Skip to main content

Today: Georgia, Hawaii and Idaho

Previous diaries


Summary: GA has 13 representatives, 8 R and 5 D; only GA-12, now D, seems vulnerable
        HI has 2 representatives, both D, both safe
        ID has 2 representatives, 1 D and 1 R, the D (Minnick) is vulnerable

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.

District: GA-01
Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Jack Kingston (R)
VoteView rank 433
First elected  1992
2008 margin 67-33 over Bill Gillespie
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 36-63
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)
Assessment Long shot

District: GA-02
Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Sanford Bishop (D)
VoteView rank 180
First elected  1992
2008 margin 69-31 over Lee Farrell
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)
Assessment Safe

District: GA-03
Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state map
Cook PVI R + 19
Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)
VoteView rank  437
First elected  2004
2008 margin 66-34 over Stephen Camp
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 35-65
Bush margin 2004 70-29
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot

District: GA-04
Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta map
Cook PVI D + 24
Representative Hank Johnson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 45
First elected  2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 28-71
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)
Assessment Safe

District: GA-05
Location Atlanta and some suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 26
Representative John Lewis (D)
VoteView rank  14
First elected  1986
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 80-20
Bush margin 2004 26-74
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)
Assessment Safe

District: GA-06
Location Northern central GA map
Cook PVI R + 19
Representative Tom Price (R)
VoteView rank  417.5
First elected  2004
2008 margin 69-31 over Bill Jones
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 34-65
Bush margin 2004 70-29
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South
Assessment Long shot

District: GA-07
Location Northern central GA map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Linder (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 424.5
First elected  1992
2008 margin 62-38 over Doug Heckman
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 39-60
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Notes on opponents no money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)
Assessment  Long shot

District: GA-08
Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Jim Marshall (D) May run for statewide office; but filed to run for this seat
VoteView rank 237
First elected  2002
2008 margin 57-43 over Rick Goddard
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).
Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don't use that term lightly.  Is it worth it? I don't really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district?  It partly depends on turnout; but, even with nearly  in 3 people being Black, Obama lost here.    Marshall is vulnerable, in any  case

District:  GA-09
Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC map
Cook PVI R + 28
Representative Nathan Deal (R) Retiring
VoteView rank NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 23-75
Bush margin 2004 77-23
Current opponents Several Republicans (see wiki)
Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 4th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Whichever Republican wins will surely win in November

District: GA-10
Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Paul Broun (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 447
First elected  2007
2008 margin 61-39 over Bobby Saxon
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)
Assessment Long shot

District: GA-11
Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Phil Gingrey (R)
VoteView rank 421
First elected  2002
2008 margin 68-32 over Bud Gammon
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)
Obama margin 33-66
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 18th most Republican (per Cook PVI)
Assessment Long shot

District: GA-12
Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative John Barrow (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 238
First elected  2004
2008 margin 66-34 over John Stone
2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 55-40
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Wayne Mosley and Carl Smith, maybe others
Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)
Assessment Vulnerable

District: GA-13
Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative David Scott (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 183
First elected  2002
2008 margin 69-31 over Deborah Honeycutt
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 72-28
Bush margin 2004 40-60
Current opponents Honeycutt again
Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)
Assessment Probably safe

District: HI-01
Location Honolulu and immediate environs map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Neil Abercrombie (D) Retiring
VoteView rank NA
First elected  1990
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 70-28
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents For the Democrats, Ed Case is definitely running, others are considering (see the wiki). For the Repubs, Charles Djou is confirmed.  
Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian
Assessment It's open, so not maybe not completely safe, but looks good.

District: HI-02
Location All of HI except Honolulu map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Mazie Hirono (D)
VoteView rank 45
First elected  2006
2008 margin 76-20 over Roger Evans
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents Roger Evans
Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian
Assessment Safe

District: ID-01
Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Walt Minnick (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 51-49 over Bill Sali
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 36-62
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Bill Sali, who lost in 2008, is running; so are Vaughn Ward, Ken Roberts, and Allen Salzberg.  Others may as well.
Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Our best hope is if Sali wins the primary; this is strongly Republican territory, but Sali is too way out there, even for Idaho.  Probably our most vulnerable seat.

District: ID-02
Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY map
Cook PVI  R + 17
Representative Mike Simpson Not confirmed
VoteView rank 277
First elected  1998
2008 margin 71-20 over Debbie Holmes
2006 margin 62-34
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 36-61
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson's $570K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Long shot

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 03:07 AM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site