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Not a ton of news today, but a few little nuggets of political information greet us on this Tuesday evening.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Follow the Money
Tomorrow is the official deadline for campaigns to show their cards vis-a-vis their second quarter fundraising. Some campaigns turned over their hands early, with impressive results. The most impressive report filed today had to come from CA-03, where Democratic physician Dr. Ami Bera raised $288,000 in this, his first quarter of the campaign. Most impressive of all--only about five grand of this was loans or personal contributions. Dan Lungren, you'll recall, badly underperformed in 2008 against Democrat Bill Durston (49-44). Downstate in CA-45, Democrat Steve Pougnet came in at $201,000. Meanwhile, in WA-08 Suzan Del Bene reports $257,000 for the quarter and $572,000 for the first half of the year. Worth noting in her case, however, is that more than half of that was a personal loan. There were a couple of GOP candidates in the mix today: in IL-11, Iraq War vet Adam Kinzinger raised $111,000, while in the open MI-02 former pro football player Jay Riemersma reported $154,000, but with two-thirds of that coming from a personal loan. If you are interested in checking out your favorite candidate, the Federal Election Commission makes it easy for you.

DE-AL: Is Castle On His Way Out The Door? FEC Report Might Have Clues
One incumbent had a pretty instructive FEC report, as well. Longtime Republican Congressman Mike Castle, of Delaware, raised around $125K, with about 85-90% of that money coming from PACs. Everyone was pretty sure he was either moving up (in the form of a Senate run) or out. This makes "up" pretty hard to believe, although it is still possible that a Senate or House run is in the works for Castle.

PA-Sen: Toomey Finally Gets A Little Bit of NRSC Love
It took them only about two months longer than it did in Florida, but the Senate campaign wing of the GOP (the NRSC) has offered its endorsement of the candidacy of former Congressman and Club For Growth BFF Patrick Toomey. It was just last week when a Philadelphia Daily News article pointed out that some local GOP leaders had reservations about Toomey as a Senate nominee, leading one college professor assessing the race to quip, "You go to war with the army you have."

TX-Gov: Perry Calls Out KBH After Monday's Announcement
As reported here yesterday, Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison announced that she was going to run for Governor against incumbent Republican Rick Perry. Today, Perry publicly cast some doubts, saying that he was trying to avoid a primary and that it was "always a possibility" that KBH would choose to stand down.

VA-Gov: McDonnell Announces His Finances, Recent Take A Fraction of Deeds'
Republican nominee Bob McDonnell has a bit of good news/bad news in the finance reports he filed today. The good news--he still has nearly $5 million on hand heading into the general election. The bad news--he raised $1.8 million in the same time that Creigh Deeds raised well over $3 million. Team McDonnell was quick to point out his CoH edge, and also claimed that Deeds' edge was owed to major outlays by AFSCME, SEIU and the Democratic Governors Association. While it is true that those three groups combined for just over a million dollars of the Deeds' funding, it is instructive to point out that even discounting those three expenditures, Deeds still would have led McDonnell by about half a million dollars.

NJ-Gov: Q Poll Gives Christie Double Digit Lead, Unless You Count Indie Candidate
Depending on how you frame the question, Quinnipiac gives Republican challenger Chris Christie a lead of nine or twelve points, according to a poll released today. The "x-factor" is an Independent candidate, Christopher Daggett, who draws 8% of the vote in a three-way trial heat. With Daggett, Christie leads 47-38-8. Without Daggett, Christie crests 50%, leading 53-41.

Meanwhile, in, it appears as if Governor Corzine has settled on a former reality show star as his nominee for Lieutenant Governor. His name is Randal Pinkett, he is 34 years of age, and he won season four of NBC's The Apprentice.

MA-01: Democratic state Senator Announces Bid...For 2012
Well, this story embodies the maxim that it is never too early to start. Andrea Nuciforo, a former MA state Senator, has announced that he will run for Congress in Massachusett's 1st Congressional 2012. Evidently, Nuciforo is presuming that John Olver, the longtime incumbent here, will retire by 2012, when he will be in his mid-70s. Until then, he has plenty of time to order stationary and fill his rolodex. Only 28 months until Election Day!!

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:02 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

    Recommended by:
    nonnie9999, licorice114

    KBH IS IN.....

    i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

    by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:07:53 PM PDT

  •  Corzine looks like he is (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, SpamNunn, deMemedeMedia

    going to lose.

  •  governor goodhair... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shane Hensinger, Cpt Robespierre

    needs to relax.  maybe a cup of tea will help...

    larger version

    I didn't get Jack from Abramoff...I'm not a Republican!

    by nonnie9999 on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:13:40 PM PDT

  •  Corzine needs to bail. Dick Codey could (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    kick Christie's ass with one hand tied behind his back.  Everyone likes Codey.  Almost no one likes Corzine.   His Goldman Sachs background doesn't help, either.  

