There's been a lot of dialogue here over what President Obama should/must say on Wednesday when he addresses the Congress, as well as the nation, on healthcare reform. I wanted to throw my two cents in on what I think he will say, why I think he'll say it, and where I think we'll be going. Now, as anyone can see from my profile, I'm sure, I'm not by any means a profilic diarist... I don't know how to really link or do blockquotes or anything, so I hope you'll all bear with me.
There has been many calls here for President Obama to come out in favor of a public option on Wednesday and basically either ask for an up or down vote, or threaten a veto if a bill doesn't include one. I don't think either of those are going to happen, because I don't think it plays into what the President is attempting to do... make the Republicants appear to be, as they do so well, the party of "No".
We've seen a lot of typical Republicant behavior over the summer months...death panels, pulling the plug on granny... all of their usual scare tactics that Democrats who follow politics to a certain degree are used to. But there are people out there, independents and disenchanted Republicans and even some new voters, who didn't really start paying attention to the nastiness of the Republicant party until last year. There they saw accusations of socialism and terrorist hang outs, threats against Obama... really nasty nasty stuff. And I think it stuck. I think your rational person out there, who was either new to politics or new to really understanding the Republicant playbook, had these tactics seered into their minds, changing their view of the Republicant party, at least slightly.
So how does that play into Health Care reform? Well, after the stimulus package, we saw Republicants braying about the lack of bipartisanship from Obama and the Congress... despite the fact that the 40% of stimulus money that went to tax relief were largely based on Republicant ideas... they could not give Obama credit for including what they wanted in the stimulus bill... they had to be the party of No. So for Health Care, Obama and the Democrats are going a different route.
We've all been stymed by the negotiations that have dragged on in the Finance Committee in the Senate, wondering how someone like Max Baucus, who promoted a public option last November, could be threatening to leave it out of a committee bill under the guise of bipartisanship. I don't think this is the case... I think the Finance committee's purpose is to display to the American people that, yes, ok, maybe during the stimulus bill we didn't have OBVIOUS attempts at bipartanship... but this time, we will. We'll negotiate with the Republicants honestly, we'll listen to their honest concerns and incorporate them in this plan.
Of course, the Republicants are fighting every step of the way. Grassley, Enzi and Snowe are under huge pressure not to accept ANY deal, because the Republicant leadership want to give President Obama his waterloo. They feel like they have him over the ropes, because President Obama has allowed them to feel that way... and if there's one thing we who follow the Republicant playbook have learned over the years... there's no line Republicants won't cross when they think they have a win coming. So President Obama says, "let them do their town halls, let them come to ours, let them say no and no over and over again. The more they do it, the more the American people will see them for what they really are."
There was an excellent diary here yesterday about WHY President Obama would decide to speak to the Congress instead of speaking to the American public directly from say the Oval Office. I think this is going to be his last "attempt" to reach out to the Republicants and ask them to work seriously with him and the Democrats. He won't come out and SAY that, but he'll talk about bipartisanship... he'll talk about the Public Option in logical terms, how it can benefit the country. He may even address some of the lies that have been spread during the month of August. But I think he'll push very strongly the notion of bipartisanship and the Congress coming to work together... for a very simple reason.
He knows the Republicants will never go along with it. And when that happens, he can say, "Ok look America... I tried to work with them. I wanted a public option, they said only if it has a trigger. I said, I want a public option with a trigger, they said no, we want co-ops. I said, I want CO-OPS, they said no." The story here to keep pushing and pushing is that the Republicants will NOT seriously negotiate with you... and this story is meant for those people I mentioned before.
Now, this also goes along with the President's whole "I support the Public Option but it's not the core of reform... IF SOMEONE COMES UP WITH A BETTER IDEA, WE'LL USE IT." He's inviting Republicants to come up with someone else that will work, which they won't, because they are devoid of ideas. But at the same time, he is able to say, "Ok we looked at CO-OPs, they don't work because. We looked at a trigger, that doesn't work because." President Obama is slow and methodical, which is something the 24 hour news cycle isn't used to. So they attack him for being weak. The Republicants clamor on, laughing and deriding. And suddenly, unawares, they have the rug pulled out from under them.
Finally, President Obama's plan has the extra benefit of providing cover for Democrats from conservative areas... the so-called Blue Dogs. The Blue Dogs get to behave as the Republicants should be behaving... coming up with ideas to cut costs of the bill, to ensure health care costs are brought down over the next decade... but Democrats negotiating with Democrats is not bipartisan... so you have to throw out lures for the Republicants to join in, such as dropping the Public Option or CO-OPs... lures that will be retracted at the right moment when the Democrats will say, "we tried out best, we're going it alone." I don't think this moment is Wednesday... so don't be disappointed if lines in the sand aren't drawn then. The Wednesday speech will go by, the Finance committee will come out with something (this could be when the Republicants are let go... if Max Baucus, who has been promoted by the media as an honest broker, finally says, "We tried, the Republicants weren't serious", that's going to carry some weight. The Finance Committee puts out their proposal, it's combined with the HELP bill, the House combines their three bills, the two bills are worked out in reconciliation, and Senate Democrats come together to end a Republicant fillibuster, even if some of them don't vote on the final bill... a final bill that will include a public option, without triggers... all because the Republicants didn't take their role in this seriously.