In any sporting contest, you'll often hear the announcers talking about a play, or series of plays that changed the momentum of the game and reversed a previously foregone conclusion. Well, I believe that the momentum for health care reform has shifted. Join me below and I'll tell you why.
During the last quarter (ending June 30), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation sold off nearly all of it's health care stock and holdings in pharmaceutical companies. (In case you're not aware, the Bill Gates Foundation is the largest private philanthropic organization and has a net worth in the billions). This is huge news. Stocks related to the health care industry earn large and regular profits for their owners, and to divest yourself of them completely signals a radical change in circumstances.
The stock sold includes:
2.5 million shares of Johnson & Johnson
14.9 million shares of Schering-Plough Corp
8.1 million shares in Merck & Co.
3.7 million shares in Wyeth.
Johnson & Johnson provide a large assortment of health care related products, especially diagnostic equipment and orthopedic type equipment. They also provide back-end billing systems for hospitals, clinics, and health care insurers.
Schering-Plough Corp has just announced that they plan on merging with Merck. Both of them are pharmaceutical manufacturers with popular medications on the market. (My wife uses two medications made by Merck--Maxalt for migraines, and Advair for asthma). Wyeth is another big pharma company (they make Advil, as well as Effexor--another medication my wife takes).
This is big news. I don't know what it means, but here's a couple of possibilities.
- Bill Gates decided to take a moral stand by not supporting these companies any longer. Now I'm not a Bill Gates hater, but I kinda doubt that this is what's happening here. Why now and not 1 year ago?
- The company's stocks are slipping. I don't think this is it. Wyeth stocks took a nose dive in Febuary, but are now at a six month high. NYSE: WYE Same story for Merck NYSE: MRK. Johnson & Johnson have held pretty steady--a brief dip in the Febuary, but now they're back to their current standings. Johnson & Johnson. All of these show a trend of a sharp decline in the early spring and then a rebound to either a better performance or a steady one.
- The Foundation can see the writing on the wall. Despite the opposition to real health care reform, and the loud screaming from opponents of reform, this thing will happen. When it does, expect the insane profits of previous years to be impacted negatively, and expect the stock prices of these portfolios to decline. The Bill Gates Foundation may just be getting out while the getting's good.
Links:
Johnson & Johnson
Merck & Co
Wyeth
Schering-Plough
Bill Gates dumps health care stocks
That's reason one.
Reason number two is the extremely successful town hall that President Obama held in Montana. Montana isn't exactly a bastion of progressive thought--but most of the questions asked were supportive of health care reforms. Those that were negative were quickly disarmed by the President. The coverage of that town hall has been mostly positive by the press. This is a stark contrast to the coverage of other town halls across the country. Democrats in other parts of the country are also having very successful town halls, where they're able to get the right information out. Other than the initial storm of protests, the protests haven't been as vocal or as prominent. In other words, we learned from their tactics, adapted them, and countered.
And, speaking of the protesters, it seems to me that they moved too soon. They got a great deal of coverage last week, but the media is starting to catch on (read nandssmith's recommended diary). People are starting to realize that these protesters aren't interested in dialog or compromise, and that their protests have very little to do with actual health care. On purely anecdoctal evidence it seems that Republicans are not having town halls as often as are Democrats, which means that the opponents of health care are losing in the information wars.
So what can we do to help?
Go to your town halls. Talk to your Congresscritters. Make calls. Donate to the the organizations that are fighting this. Read the diaries by slinkerwink and nyceve. Pay attention to the health care diaries. Talk to your friends. Don't get depressed by the Chicken Littles.
This fight isn't over by a long shot. We've got the massive organizing machine of OFA getting organized on this fight. We've got President Obama dong a whistlestop tour of battleground states. Democracy For America is getting involved. The unions have always been fighting for health care reform but now some of the largest are telling the wavering Democrats that if they don't support real health care reform they won't get any union support at election time.
Governor Dean is telling Democrats that if they oppose this they can expect to be primaried. The screamers are now hoarse, and the adults can now move forward. The momentum is shifting.
Update 1:
User tapestry wondered what
Warren Buffet is doing or has done regarding stock in such companies
Apparently nothing. In his filings for the last quarter his holdings in health care industries remained at very nearly the same levels as the previous quarter.
Warren Buffett's energy stocks
Update 2: Rec list? Aw shucks. We just can't let ourselves get discouraged. Steady and firm will win this race--we want to be the tortoise, not the hare.
Update 3: Apparently Buffett is dumping his energy stocks and has purchased 4 million shares of Johnson & Johnson. Buffet buys Johnson & Johnson shares (Link courtesy of mbc in the comments).