    Having credibility when making an argument is the straightest path to persuasion.

    by SpamNunn on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:14:12 PM PDT

  •  Re: VA-Gov - I guess 2/3rd is a "fraction", but (0+ / 0-)

    putting it like that really underplays the threat that Deeds faces.  I think - most of Virginia thinks, I bet - that McDonnell has a better than even chance of beating Deeds.  We can't afford to give the impression that a Dem victory is a given, or even likely.

    •  I think a healthy level of fear is necessary too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      but posturing seems to be the norm in political campaigns...many low information voters will choose the one who they think will win.  On the other hand, many lazy voters will not show up if they think their pick's chances are so strong that an extra vote wouldn't matter.  I think it's a find line.


      has anyone been contacted by a campaign to volunteer or do anything yet?  We could be holding fundraisers around now.  I know it wouldn't be in the millions but it's good retail politics to get a ground game going.

      "The political core of any movement for freedom in the society has to have the political imperative to protect free speech." bell hooks

      by patgdc on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:24:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's Actually About Half, Sui Juris.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      1.8/3.4=53%. And I don't think that most people were expecting Deeds to lead McDonnell by that much.

      Furthermore, I don't think I gave the impression that a Dem victory is a "given." If anything, I was trying to remind folks that a MCDONNELL victory is not a "given".

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:13:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Indeed (0+ / 0-)

        Months ago, I had a long time Democratic activists -- someone I met decades ago in Virginia CD/YC circles - tell me that McDonnell was a shoe-in because "Virginians don't like too much Democrat" (a reference to the consecutive victories of Webb and Warner).

        I was a staffer for one of the statewide Democratic candidates in 1993, and there seemed a general consensus in early Summer of that cycle that the "Clinton Agenda" (specifically the tax increase and "HillaryCare") had doomed the campaigns from the start. I'm sure Virginia isn't the only state where the concessions speeches are written before the campaign gets to full swing, but that kind of pre-defeatism just needs to be knocked down anytime you hear it.

        Deeds outraising McDonnell is a game-changer. Even if McDonnell eventually to regains a fundraising advantage, he will give up retail politics time doing so. At the worst, Deeds can now count on having a level playing field in the air wars. McDonnell needs "air superiority" to win this thing, and this fundraising battle "loss" will cause some GOP check writers to pause before writing that next check. And enough pauses might just allow Deeds to "win" the next report battle.

        Someone please list the GOP candidates in the South in recent memory who've won a statewide race with the smaller warchest.

        I fully expect the answer to be crickets chirping.

        Single Payer and WPA 2.0...NOW!!!

        by Egalitare on Wed Jul 15, 2009 at 03:53:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Randall Pinkett is one smart guy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, emilysdad

    No one should hold the fact that he won The Apprentice against him - he went to some kick-ass schools and has had nothing but success behind him - and hopefully ahead of him.

    The Shane Life - Chock full o' juicy Shane-bits!

    by Shane Hensinger on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:16:00 PM PDT

  •  What do we know about CA-10 [Taucher's seat]? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Don't pay much attention to CA politics, but noticed that VoteVets has come out in support of Anthony
    Woods. Black, openly gay, decorated Vet [Bronze Star], West Pointer [Dean's List], Masters from Harvard, organized rebuilding missions to NOLA...


    Just curious as he sounds great.

    "...fighting the wildfires of my life with squirt guns."

    by deMemedeMedia on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:16:50 PM PDT

  •  If Castle is running for Senate, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    filby, Cpt Robespierre

    then he's unwisely and indirectly taking credit for the stimulus that he voted against:

    The Amtrak Bear Car Shops took time out to celebrate the completion of the first passenger car to be rebuilt with stimulus funds.

    Sen. Thomas Carper, Gov. Jack Markell and U.S. Rep. Mike Castle joined Amtrak CEO Joseph Boardman and employees at the sprawling complex off Route 40 to tour the rebuilt car that was funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

  •  Any news from the CA House special (0+ / 0-)

    election race yet?

  •  MI-07: Walberg wants a rematch (0+ / 0-)

    Tim Walberg (R) wants a rematch with Congressman Mark Schauer (D), who ousted Walberg after one term last fall.

    More at Michigan Liberal.

    "It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God." Jesus (Matthew 19:24)

    by ScottyUrb on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:35:39 PM PDT

    •  Dang It!!! I Was Gonna Include That One!!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The boys over at Swing State had this one today, and I was going to link to them.

      I think this is good news for Schauer. Schauer has already beaten Walberg, and Walberg would probably blast a potentially more electable GOPer in the primary.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:25:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good news for Schauer? Maybe (0+ / 0-)

        Schauer has already beaten Walberg

        True, but let's not forget that Mike Sodrel knocked off Baron Hill in 2004 before Hill returned the favor in 2006.

