Cid-Gallup is out a with new poll from Honduras that has a couple of interesting set of numbers. According to the AP:
Forty-six percent said they disagreed with Zelaya's ouster and 41 percent said they approved of it, according to the face-to-face survey of 1,204 Hondurans in the days following the ouster. Another 13 percent declined to answer.
They were about evenly divided on Zelaya himself, with 31 percent saying they had a positive image of him and 32 percent negative. That was close to findings of a similar poll four months ago in which positive views outpaced negative by 4 percentage points.
The pollsters said the survey, conducted in 16 of Honduras' 18 provinces from June 30 to July 4, had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
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In addition, as per Boz
47% of Hondurans believe Zelaya was convoking the constitutional referendum to change the reelection rules and remain in power. 36% believe he was just trying to change the constitution overall.
Note - I realize there are two sets of numbers regarding the approval of Zelaya's ouster (according to Reuters it was 41% agree, 28% disagree, and 31% don't know/won't answer. That large number of 'don't know' makes me think the AP numbers are likely to be the correct ones) There is as of yet, nothing posted on Gallup's site. I am also trying to reach Cid-Honduras directly.
Now, I think poll numbers only matter a certain amount; constitutionally and legally the De Facto government seems to me to be on thin ice, but mobilizing public support behind Zelaya does matter. In the two versions, only 41% agree with the Coup, considering how much money and effort has been spent in Honduras trying to convince the Honduran people that the coup is legit, that seems a very low number, as Greg Weeks notes. Also, the fact that only 47% of Hondurans believe Zelaya was trying to get himself re-elected, (the Nytimes believes this 100%) seems a very low number, given how much that's been hammered on in the overwhelmingly pro-coup media.
Update - Re the discrepancy, Abby Kelleyite makes the observation that the 31% Don't know in Reuters could easily have been a transposition from the 13% that the Ap reports. Leftside says, yeah, that needs to be straightened out, but the big deal is that "we are talking about a total media blackout in a place without alternative sources of information. We are talking about a place where the Chamber of Commerce organized a fund-raising drive for media strategy and communications a few days prior to the coup...
Update - Again Re the discrepancy, Boz points out the original source for the Ap numbers seems to be this VOA interview with Carlos Denton, President of CID-Gallup Centroamérica. Unless there are two sets of numbers, that would seem to be fairly definitive, absent the actual published numbers. the interview, in Spanish, is here:
Update 7/15 - Gallup releases more numbers. Zelaya has approval ratings of 46 - 44 and Micheletti 30 - 49