A brief word to all the Democrats sitting on the fence on the public option: don't even start talking about declining poll numbers as the reason you won't support a public option.
As generic Democratic approval falls to near parity with that of the GOP, and a number of right-leaning polls show tepid support for Democrats and for Democratic healthcare plans, many of our representatives and Senators will cite lack of public support for key reforms, most importantly the public option, as the reason for their caving to GOP demands.
I've been pushing carrots, not sticks for a while now. But the first Democratic Congressperson I discover to use lack of public support as their prime excuse not to pass a public option will be the recipient of a healthy round of stick beatings. If it were about the poll numbers, Dems could have passed real reform when they had resounding public support.
When the healthcare debate first began roiling in earnest on Capitol Hill, support for a public option was at a resounding 72% of Americans, including fully half of GOP voters. It's important to remember in particular this result from the New York Times poll in June:
... Half of those questioned said they thought government would be better at providing medical coverage than private insurers, up from 30 percent in polls conducted in 2007. Nearly 60 percent said Washington would have more success in holding down costs, up from 47 percent.
Sixty-four percent said they thought the federal government should guarantee coverage, a figure that has stayed steady all decade. Nearly 6 in 10 said they would be willing to pay higher taxes to make sure that all were insured, with 4 in 10 willing to pay as much as $500 more a year.
Remember also that Democrats dominated the generic ballot in late June as well.
Since that time, a steady stream of right-wing lies and delusional fantasies about Democratic proposals have led to decreases in support for the public option in some quarters, particularly among Seniors currently on the single-payer plan known as Medicare, who are worried that their amazingly effective socialist government-run program might somehow be compromised by an extension of the same courtesy to those unlucky enough to be under 65 years of age. Still, it is important to note that just over a week ago another poll showed an overwhelming 77% approval for the public option.
More important to congressional Democratic poll-watchers, however, is the fact that approval for Democrats in general has declined due to doubts among independents, and to the depression of the Democratic base as a result of the failure to pass adequate healthcare reform.
But keep in mind: Democrats ALWAYS had the option of going solo on healthcare, including when the polls all showed strong support. Lack of support will always be nothing more than an excuse for the real reason to back away from a public option: fear of insurance industry dollars used to fund their opponents:
The goal of keeping stakeholders at the table was threefold:
1. Keep them from advertising against the White House plan
2. Keep them from torpedoing vulnerable Democrats in 2010 so there isn't a repeat of 1994
3. Keep their money out of GOP coffers
You can see the fingerprints in the deals that they made: the $150 million PhRMA was spending on ads for health care reform, the $2.5 million they spent helping vulnerable freshmen, and the total fury that Boehner has unleashed on PhRMA and other stakeholders for making deals with the White House.
People make a mistake when they think the battle for health care reform is about ideology, because it's not. It's about who controls K Street and the cash that flows from it, which could fund a 2010 GOP resurgenece -- or not.
But lobbying money from the insurance and pharmaceutical industries don't control election results. They matter, but they aren't everything. Ultimately, real accomplishments that help people are what matters.
The decreases we have seen in public support for Democrats will wholly evaporate once real reform is passed, and the American people (independents and seniors in particular) are able to see that the lies about the public option were just that: lies. Just as the GOP attacks on Medicare and Social Security were also lies constructed from whole cloth, and did nothing to stop them from becoming among the most beloved programs in America.
Democratic approval numbers were high when the healthcare debate began. Support for the public option began strong and, according to most polls, remains strong. The current drop in Democratic approval is predicated on doubts, lies, and deflation of the Democratic base--all of which will be washed away the day President Obama signs the public option into law. And there's no reason Democrats cannot make that happen entirely without GOP support.
The only way Democrats can truly fail at this point is to pass a bill that falls short of the reforms we need by failing to pass a public option. That will demoralize the base, and the problems associated with mandates absent a public option will infuriate many voters, and will seem to legitimize and make true GOP lies and distortions that are currently false.
If you're interested in increasing your poll numbers, pass the public option. It'll be all sticks and no carrots for any Democrats who attempt to use poll results as cover for their fear of the insurance lobby's dollars.