Whenever Westerners get too involved in a cause, I become nervous. And skeptical. Too often we conflate what we believe is good and what we want with what we think other countries should have. The reaction to the Iranian election is shaping up to be another exercise in well intentioned Westerners making a situation worse. I know this diary won't be received well, but I really can't stand by and watch all this without throwing in my 2 cents.
There is an op-ed in the Washington Post, written by two pollsters who (by their account) conducted thorough, independent and reliable polls leading up to the election. Here is the link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
The conclusion they drew from their polls leading up to the election was that Ahmadenijad was going to win handly. Not one person has stopped to consider this possiblity (at least no diary has been written which considers this position). My aim in this diary is not to say Ahmadenijad won or that the violence afterwards is justified. It is merely to say that I think people in the West, the vast majority of whom really have no clue about what is going on over there, need to step back, take a deep breath and separate their own desires from what the real situation is.
Too many times, people in the West form a view about other countries and then believe that only that view can possibly be the correct reality. I suggest that a real investigation into the election results be promoted. I suggest a real analysis by real political scientists be conducted. And I suggest that everyone in the West that doesn't no jack shit about the politics, demographics etc. STFU for a minute and get off your high horse.
As for the violence afterwards, its tragic. But how much of it is being spurred on by angry politicians that (may have) lost and are now pushing their supporters to riot in the streets. (a lot of these protestors are not just singing hymns of peace, but are rather taking up stones and throwing them at police). We have seen this in Thailand recently, where the leader in exile called on his people to turn to violence while he was off cozy somewhere in hiding. We have seen it in Ethiopia in 2005 (where I am from) where, yes the election was actually in part stolen (it was a very close election and the ruling power conceded some 40% of parliamentary seats while the opposition claimed a majority) and the side that lost encouraged its supporters to turn to violence. In both cases, what you have is angry people at the top encouraging innocent people to turn to the streets, where as we know they are meeting the butt of the gun. Of course, you also have trigger happy police and military at the disposal of the ruling party. In this current situation, we have the added interest of the West. No one cared about Ethiopia and no one (other than tourists planning a vaction during that time) cared about Thailand. But Iran, has our interest. We believe if only Ahmadinejad is out of power, things will get better. So here we are. Claiming that the election was stolen (which it may have been, but I don't think anyone really knows that at this point).
Its dangerous, symptomatic of the sort of arrogance that many nations feel America and the rest of the West display when it comes to them, and it serves no useful purpose. Twitter will not bring change to that country.
I will say again, I desperately wanted Ahmadinejad to lose. But as an Ethiopian American who has watched time and again Americans make two bit analysis of things there, and who has also seen how local media and competing forces in the country can manipulate a situation to their advantage, I know that too often American understanding of certain things (particularly a society like Iran) is often completely wrong.
Please read the Washington Post article and try to find as many objective sources as possible. Here is a passage from the Post article that I think should be reflected upon (especially in light of accusations of a "coup" by Ahmadinejad and other similar accusations.
Allegations of fraud and electoral manipulation will serve to further isolate Iran and are likely to increase its belligerence and intransigence against the outside world. Before other countries, including the United States, jump to the conclusion that the Iranian presidential elections were fraudulent, with the grave consequences such charges could bring, they should consider all independent information. The fact may simply be that the reelection of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted.