President Obama's Augustine Commission review of NASA's future space architecture and the alternatives was set up to be a debate between NASA's Ares 1 and Ares V concept vs. alternate scenarios including military launch vehicles and the popular DIRECT concept. The DIRECT concept utilizes the Space Shuttle's solid rocket boosters but places the Orion CEV (Crew Exploratory Vehicle) and additional EDS (Earth Departure Stages) on top of a modified External Tank (ET). The Shuttle engines are replaced by cheaper engines placed underneath the External Tank.
However, NASA's Space Shuttle Program manager, John Shannon, pulled out a surprise at the meeting plus a rather exciting video when he resurrected another version of the Shuttle-C concept, this time including a manned heavy lift vehicle designed to carry humans back to the Moon for just $6.6 billion in launch vehicle development cost.
The Side-mount shuttle video
Originally, Shannon argued that a single Shuttle-Derived Heavy Launch Vehicle (SDHLV) would only be able to place 28 tonnes into lunar orbit. However, an Engineering Analysis Team (EAT) of 16 members, concluded that up to 48 tonnes of net weight could be placed into lunar orbit with just one launch. That's plenty enough to transport an Altair lunar lander into lunar orbit.
The addition of an on board second stage, the SDHLV should be capable of transporting a net payload of 99 metric tons into low Earth orbit. The addition of an EDS (Earth Departure Stage) should be able to place 48 metric tons into lunar orbit. So in theory, just one SDHLV should be able to launch the 25 tonne Orion space craft and a 23 metric ton lunar lander (heavier than the heaviest landing mass for the Apollo lunar module (16.5 metric tons) into lunar orbit. NASA, however, wants to develop the 46 metric ton Altair lunar lander which should be capable of carry 4 astronauts to the lunar surface. So the SDHLV should be capable of transporting the Altair to lunar orbit. Since the Orion space craft will weigh only 25 metric tons, a smaller EDS stage may be required which might allow the Orion space craft to supply an L1 space station near the Moon.
John Shannon's Side-mount shuttle presentation at the Augustine commission.
But how safe would a manned Orion-SDHLV be?
There has never been a fatal malfunction of the space shuttle main engines in 127 manned flights (28 years) and no solid rocket booster malfunctions since the boosters were modified after the the 1986 Challenger accident which killed 7 astronauts (102 consecutive successful flights over 21 years since that fatal accident). The second fatal Shuttle accident (Columbia 2003) is believed to be related to falling foam from the external tank damaging some of the fragile thermal tiles on the shuttle wing. Fortunately, the Orion vehicle won't any thermal tiles and the heat shield will be sandwiched between the command module and service modules which will both be shrouded inside the Side-mount payload bay. The manned capsule will also be be equipped with a Launch Abort System (LAS) which should make the manned vehicle even safer. While there has been some concern about having the LAS in a side-mount position, John Shannon doesn't seem to believe that reconfiguring the LAS for a Side-mount vehicle should be too difficult. But even without a Launch Abort System (LAS) the manned Orion would be significantly safer than the current Space Shuttle. So the current basic shuttle launch infrastructure appears to be extremely safe and reliable. And with a LAS, it should be even safer for a manned crew. The fact that an unmanned cargo launch system will also be used should also enhance safety.
Personally, I'd like to see it increased to Apollo levels at around $30 billion annually in today's dollars instead of under $20 billion. But I think its pretty clear that the Obama administration is not going to significantly increase the NASA budget during a period of economic problems and huge Federal deficits. So assuming that the NASA budget is going to be pretty much frozen over the next 5 to 7 years, how do we fund the Space Shuttle replacement and the development of a heavy lift vehicle for a Moon base program?
NASA intends to commit $9.5 billion to the development of the Ares 1 launch system from 2010 to 2014. Another $9 billion is committed for the development of the Orion CEV over that same period. Unfortunately, no serious money is currently budgeted for the development for a heavy lift vehicle or lunar landing vehicle (Altair).
Shannon mentioned that earlier studies suggest that both the crew launch vehicle and heavy lift vehicle could be developed for a relatively meager 6.6 billion. The DIRECT concept is thought to cost about $15 billion for the launch infrastructure. The Side-mount concept could allow NASA some extra money to spend nearly $3 billion to fund the Altair lunar lander from 2010 until 2014. That's probably not enough, however to develop the Altair lunar lander by the time the Side-mount HLV is ready to transport payloads to lunar orbit.
However, NASA is contemplating ending its participation in the ISS program in 2016, yet it still plans to spend $12.4 billion from 2010 to 2014 on the ISS. Why?
In my opinion, NASA should terminate its participation in the ISS program the same year that it terminates the space shuttle program (2010). That would save NASA an additional $10 billion dollars that could be used to fund and accelerate the development of the Altair lunar lander. This could enable the US to return to the Moon by 2015 or 2016 instead of 2018 or 2020 with the Ares scenario. Of course in order for the the Ares project to achieve its goals would require a significant annual increase in the NASA budget. Alternatively, NASA could delay funding for the Altair vehicle for 5 years for those who just love the thrilling and exciting ISS (mission to nowhere) program! That would get us back to the Moon in 2020 or 2021 instead of 2015 or 2016.
President Obama should fully endorse NASA's Side-mount concept, in my opinion, while committing the US to return to the lunar surface by 2016 (possibly the last full year of a second term for the Obama administration) in order to begin setting up a permanently manned lunar facility. The establishment of a permanent human presence on another world would be one of the most important moments in the history of the human species. And President Obama could be the man that future historians will credit for making it happen!
Once the Side-mount, Orion, and Altair vehicles are on line then development money could be shifted to funding the manned lunar and cargo launches for the development of a lunar base. Hopefully, their should be enough funds in the NASA budget at that time to also finance simple Skylab-like space stations that could be placed at Leo and L1. Such orbital habitats could be essential for any future interplanetary journey to Mars or its moons while the lunar base should help us to develop infrastructures essential for developing future bases on Mars.
References:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/...
http://www.nasa.gov/...
http://www.nasa.gov/...
http://newpapyrusmagazine.blogspot.c...