Two things happened yesterday that I think are of note:
1. It was announced that Zelya will meet with Sec. of State Clinton directly. It appears as if that will occur today and the fact that Zelaya is hinting at a July 8 return to Honduras seems to suggest so. We'll know a lot more about what the Obama Administration thinks following that. The US Embassy in Tegucigalpa is opening tomorrow, if security can be guaranteed, but I'm not how that fits into everything.
2. Maybe it's just me, but I thought that Porfirio Lobo coming out for Zelaya's restoration was indeed important. Now, if he's just trying to position himself for the next election, figuring that if Mel carries out his term the end, the Liberal party will be so discredited that it couldn't put up a fight, then that's not such a big deal. But if he's sincere, then it is. Feel free to criticize me here, as I realize it's probably the first rather than the latter.
One more thing I'd like input on - Let's suppose that Zelaya never is restored and the Current Interim Government (that is still Partido Liberal after all) stays all the way to the elections. If the Liberal party somehow wins, after all this, I can't see the International Community viewing that as a totally legit, above board win. That would seem to lead to the scenario where, even after the elections, International Sanctions are not removed, and Honduras is way in the hole, economy-wise.
Yesterday's events are here. I'll try to keep some updates going, especially if Zelaya does meet with the Secretary of State today. Meanwhile, Ginger Thompson sets the table well for the day.
- Just musing, but the last time they met, at the OAS meeting on June 1, apparently He didn't make a great impression. Appears that he insisted on introducing his entire extended family to her after her late night arrival in San Pedro Sula. If I got the details wrong, let me know. Or at least a link.
Update 6:17 am MST- President Obama gets out the gate early, in his commencement address to graduate students at Moscow’s New Economic School, with the following, per ABC: "America supports now the restoration of the democratically-elected President of Honduras, even though he has strongly opposed American policies, "We do so not because we agree with him. We do so because we respect the universal principle that people should choose their own leaders, whether they are leaders we agree with or not. "
Update 7:13 - Just backtracking a bit, I wanted to point an editorial in El Tiempo de Honduras, from the day before the coup, in which the, then Minister of Culture, Rodolfo Pastor Fasquelle, a historian and former university professor, gave his concrete views on what needed to be changed in the 1982 Honduran Constitution. Note that there is never any mention of term-limits, and that debate about the constitutional assembly involved many, broad reforms to make the constitution more participatory. via Raj
Update 7:48 Again backtracking a bit, it has been said that the Sunday June 28 session of Congress produced a unanimous assent to the actions taken that morning. That's not true. Again via Raj, "Thirteen members of the dominant Liberal Party have recently disclaimed their assent, repudiating the coup d'etat. They join the six Congress members from the UD party that did not attend the Sunday June 28 session." So are we now seeing cracks, as the Pepe Lobo statement yesterday seems to indicate. Word is that Elvin Santos, the Liberal Party candidate for President is quietly backing away from the de facto government, perhaps realizing that if he were to win with them having administered, it would be rightly seen as illegitimate.
Update - 8:12 - Granma International is out with an editorial putting Clinton's feet to the fire. It is interesting to see how the very vocal protestations of Cuba and Venezuela will affect the debate going forward. I'm sure Obama would rather see Uribe or Calderon take the lead on this, but..
Update 9:06 - Not much news yet, so I wanted to backtrack again a little bit. I've talked about one of the real reasons for the coup was the lack of trust betwen Zelaya and the Army; Bayardo's interview makes that clear. (Oh, and you can't be Authoritarian without firm control of the Military.) But Raj makes a good point as well: It was Zelaya's economic policies that really put him in hole. Specifically,(1) the petroleum lower-income subsidies that took profit margin away from the distributors. (and if you've been in Honduras, you just have to look at the size of the gas stations to realize that they are big business) (2) Zelaya's actions to reduce interest rates on mortgages from an average of 28% to around 12% hurt the sclerotic, establishment banks who depend on absurdly high rates to survive, and allowed competition from better-run, low-cost new competitors. (3) The minimum wage increase, which pushed establishment business into a tight corner. All of this is connected to that fact that a small amount of privileged families control these businesses, and obviously, were not big fans of Zelaya as President.
Update 9:39 - Closed door meeting with Clinton and Zelaya announced for 1:00 pm. Reported that Clinton will NOT meet with de facto representatives, who are set for a news conference at 3:00.
Update 11:43 - Another crack? According to Diario La Verdad, Jorge Rivera, President of the Corte Suprema de Justicia is proposing amnesty of all charges previously put forward by the Fiscalia.
Update 12:17 _ Yesterday, Oscar Arias of Costa Rica, offered himself up as mediator. Well, today Micheletti has taken him up on it. Reports are that Clinton has indicated that she's onboard with Arias as wellas Zelaya. Parties will be Zelaya and the de facto gevernment, with Arias as mediator. Mel is leaving tomorrow for Costa Rica. A delegation of the de facto government will travel soon to Costa Rica — a reversal from Sunday when he said he would not negotiate until the situation normalized." A senior U.S. official was quoted as saying that one possible compromise would let the ousted president serve out his remaining six months in office with limited and clearly defined powers while Zelaya would drop his aspirations for a constitutional assembly. There is as yet no word as to a possible US role in such talks.
Update 3:01 - Clinton's Press Briefing is here. Aid will be continue to be "paused"; but hoping for talks that produce results to start soon, also "don't want to "prejudge" results. It looks fairly certain from the way she is talking that there will be some sort of agreement soon, perhaps in the way of the anonymous remarks above.
Update 4:25 _ According to La Prensa, negotiations will begin Thursday, and both Zelaya AND Micheletti will be present. Micheleti is "eager to pursue dialogue, but not to negotiate, and certainly not to allow the return of the Ex-President". I don't think that position is going to last long though. He was supposedly the one who got the whole talks thing proposed on Sunday already.
Wrap up - My takeaway from the day is that people, from Honduras, and elsewhere in the region, seem relieved that talks will start Thursday in Costa Rica. Frankly, I don't see the talks lasting all that long; if they go Zelaya's way, we should have an agreement by the weekend; if not, they'll break down rapidly and who knows what happens. Having to make a guess, I'd say the former, and that an agreement returns Zelaya by early next week, with amnesty and promises to forget the whole thing all around. I would also think that either elections are moved up, or the Toma de Possession, or possibly both, in order to placate the anti-Zelaya crowd.
I don't anticipate tomorrow being a busy day, so this will be it for me for a bit.