If Sarah Palin's abrupt resignation demonstrates anything today, it is that she does not plan to run for president in 2012. I know this runs counter to speculation from a few heavy hitting political talking heads (like Donna Brazile and Bill Kristol), but let's analyze how the announcement unfolded.
The press conference was essentially impromptu; no lights, no background setting. Moments prior to the press conference, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo notes that Palin tweeted about her decision not to run for re-election but gave no indication of resigning:
4:20 PM ... Hmmm. Even better. This is Gov. Palin's 'announcement', such as it is, on Twitter ...
We'll soon attach info on decision to not seek re-election... this is in Alaska's best interest, my family's happy... it is good, stay tuned
She apparently didn't realize she was resigning yet. Stuff obviously moving pretty quickly ...
We know the Republican head of the Alaskan senate, Palin's brother, the lieutenant governor, and others were taken wholly by surprise at this decision. Todd flew in the night before from an offshore fishing job to attend the press conference that Palin said had been "weeks in the planning." He couldn't get an earlier flight? Daughter Bristol was not even present for the big announcement.
A candidate for president wants one thing: as much positive public attention as possible. So if you are Sarah Palin and planning a run for 2012, why do you:
(1) Hold your press conference on Friday, July 3, a dead media day preceding a dead media weekend?
(2) Not invite major republican political figures to the announcement?
(3) Not try to spin what you know is a controversial decision into something positive for your future ambitions? (Such as, "I want to work on behalf of all Americans, and that requires traveling to the other 49 states to listen to their concerns. I could not do so, yet continue to devote my full attention to the problems of Alaskans, who deserve a governor dedicated 100% to their needs.")?
(4) Not give a polished speech (like her convention speech), written by a top-level speech writer who intends to work with her on the 2012 bid?
(5) Refuse to take press questions, to engage them in a coy cat-and-mouse game (a will she or won't she, like Hillary did)?
(6) Plant strong leaks with media figures who can help advance her efforts (note that even slobbering Palin-lover Bill Kristol was caught by surprise)?
No, if you are making an incredibly bold, unpredictable move, you milk as much out of it as possible while holding the spotlight. You work to quash negative speculations before they emerge, because one of your top goals is raising money. You don't want potential donors wondering for weeks or months if you have a screw loose.
You work to own the media cycle, making your surprise announcement when all the top media figures are in the studio, not on vacation; and while Americans are glued to their television sets as usual.
You do not deliver a rambling, nonsensical speech with illogical statements like "It may be tempting and more comfortable to...plod along...but that's the worthless, easy path; that's a quitter's way out," as you annonce that you are quitting;
Or, in essence, "My administration accomplished all these great things, and I have been cleared of every frivolous ethics charge. I am doing a really great job for Alaska, and that is why I am quitting today."
And would a Republican candidate for president say this?
I WILL support others who seek to serve, in or out of office, for the RIGHT reasons, and I don't care what party they're in or no party at all. Inside Alaska - or Outside Alaska.
And what's this about passing the ball?
...she knows exactly when to pass the ball so that the team can WIN. And I'm doing that - keeping our eye on the ball that represents sound priorities - smaller government, energy independence, national security, freedom! And I know when it's time to pass the ball - for victory.
Kobe Bryant did not become the Lakers top star by passing the ball; he made the baskets. (Though he did a good job passing in this year's NBA playoffs.) You typically pass the ball when the other guy has a better shot than you do--not when you think you have the best shot.
Finally, if Sarah Palin plans a 2012 presidential run, she would already have experienced political operatives lined up behind her, including a few who worked with her in the 2008 election and still strongly support her. Would they advise her to quit the governorship mid-term as the best way to further her ambitions? Any political operative would say--as many have today on both sides of the fence--that this action will invite attacks on how she would handle the presidency: Would she quit partway through when things got tough? Or if she were a lame duck?
Sarah Palin is not going to run for president. Something black is oozing down that Alaskan pipeline to nowhere. To get ahead of it, she is resigning, so she can hunker down in her Wasilla home, refuse to answer questions, and hide from the political fallout.
On the other hand, she did give her press conference in the presence of a bunch of loons (swimming in the lake behind her)...this could definitely be preparation for a presidential run in 2012, where she can expect to speak in front of loons often.
UPDATE:
There is some speculation that indictments may be in the works for some Palin misdeeds, explaining her statement about not wanting to waste millions of Alaskan taxpayers dollars.
She would not be the first governor to consider leveraging her resignation as a political chip to avoid prosecution on more serious charges:
Douglas Muzzio, a Manhattan-based political consultant, said: "He's got to resign. He can't weather the impeachment proceedings" and he added that Spitzer could be using his resignation as a "political bargaining chip."