Last night I attended an event which gave a very interesting perspective on the three statewide races in Virginia, for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General. It was a campaign kickoff for Jay Fisette for a fourth term on Arlington County Board. There is no doubt Jay will be reelected - he has no Republican opponent. There is a Green candidate running against him, which seem foolhardy given that during Jay's term as the immediate past president of the Virginia Municipal League he lead the effort to create the Go Green Virginia Initiative Arlington also has a large gay population, and Jay, when elected in 1997, was Virginia's first openly gay elected official (Arlington has since elected several more, to school board and to the state's General Assembly).
So why did all three statewide candidates come to this event? And what does that tell us about forthcoming statewide races?
Virginia's statewide ticket is geographically diverse. AG candidate Steve Shannon is from nearby Fairfax County, where he has served as a prosecutor and represented part of the County in the General Assembly. This was an easy trip for him. LG Candidate Jody Wagner is from Virginia Beach, where she lost a close race for the US House in 2000, then served almost 8 years as state Treasurer under Mark Warner and Secretary of Finance under Tim Kaine. And by now almost everyone knows about our gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, from Bath County, over on the WV border. He has served as a prosecutor, in the House of Delegates, and in the State Senate (a total of 18 years in the General Assembly) and 4 years ago lost the race for AG by 323 votes to his Republican opponent for Governor, Bob McDonnell, currently from Virginia Beach but who grew up in Fairfax County.
All three have had occasion to do business with Jay as he has gone to Richmond to advocate for urban areas, both on behalf of Arlington, and more broadly for the Municipal League. All respect him, and offered remarks to that regard. But certainly he did not need their help, yet they all arrange to come on his behalf. And perhaps this will give some insight to Virginia's politics.
Northern Virginia, especially Arlington and Fairfax Counties, is key for any Democrat running statewide. A Democrat wants to maximize his/her margin there to offset and difficulties in the more rural and Republican parts of the state. Some Democrats have done well in the rural areas, especially Mark Warner running for Governor on 2001 and Senator last year, while still doing well in the urban areas. Creigh Deeds lost statewide 4 years ago because he was not well known and did not do well in Northern Virginia. There was also some concern about his positions on issues like guns and gay rights. As people were reminded by one of his primary opponents, even though Creigh says he personally voted against the Marshall-Newman bill which allowed a referendum to constitutionally define marriage as between one man and one woman, he voted to allow the referendum to take place. His cordial relations with an openly gay elected official before an audience that included some of the most political active members of the gay community (including several representatives of DC's Gertrude Stein Democratic Club) was an important way of reaching out. So is the fact that he is moving his statewide headquarters from Charlottesville (in his State Senatorial District) to Alexandria, in NoVa. Creigh has also as a rural white had some trouble making connection with the African American community. He has received strong validation from State Senators Don McEachin and Henry Marsh, at a rally on Saturday in Williamsburg Rep. Bobby Scott advocated for the entire ticket, and yesterday the campaign announced the appointment as political director of Levar Stoney, an African American who has been serving (brilliantly) as executive director of the Democratic Party of Virginia including the entire presidential campaign.
But NoVa is the key. And if one looks at the results in 2005, one can see why. Tim Kaine took over 74% of the vote in Arlington in his successful gubernatorial run, with a margin of almost 30,000 votes, almost 1/3 of his total statewide margin. But Creigh, while winning almost 73%, saw a margin of only about 26,000. Bob McDonnell got about 1,400 more votes as AG than Jerry Kilgore did as the Republican nominee for Governor.
Or perhaps we can look at Fairfax County, the state's most heavily populated political jurisdiction. Tim Kaine over 56% of the vote with a margin of 60,000+ (and you will note that were one to add in places like Alexandria, Falls Church, etc., NoVa accounted for all of Kaine's statewide margin). Deeds won only 57.7%, with a margin of less than 42,000 votes.
If Deeds were even to marginally improve his performance in Northern Virginia, he would have an advantage over McDonnell. All the trends point in that direction. Consider the following races
2006 US Senate Statewide Arlington Fairfax
Webb 49.59 72.56 58.90
Allen 49.20 26.28 40.03
2008
President
Obama 52.62 71.71 60.11
McCain 46.33 27.12 38.93
US Senate
Warner 65.03 75.96 67.90
Gilmore 33.72 22.41 30.87
It is also worth noting that Obama has already committed to campaigning for Deeds, which will help not only in NoVa, but in Richmond and Hampton Roads, places with large African American populations. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are both committed to helping the entire ticket.
NoVa's population is growing faster than the rest of the Commonwealth. Deeds - and his running mates - will also have to be more competitive in outer ring suburbs like Loudoun and Prince William. The pattern of voting is changing there as well, with Democrats doing better each successive cycle.
And there are interconnections with key local races as well. Currently the Dems hold the State Senate by 21-19. If Deeds were elected governor, as I expect he will be, we would temporarily have only a 1 seat margin, with the possibility of slipping to a 20-20 tie where the LG would have the tiebreaking vote. We think we could hold that seat in a special. In the House of Delegates we need to pick up net 6 seats for control. A number of those seats are in NoVa, and several candidates, from Fairfax County, were also present last night. One of the keys will be in the 13th, where John Bell is taking on Bob Marshall, co-author of the aforementioned Marshall-Newman amendment. John got an enthusiastic reception last night. He and I talked and he will be reaching out for support to the blogs, both in Virginia at Blue Commonwealth and nationally at Daily Kos. This race is key for changing the unjust social policies that have resulted because of Republican control of at least one house of the general assembly.
As I look back the morning after, only two days after attending the unity rally in Williamsburg, my sense is that Democrats in Virginia are fired up and ready to go. Yes, we saw some falloff in special elections, most notably in Alexandria where there has been some dysfunction within the local Democratic organization. But active Democrats, especially in Arlington but also in Fairfax, are very well aware of the importance of this statewide cycle. We have no intention of letting this opportunity slip by. If we win the statewide races, especially the governor's, and take control of the House of Delegates, we will have complete control of redistricting after the next census. That will define control of the General Assembly for a decade, and could mean a net of a couple more seats in the US House. Of more immediate importance, complete control of the state government will mean continued progress economically, and perhaps finally addressing the transportation needs, especially in NoVa and Hampton Roads, for which the Republican control of the House of Delegates has served as an obstacle.
Tip O'Neill is noted for having remarked that all politics is local. Last night I attended what should have been a local event of not very great importance, a reelection kickoff for a popular local official with no meaningful opposition. It is not only the respect in which Jay Fisette is held that made it more than that. It is the understanding by Virginia Democrats of the importance of maximizing votes everywhere this cycle that contributed to all three statewide candidates showing up. So did Congressman Jim Moran, in whose district we were. Also Larry Roberts, who runs the DNC on a day to day basis for his long-time friend Governor Tim Kaine.
Through the lens of the local politics of Northern Virginia, I sense something important happening. I have live in Arlington since October of 1982. This will be my 7th statewide campaign. This is the most unified I have ever seen the party. Turning Virginia Blue last year for Obama was historic, the first time in 44 years a Dem had carried the Old Dominion. We similarly expect to break the "historic" pattern of voting the other way for governor the subsequent year. America has changed, as we saw in November. Virginia was a part of that change. Obama finished his campaign in Manassas, in Prince William County. Obama is committed to continuing that change this year.
We are fired up and ready to go. Even if our local races are not competitive in Arlington, we expect to turn out massively to do our part to continue turning Virginia from purple to blue.
Peace.