% of what they earned in income tax and have few, if any, loopholes that favor them. Add to that taxes on what you buy, state and city and county taxes, kinda rough huh.

          American businesses and especially international monopolies pay around 7%, tho on the scale they also have around a 35% tax levy, they just are allowed loopholes for almost everything and if they do off shore liscensing they get out of even most of the 7%.

          When this nation began the whole of taxes collected were upon businesses, not people----nada, zip. I guess the monied crowd who owned businesses kinda turned the tables on us.  

          Governments lie....... quote by Izzy Stone and Amy Goodman

          by socks on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:40:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I believe POTUS Obama and the Democrats... (0+ / 0-)

            are trying to close business loopholes for tax avoidance...so he is addressing your concern...

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:42:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I heard that too............... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              chrome327

              .........along with how regulations would be put in place to make sure investment banks and investment insurance and Wall Street couldn't blow holes in the economy again.

              All the while I see oil prices climbing, because commodity investors bought oil and are sitting on it to raise the price again. Kinda like they did about a year ago. But I still haven't seen legislation curtailing any of this kind of theft from the American people. Have you?

              Governments lie....... quote by Izzy Stone and Amy Goodman

              by socks on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:58:23 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  These things take time... (0+ / 0-)

                it took FDR 10 years to put in the regulation reforms and some of them he never got done...

                Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:01:07 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I hope your optomism................ (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  dvogel001, chrome327

                  ............... is rewarded. I honesly do.

                  My own lack of it rests in so many U turns, mostly that Gietner and co. have done. Just this week he's pulling yet another "oh lets let em get away with it after all" prank on us. And still no call of regulation. He acts like he is afraid of the thieves.

                  Honestly, If I knew where the tar and feathers were kept, I'd be putting my hat on and out the door now.

                  I know too many people making plans to live in their cars, Grandparents looking after the kids, living on less than a dignified living for the hard hours they are working, to get very enthusiastic about our gracious leaders lack of pounding the heads that have hurt us so much.

                  Governments lie....... quote by Izzy Stone and Amy Goodman

                  by socks on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:13:36 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  You have to realize there are serious... (0+ / 0-)

                considerations on these policies...I have a client in the shipping (container boat) industry that currently used tax loopholes to pay low taxes in the US but they also employ thousands of Americans at ports...they tell me they are considering having their corporation completely offshored and employ virtually no American workers as well as virtually no US taxes as a result...

                So what is the answer...do we want 7% or 0% from them as well as less Americans employed...not sure...

                Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:04:44 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  How about good old fashioned.................. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  chrome327

                  .............. tarriffs and import duties?

                  Governments lie....... quote by Izzy Stone and Amy Goodman

                  by socks on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:16:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  There we would have to look... (0+ / 0-)

                    at trade treaties and potential retaliation...as well...there is no free lunch...not saying it is not possible...but it is not like throwing on a money switch...the corporations that exploit these loopholes have choices in many cases...and unfortunately for the US they have built their business model around paying 7% taxes not 35% taxes...not saying it is right...but it is reality...

                    Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                    by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:19:31 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I must agree with you........... (0+ / 0-)

                      ........... on that.

                      We would however find that bottom rockbed from where we can begin rebuilding again.

                      dvogel, I have a kind of view of the history our nation began with, that leads me to mistrust the free trade type philosophy/Globalism.

                      In short, our founders overthrew the oppression of the East India Company/Globalistic international monopolies and Imperial Monarchy/supreme Executive in favor of personal freedoms for citizens and a governance that worked for the good of all the citizens.

                      Governments lie....... quote by Izzy Stone and Amy Goodman

                      by socks on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:31:55 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  Recovery benefits the working classes most (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dvogel001

      Recessions generally hit the least off hardest. Most of the well off still manage to do well enough in a recession. It is the people losing jobs who get hardest hit.

      It is true that we've had a long period where most peoples wages haven't kept up with inflation. But to fully correct that, and get workers a fairer share, we still need economic recovery first. You need a strong economy and jobs market in order for workers to have the leverage to get more wages. Obama's more fair tax policies will help, as will his health care plan, in correcting some of the inequality as well. And hopefully we can get some people in at the Fed in the meantime who won't start whining about inflation fears and raising interest rates at any first signs that wages are rising.

  •  Thanks for the good news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dvogel001

    (The responses were pretty much as expected! :-))

  •  Optimism isn't helping pay the bills (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrome327

    Like many families, we're caught in a situation of lower income, higher insurance, household, energy and health care costs combined with college loans for kids.

    Our household income has remained flat for the last 10 yrs. as the cost of living rises. Each year we spend less and less on consumer goods and all those other discretionary items that help the economy grow.

    We can feel hopeful and optimistic, but it isn't going to make it any easier to increase our spending or improve our financial outlook.

    Private health insurers always manage to stay one step ahead of the sheriff - Sen. Sherrod Brown

    by Betty Pinson on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:41:30 AM PDT

    •  Certaintly it sucks to... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      be underemployed or to have your income stagnated...not going to argue with that...hopefully your fortunes will change as the economy improves...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:46:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Its not a personal failure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chrome327

        its a systemic problem millions of Americans have been dealing with for the last decade or longer. Rising health care, insurance and energy costs have been eroding everyone's income.  

        http://business.theatlantic.com/...

        To say we should expect no more from Democratic leaders than we did of Republican ones is wrong.

        Private health insurers always manage to stay one step ahead of the sheriff - Sen. Sherrod Brown

        by Betty Pinson on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:54:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well I do not know your personal... (0+ / 0-)

          situation and why your income has stagnated...so I cannot comment...but there are many people who will need to re-invent their careers in the next 10 years...and I believe that POTUS Obama will be an activist in helping many do just that (like green jobs)...

          I have one ancedotal example, the construction contractor who finished our basement has been in business for 35 years mainly doing additions, basements and kitchen/bath remodeling...of course his business is hurting right now and he is in his mid 50s.

          He has reinvented a portion of his business focused on doing energy surveys and making houses more energy efficient and green.  That part of his business is growing...he knew nothing about that when I met him 6 years ago...

          People will have to re-invent themselves...

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:59:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You may want to (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            chrome327

            view the link in my post above.  It explains a great deal about the effect of health care costs on everyone's discretionary income.

            Getting a second and third job isn't a wise substitute for ensuring our political leaders implement sound economic policy.  

            Private health insurers always manage to stay one step ahead of the sheriff - Sen. Sherrod Brown

            by Betty Pinson on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:06:55 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Admittedly, While Income Levels Rose (0+ / 0-)

      0.5% in April, probably the rise of gas prices at the pump ate that up.

      Whether the reason crude prices are climbing is based on speculation or increased demand (a sign of improved economy) is difficult to tease out just yet.  The difference that reason makes to economic recovery is important.

      This is a global recession, so the increased demand for oil by emerging countries will have a positive impact to our homegrown economy.  While the US may lead Europe out of recession, it appears now that China, Brazil, and India will lead the world out of it.

      "Give me but one firm spot to stand, and I will move the earth." -- Archimedes

      by Limelite on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:55:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Last time I checked (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chrome327

        the US isn't leading the world in economic recovery. Europe is doing a better job.

        http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/...

        Private health insurers always manage to stay one step ahead of the sheriff - Sen. Sherrod Brown

        by Betty Pinson on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:03:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Perhaps I Should Have Made My Point (0+ / 0-)

          more closely by saying GB, especially, and Europe  as in Iceland, Ireland, and Eastern.

          Your reference is a about currency fluctuations that are giving "on paper" advantage to England's competitiveness, not economic recovery in the sense of solving the underlying problems of systemic financial failure that have produced the global economic collapse.  Their economies will lag until they become more aggressive, as the US has been, in solving the underlying problems, not just stopping the bleeding, which is what the bailouts did.  In stopping the bleeding, the Brits applied the correct approach that we increasingly adopted and adapted once we ran Bush out of office.

          "Give me but one firm spot to stand, and I will move the earth." -- Archimedes

          by Limelite on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:17:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  A couple of comments and an alternative link... (0+ / 0-)

          I like Krugman but he has always been critical of the stimulus mix so it is natural that his opinion (and a blog is an opinion) is that the UK approach was better (although they did their fair share of bailouts)

          Overall when you look at the major indicies linked here...

          http://finance.yahoo.com/...

