Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/13-7/16/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (7/06-7/09/2009 results in parentheses):
|PRESIDENT OBAMA||62 (61)||35 (34)||0|
|PELOSI:||34 (33)||56 (57)||+2|
|REID:||32 (31)||56 (55)||0|
|McCONNELL:||21 (22)||62 (61)||-2|
|BOEHNER:||15 (16)||62 (62)||-1|
|CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:||42 (43)||51 (50)||-2|
|CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:||12 (12)||72 (71)||-1|
|DEMOCRATIC PARTY:||48 (49)||46 (45)||-2|
|REPUBLICAN PARTY:||21 (22)||73 (72)||-2|
Over the past few weeks, a trend has established itself in our weekly Daily Kos/Research 2000 "State of the Nation" Tracking Poll. That trend is a consistent slide in the percentage of Americans convinced the country is on the right track, as well as an incremental softening of the numbers for the political class.
Barack Obama's numbers held steady this week, but remember that he took the biggest hit LAST week, so taken over a multi-week period, he experiences the same dip that everyone else experiences. Nancy Pelosi is the only political figure who sees a slight bump in her numbers. While one might think this is political vindication for the whole CIA episode, the more likely explanation is that this is a slight amount of noise, counteracting last week's two-point dip.
The right track/wrong track numbers have been diverging for the past month, and this week continues the trend. This week, for the first time in several weeks, a majority of voters (51%) say the country is on the wrong track, with only 42% saying things are on the right track.
This slide in voter optimism is not just limited to our Daily Kos tracking poll. The dip was even more pronounced in the Diageo/Hotline poll, where in one month, the right track figures have slid from 45% to just 31%, while the wrong track figures have jumped from 43% to 55%. Other pollsters have seen similar numbers.
That growing sense of voter discontent has had a real effect on the standing of the majority party, as support for the Democratic Party is now nearing parity (48/46), the lowest level of favorability for the party thus far in 2009. The inability of the Republican Party to formulate a winning message, however, has meant that they have been unable to make any gains at the expense of the Democratic Party. As the support for the Democrats has receded, the GOP has also seen its numbers dip precipitously:
The Republican Party has also apparently failed to make growing discontent with the state of the nation count where it matters most: at the virtual ballot box. Looking ahead to 2010, voters still support the Democratic Party over the GOP by double digits, a figure which has been consistent since we started polling on the question a few months ago.
Would you like to see more Republicans or Democrats elected to Congress in 2010? (last week in parentheses)
Democrats 42 (41)
Republicans 28 (28)
Not Sure 30 (31)