Julian Zelizer Professor of History and Public Affairs, Princeton:
Many Democrats must be wondering--where are Senators Baucus, Reid, Conrad and Speaker Pelosi, Representative Waxman and the now famous Blue Dog Democrats? This is the White House beer summit the president needs to be having. Going into August, Democrats need to find a way to bridge their differences on health care. There is evidence that even the deals of the past week are much more fragile than has been suggested. The president needs to devote some time to this kind of discussion group with members of his own party, and soon.
Paul Krugman:
At a recent town hall meeting, a man stood up and told Representative Bob Inglis to "keep your government hands off my Medicare." The congressman, a Republican from South Carolina, tried to explain that Medicare is already a government program — but the voter, Mr. Inglis said, "wasn’t having any of it."
It’s a funny story — but it illustrates the extent to which health reform must climb a wall of misinformation. It’s not just that many Americans don’t understand what President Obama is proposing; many people don’t understand the way American health care works right now.
It's made funnier by the realization that 29% of Americans are on government insurance.
Pew Poll:
Although the public has a more negative than positive general reaction to the health care proposals being debated on Capitol Hill, there is broad support for many of the core elements of the legislation currently before Congress. Nearly two-in-three (65%) favor requiring that all Americans have health insurance, with the government aiding those who cannot afford it. Nearly as many (61%) favor requiring employers who do not provide insurance to pay into a government health care fund. And there is broad support (79%) for prohibiting insurance companies from denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions.
Of course, the issue is that no one can agree on how to pay for it.
But, critically, increased attention to the health care legislation among independents is associated with more opposition, not more support. Independents who have heard a lot about the bills oppose them by a 70% to 27% margin. Independents who have heard little or nothing are divided evenly (38% favor, 35% oppose). Overall, the more attentive independents have a lot more in common with Republicans than with Democrats when it comes to the current legislation in Congress, which tips the overall public balance of opinion in the direction of opposition.
Overall, Obama's approval has dropped 9 points to 54. As has been commented on before, Obama is getting the people who voted for him, and losing the people who didn't vote for him - especially 30-49 year olds (check out the 18-29 year olds.) But the optimism for the future is still there and Obama still has a reserve of good will. The country just wants to see better economic numbers and agreement on a health plan. More on this later today.
Joe Klein:
One of the most difficult things to do in a democracy is react to a problem that is real, but not immediately threatening. Obama is trying to do this in two monster areas, health care and climate change. "He's killing me," says Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, referring to the hordes of special-interest groups that have camped on her doorstep and clogged her phone lines. Stabenow is smiling as she says it. She supports the broad thrust of Obama's initiatives. "But you can't believe all the groups that want to make their case. There are the doctors, the nurses, the cancer society," she continues, raising the specter of a conga line of disease groups bending her ear. "All of them have legitimate concerns. And that's just health care."
Rep. Jared Polis, CO-02:
I am happy to say that significant progress has been made on making sure that health care reform is good for small business and good for the economy. Since I recently raised the issue of the impact of the reforms on small business, I have met withPresident Obama, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, Speaker Pelosi and House leadership several times. They were very responsive to my concerns and assured me that every step will be taken to equitably pay for health care reform.
Nate Silver:
Instead of Grassley and Enzi, Baucus should be sitting in a room with Ben Nelson and Mary Landireu -- and maybe Olympia Snowe. Those are the swing votes -- the pressure points -- the people with whom there's actually something to be negotiated. If Grassley wants to come in and snack on beef jerky and spitball a few ideas, then sure -- door's always open. But I don't know what good he's doing the Democrats by being given so leverage over the process.
Nate will be joining me at Netroots Nation for a panel on how to get the most out of polling.
Another Netroots Nation panel will feature mcjoan and David Waldman:
Outside Getting In: Tying the Progressive Movement to Congress for Policymaking
Sat, 08/15/2009 - 3:00pm, Hall B
Due to vacation and travel, Abbreviated Pundit may not appear daily for the next two weeks. It will resume as a daily feature at the conclusion of Netroots Nation.