Here we are in 2009 on the one hand celebrating a historic Democratic Presidency and having supermajorities in Congress including the magical 60 seat US Senate. On the other hand we are struggling to pass healthcare and energy reform legislation despite such numbers. Well it's better to be in this position than the position the GOP is in but after 2010 we could be singing the blues.
The combination of the struggling US economy, the current healthcare fight and a fired up right wing is playing havok on President Obama's approvals and is giving the GOP an early shot in the arm heading into the 2009 - 2010 election cycle.
Here is how I see the US Senate races shaping up at this point and what I believe will be the determinent of Democrat's fortune in these races next year. I'll do an overview of the US House at a later date.
Endangered Democratic Seats
Deleware: Deleware Senator Ted Kaufman is retiring after taking over for Joe Biden. GOP Rep. Mike Castle is considering running and if he does he is the favorite to win this race over current Deleware Attorney General Beau Biden who is considering running for his father's old seat. Castle leads Biden 55% to 34% in the latest polls.
Connecticut: Sen. Chris Dodd may be a progressive favorite and a great Senator but the people of Connecticut seem ready to fire him after 30 years of service. He is struggling with multiple ethics scandals which have tattered his image in the state. Former GOP Rep. Rob Simmons currently is running and leads Dodd 48% to 39% in the lastest poll.
Nevada: Sen. Harry Reid is one of the least liked figures in Nevada and his status as a national DEM leader makes him a very big target for the GOP. He currently doesn't have a major GOP opponent and has stockpiled a whopping 7.3 million in reelection funds. He will need every bit of that money because om in poll after poll he trails even third rate GOP opponents.
Pennsylvania: New DEM Senator Arlen Specter and DEM Rep. Joe Sestack will battle to the death in next years party primary which leaves former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey as the beneficiary. He could become Pennsylvania new Rick Santorum
Colorado: DEM Governor Bill Ritter made a puzzling pick in choosing unknown Michael Bennet to suceed Senator Ken Salazar. Bennet has struggled to gain traction and currently sports a negative favorable rating of 31% to 38%. He even trails failed 2006 GOP Governor nominee Bob Beauprez 41% to 38% in the latest poll and only slightly leads 3rd tier GOP opponents.
Illinois: DEM State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulous may be the new "sexy Alexi" but there is nothing sexy about his trailing GOP Rep. Mark Kirk 41% to 38% in heavily Democratic Illinois.
Possible Endangered DEM Seats
Arkansas: DEM Senator Blanche Lincoln never wins by overwhelming margins and currently sports an anemic 49% to 40% favorable rating. Lucky for her her likely opponents are not top tier. Unlucky for her she will have to compete in a state Obama lost massively in 2008.
North Dakota: GOP Governor John Hoeven is seriously considering challenging longtime DEM Senator Byron Dorgan. The latest (GOP) poll in the state has Hoeven crushing Dorgan 53% to 36%. This race goes to top of list if Hoeven runs.
This is a seriously dangerous situation that DEMS could be staring at in 2010....having 8 Senate seats in serious risk being the party in power. If healthcare reform fails and the economy doesn't pick up then a repeat of 1994's dismal performance could very well be in the offering.
Luckily for the DEMS many GOP incumbents are bailing in 2010 leaving a bevy of open US Senate seats for DEMS to contest.
Endangered GOP Seats
New Hampshire: New Hampshire is leaning heavily D now and with Sen. Judd Gregg retiring DEMS have a great chance to pick up this seats. DEM Rep. Paul Hodes is the very slight favorite against former GOP State Sttorney General Kelly Ayotte.
Missouri: DEM Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is the early leader against GOP Rep. Roy Blunt in what promises to be a real barnburner of a race to replace outgoing GOP Senator Kit Bond.
Kentucky: The DEMS have a very competitive primary between state Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo for the right to face GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson for right to succeed retiring GOP Senator Jim Bunning.
Ohio: The DEMS have a very competitive primary race between state Lt. Gov Lee Fischer and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. The winner will face former GOP Rep. Rob Portman to replace GOP Senator George Voinovich.
North Carolina: GOP Senator Richard Burr suffers from low approvals and DEMS are searching for a strong opponent to take advantage.
Potential Endangered GOP Seats
Texas: Sen. Kay bailey Hutchinson is resigning early to run for Texas Governor against Rick Perry. The all party special Senate election would likely be held in May 2010 to choose her permenant successor. The DEMS have several strong candidates already running in Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp who would be strong contenders to win the seat. The GOP field would be very large.
Louisiana: Diapers Vitter is up for re-election and is facing a potentially strong challenge from DEM US Rep. Charlie Melancon. Vitter would be slightly favored as Louisiana has been tilting strongly GOP as of late.
2010 has the potential to have many hard fought races on both sides. DEMS have had the upper hand for two cycles but they are now the party in power with responsibility for the state of the nation for better or worse. That makes the above vulnerable seats that much more risky.
DEMS have to hope the stimulus is having the desired effects on the economy and they had better get healthcare done. Their prospects in 2010 truly depend on it.