        Plus, Walberg starts out with good name ID for a challenger. Not to mention the fact that Schauer won by a small margin in a strongly Democratic year. I think this might be one of the tougher seats for us to hold.

        Or maybe not. Who knows which way the winds will blow in 476 days?

        "It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God." Jesus (Matthew 19:24)

        by ScottyUrb on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:32:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  when i see "KBH" i often think (0+ / 0-)


    is that so wrong?

    A bird doesn't sing because it has an answer, it sings because it has a song. -- Maya Angelou

    by birdbrain64 on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 07:47:39 PM PDT

  •  I'd love to see your analysis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    on the Kentucky Senate Race. Looks like the Dems have Mongiardo and Conway, (another unknown ) and the Repubs have Bunning and possibly Trey Grayson.

    If you can squeeze it in, I'd love to read your take.

    •  This Is A Wrap-Up of News of the Day, So... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      When the race makes news, I throw it in. But for you...


      I think this is very much a sleeper race for Democrats. EVERYONE in KY and the NRSC wants Bunning to go, but Bunning doesn't seem to want Bunning to go. My suspicion is that Grayson will get in no matter what. I suspect that if he gets in, Bunning will get out. He's smart enough to not want to end his career getting beat by thirty in a primary.

      For the Dems, Jack Conway had a monster fundraising quarter (he doubled up Trey Grayson, who allegedly blasted Bunning on funding), and he may well be the slight frontrunner. Mongiardo earned a lot of respect from folks because he went after Bunning when it seemed like a fool's errand. Either one would be an exponential improvement, it goes without saying.

      If you asked me to put cold hard cash down on it, I'd put my money on Jack Conway. That said, quite a few people I respect have told me over the years that Grayson would be a tough, tough out in a statewide race.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:23:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Massachusetts in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    The state is likely to lose one (possibly two!) seats after the 2010 Census.  It might be possible that Nuciforo is announcing for a seat that effectively won't exist in 2012.  Since if a seat must be eliminated, it's most likely to redistrict a retiring member's district of existence, no?

    Blessed are those who can laugh at themselves, for they shall always be amused.

    by Land of Enchantment on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:04:24 PM PDT

    •  Excellent Point, L.O.E.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Land of Enchantment

      However, since his district is so geographically defined (Western MA), it will be MUCH tougher to eliminate his district of the Boston districts.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:15:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I hope Castle doesn't run for U.S. Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Steve Singiser

    It would be nice to have an open Senate seat that we don't have to worry about losing.  Beau Biden would be a great Senator.

    I am proud to admit that I come from one of the districts that had the least votes for George W. Bush in the entire country.

    by ThePrometheusMan on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:09:37 PM PDT

  •  MN Democrats dodged a bullet today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    when former rep jim ramstad announced that he will not run for governor as an independent third party candidate.  He is respected by a lot of Minnesotans and would have possibly created another incredibly close race like the last senate contest or possibly lead to another republican plurality victory.  We are now a little bit closer to having a Democrat restoring Minnesota to its former glory.

    •  Dr. C...You Don't Think That Would Have... (0+ / 0-)

      Hurt the Republicans more??

      Having a popular moderate Republican on the ticket, I would think, might have left the GOP nominee with only conservatives, and I would suspect that there aren't enough of them to win a race in Minnesota.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 08:27:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ma;ybe (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        But I know a couple Obama voters that were hoping that ramstad was going to get into the race.  If the choice is between a bachmann republican or a liberal like Rybak they'll go for the liberal.  Throw in an Arnie Carlson republican as a indie then we will end up sweating bullets.  With him out of the race I can only hope that tim penny doesn't decide that he needs to make what ever point he thinks he's making by trying to spoil the race again.

  •  Did no one from the Real World return Corzine's (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


    I guess it's possible that he couldn't find an actual politican in New Jersey who wasn't corrupt.

    Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking

    by tigercourse on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:08:33 PM PDT

  •  Starting early: I've got Nuciforo beat. (0+ / 0-)

    Filed my Declaration of Candidacy for the 2012 US Senate race for Wisconsin before 2006 was out. (That's the Herb Kohl seat. Passing on a challenge to Feingold.)

    Practicing Law without a License is my 3d favorite Crime.

    by ben masel on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:27:53 PM PDT

  •  I don't know NJ, but Corzines sounds desperate. (0+ / 0-)

    Sounds like a McCain-style Hail Mary to me.

  •  Could Corzine's choice motivate black vote? (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry I have to run to the Senate floor to abolish torture.

    by bten on Wed Jul 15, 2009 at 06:50:01 AM PDT

  •  CD 3 California (0+ / 0-)

    Very impressive numbers for Bera. This has to give his potential rivals pause. Looking forward to the other rpts later today.

    •  Hold on... (0+ / 0-)

      Check who's doing the contributions. The majority of donations come from family members who maxed out. The REAL question is, can he sustain those numbers next quarter?

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