Several days ago or so, a U.S. rep was qouted that President Obama said he was willing to be a one term president over health care reform. The truth of the matter is that if health reform is passed without a public option, he will be a one term president. Despite want the polls or the 24hr news channels are saying, Americas respect a president who is a leader and willing to make tough choices and decisions. If he does, Obama will be guarenteed another four years and the GOP will be ineffectual for a generation, never able to control the majority in congress for that time.
How can I make such a bold prediction? As a historian, recent events suggested to me that the GOP would be unwilling and unable to mount any significant opposition. (That is not to say they will be easy to defeat but the Netroots has shown itself capable of fighting back.) The GOP since January has been an impotent, uninspiring party incapable of being anything but the party of no. Their supposed presidential candidates has stumbled and fumbled over themselves and shown they're unable to lead. No one person has emerged as a credible opponent. Faux News was left to astroturf events to try to motivate the base, those that approved of W 's job performance at the end of his term. We saw that the Cons could only motivate Teabaggers, birthers, and extremists. They've even tried eliminationist and successionist talk and none of it was causing more than a blip in movement in the polls.
Only recently have the GOP and their base regained focus and direction because of the lies and exaggeration due to the health care debate. With this they've been able to pull in some gullible and naive independents into their "outrage". It is these people that Obama is trying to appease as these are the swing voters. These are the people that he is trying to show he is maintaining his pledge of bipartisanship. As committed progressives and liberals we understand that this is a fool errand but because those people swing elections, he sees them as vital to this endeavor.
This may account for a possible delay in reform either before or after the next recess but definately before the end of the year. This, I believe, will give an indication to independents that he listened to their concerns and is willing to slow down. What Obama needs to do, is after a delay, show leadership and push reform through with a public option. Independents will respect his leadership just like they respected FDR, Eisenhower, and (only in percepation) Regan. The GOP will be rendered ineffectual and the only thing left for them to huff and puff about is "Tax and Spend," Defecits, Grandkids, etc. They will be as rudderless and as chaotic as these last six months (jan-july 2009) indicated. Passing Comprehensive Immigration reform, and cap & trade, eliminating DOMA and DADT, will all be easier, still a challenge but easier.
In the alternative, if Obama allows for reform without a public option, all other legislation he tries to pass will be improbable. The right will realize that with a little astroturf pressure, the Dems will cave. Independents will see Obama and the Dems as weak and swing to the GOP. W for all his faults was respected by independents because he made decisions, damn who cares and consequences. Grassley will be seen as a possible presidential candidate and the GOP will pound the nail in the coffin by attempting to pass an odious health reform bill with tax cuts, deregulations, and all types of poison pill amendments that the Dems will have no choice but to vote against.
The unfortunate thing is that as liberals, we have to suffer through the August recess. Like the two weeks before the Super Bowl, we are left to consider what if scenarios, speculations, trial ballons, etc. Much is thankfully being done in the Netroots to support Dems who will stick with us and admonish those who oppose this. Additional we must continue to tell the President that we have his back but don't f*** it up.
If he does pass reform with a public option, in the future we will see the GOP having to publicly state their support for the new plan (as is the case with the conservative party in the UK) and maybe in a decade we can press for single payer. From then on, for a generation, at least like those who grew up under FDR, the Democrats will control Congress and maybe the white house and thus ending this TheoCon, NeoCon, wingnut GOP vampire