Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4%.
Favorability Ratings: Oregon Governor
Peter DeFazio (D) 47/22
John Kitzhaber (D) 46/26
Gordon Smith (R) 39/48
Greg Walden (R) 36/25
Bill Bradbury (D) 33/15
Jason Atkinson (R) 29/19
Steve Novick (D) 16/5
With a lot of potentially intriguing figures glancing at the race, the contest to select Oregon's next governor could become a marquee race for 2010. This poll suggests that, at the outset, the Democrats are at least a modest favorite to retain the governorship, currently held by two-term Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski.
One of the most compelling names to surface in the past couple of months in this race is former Oregon governor John Kitzhaber, who served the state from 1995 to 2003. Currently, he has modest leads over all three potential Republican challengers:
General Election Trial Heat: Oregon Governor
John Kitzhaber (D) 46
Gordon Smith (R) 37
John Kitzhaber (D) 44
Greg Walden (R) 38
John Kitzhaber (D) 48
Jason Atkinson (R) 35
Another name routinely in the mix has been longtime central Oregon Congressman Peter DeFazio, who leapt into the deep end of the statewide pool in 1996, when he was a contender for the Senate seat made available by the resignation of Senator Bob Packwood (R).
DeFazio is said to be vacillating between seeking another term in the House (a contest made easier, no doubt, with top NRCC recruit and Springfield's GOP mayor Sid Leiken already in an ethical bind) and running for governor. Should he run, he does just as well as Kitzhaber, if not slightly better:
Peter DeFazio (D) 47
Gordon Smith (R) 37
Peter DeFazio (D) 45
Greg Walden (R) 37
Peter DeFazio (D) 48
Jason Atkinson (R) 34
Of course, neither Kitzhaber nor DeFazio have made clear their intentions to run for governor in 2010. One Democratic candidate is already in the field, however: former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Bradbury and one potential Republican challenger (former Senator Gordon Smith) have already locked horns--Smith defeated Bradbury by double digits back in 2002. In 2009, however, it is quite a different story:
Bill Bradbury (D) 42
Gordon Smith (R) 38
Bill Bradbury (D) 40
Greg Walden (R) 39
Bill Bradbury (D) 41
Jason Atkinson (R) 34
After a very competitive 2008 Democratic primary, where he lost to now-Senator Jeff Merkley by just a 45-42 margin, Steve Novick is contemplating a re-entry into statewide politics by running for governor. He has not, unfortunately, retained much name recognition from that primary bid (only 21% of voters had a favorable or unfavorable impression of him), and as such, he trails all three better known Republicans:
Steve Novick (D) 28
Gordon Smith (R) 41
Steve Novick (D) 28
Greg Walden (R) 43
Steve Novick (D) 29
Jason Atkinson (R) 34
The only confirmed candidate on the Republican side is a minor candidate (Allen Alley, who lost in a 2008 bid for state treasurer). Walden and Smith have both been mentioned for the race, and there is enough interest in Walden's entry that a local GOP firm polled Walden against both DeFazio and Kitzhaber. That poll claimed Walden was within four points of both men. Our poll had the margin a bit wider, but did confirm that Walden (who has represented inland Oregon's 2nd CD for over a decade) is a potentially stronger candidate than Gordon Smith, who seems to have taken on a little political baggage from his 2008 defeat.
Barack Obama, as expected in a state that elected him by seventeen points, remains popular in the state, with 62% having a favorable opinion of him versus just 31% holding an unfavorable view.