          You will find only minor differences in the past 12 months...and the UK was ahead of us from before Obama was in office and we never caught up...they had a head start because we were still dealing with the lame duck idiot GWB while they were moving ahead with concrete plans...I suspect within a year everything will even out...

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 08:20:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  You've got to be kidding (7+ / 0-)

    The worst is yet to come. Interest rates are on the rise and servicing the debt on the bonds the U.S. needs to sell to cover the deficit will be a pretty painful few years of inflation.  Anyone who is fooled by a momentary feel good rise in the Dow or the bizarre "consumer confidence" index (from a fickle people) is, well, fooled.

    •  As interest rates rise... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Support Civil Liberty

      there are appropriate monetary policies that can counter that rise in interest rates...they are still at historically low levels...

      My 30 year fixed mortgage is at 7.75% with excellent credit and 75% LTV ratio...that is still significantly above the current interest rates...and BTW last week the treasury rate fell back again...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 07:48:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And what does it do to savings? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chrome327, Betty Pinson

        Inflation decimates savings; which is exactly what people should be doing now instead of spending, but anyone who saves dollars is probably wasting their time.  Savings in precious metals is probably a better option.  I agree that right now the interest rates are still low, but check back in a year -- and hang onto that mortgage, I would be surprised to see 12%+ by next summer.

    •  No chance of significant inflation. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dvogel001

      As Paul Kugman would say "for the 1.6 trillionth time, we are in a liquidity trap."
      http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/...

      Anyone who thinks there is going to be painful inflation, or that servicing the debt on money we borrow now will be difficult, simply doesn't understand the economics. These are the same folks who predicted massive deficits and inflation burdening the economy as a result of the Clinton budgets, and were left mumbling incoherently to themselves when we instead ended up with surpluses and record economic growth.

      •  Tipped for referencing WJC...n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 10:03:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Nope... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sparhawk, Support Civil Liberty

        Krugman is completely ignoring the fact that monetizing debt devalues currency, which pushes up the price of oil, which pushes up the prices of goods in a perfect cost-push inflation model.  Krugman is trapped by normalized economic thinking which believes that stagflation occured only because of excessive government regulations and wages pushes and thus that inflation can only occur when an economy overheats.  He's wrong, and if what happens next happens the only way it can expect inflation to hit 300% within 2 years.

        "Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center." - Kurt Vonnegut

        by Mister Gloom on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 11:13:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No way out (0+ / 0-)

          Agreed; there is no way to pay off this debt except by devaluing the currency.  Zimbabwe here we come....

          Tips to you for not accepting Krugman as Divine Inerrancy.

          •  Not quit Zimbabwe... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Support Civil Liberty

            ...I doubt inflation hits 5,000% like it did with them

            "Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center." - Kurt Vonnegut

            by Mister Gloom on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 11:27:32 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  So let me ask you what is your... (0+ / 0-)

            suggestion of what to do...confiscate all the wealth of the top 1%...or are you saying no matter what we are screwed...?

            Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

            by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 12:52:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Change course fast (0+ / 0-)

              My suggestion (for which there is no political will to do -- but there is no political will in this country) is to abolish the Fed to prevent the manipulation of interest rates in which capital is malinvested (witness housing bubble), return the U.S. currency to something sound, like gold or silver, to avoid printing and devaluing, immediate implementation of withdrawal of troops from foreign bases and shutting down of the empire, and quickly throw out this very dangerous and expensive "public option" proposal and open Medicare to all ages with a sliding scale premium and limitation on coverage to $250,000 per year, and allow private insurance to compete for the supplement.

        •  Krugman when he criticized the... (0+ / 0-)

          Obama economic plan was the Dkos hero now he is an idiot...right I get it...if you agree with me you are brilliant Nobel prized winning economist if not then you are a blithering idiot...Riiiight.../snark

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 12:51:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  So what is your solution Mr. Gloom? n/t (0+ / 0-)

          Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

          by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 12:53:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Sparhawk, Support Civil Liberty

            I support certain measures of Support Civil Liberties comments (withdrawing of troops), am interested in but can't yet support some others (his health proposal is at least interesting, but I don't know enough about potential effects to support it yet), but I should point out that I'm opposed to his monetary policy (metal based money is subject to the same pressures that fiat currency is, it just shows it in different ways as indicated by the fiscal crises of the later half of the 1800s).

