Mir Hossein Mousavi is at it again, and in his recent statement , he shows, once again, that he has not given up, and the struggle in Iran is not over. In addition, he's upped the ante rhetorically with his recent pronouncements. Here's a quick quote to draw you in:
Now our people have felt in their skin, flesh and bones that the only way to save the country is peaceful coexistence of different tastes, walks of life, ethnicities, religions and schools of thought in this vast country whose diversity of lifestyles and communities was part and parcel of her identity since ancient times, ...
This quote departs from the less dramatic statements of the campaign and certainly implies a tolerance for diversity not previously advanced. What effect will it have? It remains to be seen, but it could easily provoke a harsh conservative reaction. In particular the reference to "ancient times" refers to pre-Islamic Persian history and is particularly inciting to hard-line religious conservatives.
Mir Hossein Mousavi
In a recent posting on his website, Mousavi continued his support for resistance to the illegitimate current government, and repeated his commitment to the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. He specifically called for continued non-violent protests large and small.
From the LATimes article on the subject:
"Despite the smear campaign of the state-run propaganda machine, it is we who are calling for the restoration of confidence and peace in society," Mousavi said in his statement. "It is we who want to avoid any kind of extremism and violence."
To see the whole LATimes article, you can go here: Borzou Daragahi
Mehdi Karroubi
Mehdi Karroubi, another June 12th Reform candidate, has also continued to pressure the government with statements about prisoner rape and other abuses by government forces. A description of Karroubi's efforts can be seen here: Karroubi on HuffingtonPost. In any case, both men have refused to accept the status quo, and both men put themselves at great risk by their continued statements.
On the government side of the issue, members of Ahmadinejad's coalition and Ahmadinejad himself have said that Reform leaders should be arrested. Language like "enemies of the state" has been thrown around referring to Mousavi, Karroubi and former President Khatami as well. Ahmadinejad's more hard-line allies for the time being appear to be restrained by Supreme Leader Khamenei's recent statements acknowledging that post-election protests were not foreign backed, as the hard-liners charge, and has been argued in the recent show trials of some Reform leaders. See story on Khamenei here: Al Jazeera English. It is also likely that behind the scenes Khamenei representatives have clearly prescribed the limits to which Ahmadienjad may go at this point.
In the weeks and months since the June 12th election and subsequent protests, there appears to be a tenuous truce that has emerged. On the Reform side, Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami make statements reflecting their desire to return to the values of the 1979 Revolution that emphasize the will of the people and greater freedoms. While the post-election protests were crushed, and 100+ leaders are currently on trial, no further action has been taken by the government.
The more hard-line elements within Ahmadinejad's coalition clearly wish to pursue the Reformers more aggressively, but they are being restrained. That restraint has clearly come from Supreme Leader Khamenei who has distanced himself from Ahmadinejad since the election and shows signs of acting through men belonging to the Pragmatic Conservative Party. The Pragmatic Conservative candidate on June 12th was Mohsen Rezai. The most visible leaders of this group are the Larijani brothers. Ali Larijani is Speaker of the Majlis, and Sadeq Larijani, recently appointed Judiciary chief by Khamenei. From most accounts, the Larijani brothers are closely aligned with Khamenei and are classic political insiders.
Khamenei seems to fear at this time, an all out attempt to crush the Reform Party. This remains to be the case as Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri and Saanei continue to publish material in support of reform in general and the Reform Party in particular. An entire wing of reformist Islamic clergy could assert itself against Khamenei if the government pursues Reform leaders too aggressively. In addition, the Reform coalition has popular support similar to Ahmadinejad's base among the urban and rural poor. Khamenei may be trying to balance the sentiments of the electorate by not allowing Ahmadinejad and the hard-liners to destroy the Reform leadership. This tenuous balance may break at any time, however if the statements from both sides result in more definitive action instead.
More information regarding Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri and Saanei: Both men, although fairly old are serious Islamic Revolution heavyweights. Their opinions cannot be cast aside as irrelevant nor can they be ignored by the current government. For a loose parallel, they are a bit like Supreme Court Justices in the US. Ayatollah Montazeri during most of the 1980s stood as the most likely successor to Ayatollah Khomeini as Supreme Leader. Due to softening of his worldview and the political maneuverings of Rafsanjani among others--Khamenei became Supreme Leader instead in 1989. Ayatollah Saanei served on the Guardian Council for much of the 1980s, and his Islamic opinions carried significant weight then, and they continue to do so now.
Grand Ayatollah Saanei
See Saanei's website in English here: Grand Ayatollah Saanei
Grand Ayatollah Montazeri
Ayatollah Montazeri's official website is in Farsi, but you can see a translation of his famous letter written shortly after the election here: Montazeri's Post-Election Letter
As the nuclear issue with Iran heats up in the next few weeks, Western leaders should carefully think through their positions and strategies. Ahmadinejad and hard-line conservatives benefit from conflict. If it appears that Iran is being threatened that will help them shore up support, and they may use conflict with the West as an excuse to crush the Reform Party leaders and the reform movement in general. I would expect more chest pounding rhetoric coming from Ahmadinejad. The Obama Administration and other Western governments should not take the bait. Talk of sanctions and bombing should be abandoned.