We all know that Independents are moderates and centrists, right? Democrats are liberals, Republicans are conservatives, and Independents are smack-dab-in-the-middle moderates, right?
So that means, if pollsters find Obama's popularity declining among those priceless Independents, Obama is losing the moderates, right? All that outrage on the TV from the birthers and opponents of "government-run" health care must really be taking its toll on the centrists, eh? Obama better move to the right to keep those independents in his camp, right?
But what if a whole bunch of this week's Independents were liberal Democrats two weeks ago? What if some liberal Democrats are so pissed off with Obama that they're refusing to call themselves Democrats?
Might that mean that the polls are discovering just one trend: A trend in which both Democrats and
"Independents" are expressing disfavor with Obama for the same basic reason: he's faltering on his health care promises.
Do you suppose the White House has any clue about exactly who is pissed off with Obama? Do you suppose the White House thinks it must become even more conservative in order to bolster its poll numbers?
As I wrote a week ago, here's my theory of what's happening in the polls:
-- Some liberals who were Democrats a few weeks or months ago are calling themselves independents because they're so pissed off at Obama for failing to press his agenda forward they can't call themselves Democrats any more.
-- These Independents (former Democrats) are now telling pollsters they disapprove of Obama.
-- But the polls don't reveal that these independents are former Democrats.
-- So the pollsters falsely interpret their data to opine that Independents (aka Centrists) are losing their patience with Obama.
-- The misinterpretation gets replayed at the White House, driving Obama further to the right to attempt appeasement of these misunderstood Independents.
-- Instead, what may be more true is this: Obama is mainly losing the approval of liberals -- both Democratic liberals and Independent liberals.
This week's Kos poll found a massive decline in Obama's favorability ratings. No doubt, the media and the right wing are claiming victory for their monthlong assault on common sense and Obama's popularity.
But this looks like a self-inflicted wound to most of us here. I just think the self-inflicted nature of the wound is even greater than meets the eye: I think Obama is not only pissing off liberal Democrats, he's alienating Democrats into not only declaring themselves dissatisfied with him, but they're also refusing to call themselves Democrats because of his pitiful performance on health care reform.
Here's more from last week's post:
Remember Kos' poll last week that showed independents watch Fox even less than Democrats do? I don't think these people are likely to be swayed by the nutjobs drawing Hitler mustaches on Obama.
And yet, most of the political world, including the White House, probably, is getting it wrong: They're assuming that independents are "centrists" and that these "centrists" are losing their approval of Obama.
I suspect that instead, the independents are skewing toward the liberal end of the spectrum, and more so with each passing day as Democrats abandon their party out of intense frustration. And so Obama's downward pitched approval ratings from Democrats and Independents are revealing one single phenomenon: Liberals are pissed off with Obama not because they're buying the bullshit from Fox News but because they're liberals, and they believe that Obama is failing them.
So take my poll below. Last week, 21 percent said they'd changed to Independent. It's not scientific, of course, but it's happening. Right?