Despite Washington’s fascination with "independent" voters, survey data shows that almost nine in ten American voters are currently attached, in varying degrees, to one or the other of the two parties. Some of those are independents that lean toward a party rather than identifying with a party outright. But in their demographics, voting behavior, and political attitudes, these independent leaners more closely resemble committed partisans than they do the small minority of "pure independents."
Furthermore, for the first time since the mid-1960s, those who identify with and lean to the Democratic Party now comprise a majority of voters. Demographically those who lean to a party look a lot like those who identify with that party, and they vote very much like them.
The following table, using data collected by Frank N. Magid Associates about a week before Election Day 2008, displays the presidential and congressional vote intentions of party identifiers, independents who lean to a party, and unaffiliated independents.
2008 Vote
Intention Strong Weak. Ind. Inde- Ind. Weak Strong
Dem. Dem. Dem. pendent Rep. Rep. Rep.
Obama 93% 56% 78% 37% 2% 19% 4%
McCain 3% 15% 8% 24% 84% 73% 93%
Other 1% 1% 1% 11% 1% 1% 1%
Undecided 3% 27% 13% 29% 12% 7% 2%
Dem.Cong. 94% 63% 64% 19% 1% 5% 3%
Rep. Cong. 1% 8% 3% 19% 62% 70% 85%
Other -- 1% 1% 6% -- 1% --
Undecided 7% 28% 33% 56% 37% 25% 12%
These results lead to a number of clear and important conclusions about the voting behavior of independents, both those who lean to a party and those who don't.
• The independent leaners are decisively partisan. Upwards of eight in 10 of them indicated the intent to vote for the presidential candidate of the party to which they lean. In fact, they were more likely to do so than those who identify weakly with a party. About two-thirds of independent leaners said they would vote for the congressional candidate of the party to which they lean. Almost none expressed any willingness to cross party lines and vote for opposition candidates.
• On one level the uncommitted independents are nonpartisan. The choices of those "pure independents" that had made one at the time of the survey were divided fairly evenly. A significant number of them had not yet determined for whom they would vote. However, it is a misperception to portray the "pure independents" as voters who were closely observing the political process and carefully weighing their choices. In the face of the social desirability of wanting to appear concerned about a crucial election at a time of major national stress, only about 60% of the uncommitted independents (in contrast to nearly 90% of the other groups) said that it was very important to them who was elected president. Many, if not most, of the uncommitted independents were nonpartisan simply because they had too little concern with politics to make a choice.
This puts President Obama and his Democratic congressional colleagues in position to break the gridlock that has dominated Washington for the past four decades. To do that they will have to take a new, outside the Beltway, look at the electorate and all of its component parts. They will have to recognize that voters have moved America into a new era and have the fortitude to follow.