            We need to balance the budget quickly, with our current debt we're currently inbetween a rock and a hard place (thanks again George W. Bush) regarding debt pushed inflation vs. deflationary depression.  We can use the "spend till you drop" as a stimulus for only a limited time until the national debt causes the crises I'm commenting on...though I don't know when exactly that will kick in (with the comments by Bernanke, Bill Gross, Jeremy Siegel, and a few others being warning signs, though I don't think they expect it to get quite this bad) but then we have to have huge spending cuts.  Its time that the US cut up its credit cards for the foreseeable future until this debt problem gets taken care of.  

            "Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center." - Kurt Vonnegut

            by Mister Gloom on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 02:07:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  And we have passed how many stimulus.. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Support Civil Liberty

              packages...ONE...so Mr. Gloom...what would you cut from the budget to balance it...I have some ideas...but I will bet they will sound quite Republican to you...

              Until the budget is balanced:

              1. No funding for Healthcare for members of congress...sure they can be covered...but they pay their own premiums and raise their deductibles and co-pays to that of a $10,000 per year plan in the private market...
              1. No funding for the Arts, Public Radio, Public TV
              1. Stop funding future government employee pensions...convert them to a "401-K" type plan for the current balance.
              1. Withdraw 50% of all troops from NATO bases
              1. Put tolls on all Interstate Highways like they have in Europe on the "AutoRoutes"
              1. Eliminate the penny.
              1. Freeze all wages of government employees except for grade (promotion) increases
              1. Cut all farm subsidies to all farms that have a gross income over $5 Million
              1. Cut all corporate subsidies to multi-national corporations based on their ratio of US/Foreign employees.  So if they get $10 Million tax benefit and 60% of their employees are outside the US then the forfiet $6 Million of the tax benefit
              1. Increase user fees at all national parks to cover the real cost of maintaining those parks

              Well that would be a start anyway...what are your ideas...

              Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

              by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 02:34:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Skeptical of my own ideas! (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Sparhawk

              I support a metal based currency in order to minimize the ability of the government to devalue the currency.  The metal base is just a means to an end....or a means to a safeguard!  I'd be open to hear other ideas on how to get away from fiat currency.  I think fiat currency, Fed manipulation, unstable regulation, and the misconception of economics as "national," as the greatest threats to our economy and our country's future.

              As for my health care proposal, that is capitulation to the zeitgeist that some form of federal universal coverage is inevitable.  I am very much opposed to federal health care as I believe the U.S. is too large and diverse to have an effective federal program; the States should be developing health care responses, not the federal government. But, assuming there will be a federal plan, then I think it is inefficient and wasteful to establish a new agency, new rules, and a new layer of administrative waste when there is already a very large federal program, Medicare, which health care providers know how to deal with and has established rules. If we are going to have a federal plan, then use the one that is already there and be done with it (but people should pay sliding scale premiums to participate in it).

              •  I belive NJ has a great model... (0+ / 0-)

                for healthcare in their small-business coverage 2-50 people...

                1. Standardized plans that are approved by the state and companies can bid on providing to the public on a per family/capita basis.  NJ requires these plans to be written in plain english in an easily readable format for all terms and conditions
                1. No pre-existing conditions
                1. Community rating, no individual risk rating for anyone...the premium is the same for all in the defined community large enough to spread the risk...
                1. I would add that the plan congress has should be open to anyone who wants to join for a % of your AGI.  Let people in congress share the pain.
                1. I would also cap the exposure of insurers to $25K per year per individual.  All costs above that are shared by all taxpayers in a shared catastrophic funded by a revenue of some sort...could be a tax on healthcare or some other general revenue tax
                1. Standardized billing for all procedures across all approved insurers.
                1. Require reporting of % of dollars spent for healthare vs all other expenses so people can determine efficiency
                1. Require reporting of % and $ of claims denied, delayed, appealed, accepted and rejected on a quarterly basis for determining good/bad coverage...although that would be greatly diminished if #5 was implemented...
                1. Create a surtax on all medical provider income from above R&C charges of 80% of the amount above R&C charges...pay into the fund for #5...
                1. Require all medical providers to charge individuals without insurance the same rates as the federal plan reimbursement...

                Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

                by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 10:50:39 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  none of that is true right now (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dvogel001

          There is no currency devaluation going on. You have a global deflationary environment, thus the value of currency globally is generally increasing, not falling. Moreover, because it is global, all of our major trading partners also need stimulus plans, and also are pursuing accommodating monetary policies.  

          And, this global response has been coordinated. All G20 countries have committed to stimulus plans of at least 2% of GDP, and all are participating in coordinated efforts by central banks to increase liquidity. This includes major trading partners like China and major oil exporters like Saudi Arabia.

          It would be far more costly for these countries to experience deeper recessions just in order to try and defend their own currencies against the dollar. This is especially true of countries which depend on exports. The dollar can only be devalued if it is devalued relative to other currencies.

          As a result, the value of the dollar has been rising, not falling, and is up about 9% over the last year against our major trade partners (per the trade weighted exchange index).

          You are assuming a whole string of events which haven't occurred and aren't likely to occur. You are assuming that debt will be monetized. There's no evidence of that. Actual US currency growth over the last 5 years has been at a 4.7% annualized rate, which after subtracting 3.5% for population and productivity growth, suggests that long term inflation from monetary causes should only run around 1.2%.  

  •  I certainly hope you're right re electoral good (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dvogel001

    news but I read Calculated Risk and some of the economic blogs linked therein, and I don't see any reason for consumer optimism.  

    1.  The recovery is likely to be L shaped rather than V shaped.  A jobless recovery is great for Wall Street but lousy for people.
    1.  The current perception that housing market is bottoming out is just that, a perception.  There's another equally valid perception that the lowest priced homes have reached, or are reaching, bottom, but the mid to high end market is not done falling, for reasons too long to explain in a comment.  The investors who've snapped up the low end houses aren't going to help the overall market.
    1.  Consumer confidence notwithstanding, some of the more astute observers (e.g., Krugman) have noted that the green shoots of March withered in May and early June.
    1.  Your diary sets off every other paragraph, which helps with its readability (please stop with the excessive ellipses!) but contains no links other than one Reuters article.  A persuasive economic diary will have more data -- statistics from multiple sources, links, graphs, etc.

    Healthy Minds & Bodies, discussing outdoor adventures Tuesdays 5 PM PDT

    by RLMiller on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:03:40 AM PDT

    •  Fair enough comments... (0+ / 0-)

      tipped for that...

      I guess my overall point was that perceptions are voters' reality...and the unemployed/underemployed are unlikely to vote Republican anyway and I believe they know as bad as things are and as frustrated as they are...they were more frustrated on Mr. GWB I could care less about your problems unless you are from an oil company or Halliburton...

      (and that is my comment - parenthetically.../snark)

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:09:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Since We Relocated Here in Rustbeltia Last Fall, (0+ / 0-)

      the realtors say the only properties that've been moving for a year and more are in the starter and fixemup lower end of the market.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:14:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As I said... (0+ / 0-)

        the recovery will be quite uneven (not uncommon for a deep recession) and clearly the rustbelt will be a slower recovery than other regions of the country...and that will including housing prices...

        Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

        by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:17:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  50% Own Stocks -- I Think This is Very Misleading (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrome327

    I think only a very few own stocks directly or in ways that affect their annual budgets. House prices have had more immediate effects because of the ability to withdraw equity.

    So I don't see the stock market having that much direct effect on the confidence of most people.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:12:49 AM PDT

    •  Talk to retirees living off their... (0+ / 0-)

      investments (not the ones just on SS)...they will tell you...hey when the market is up I go out to dinner if not I eat a baloney sandwich...

      Obama - Real Leadership for a Real Change

      by dvogel001 on Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 09:15:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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