Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/7/2009-9/10/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 56 (52) | 39 (43) | +8 |
| | | |
PELOSI: | 33 (32) | 59 (59) | +1 |
REID: | 30 (31) | 59 (58) | -2 |
McCONNELL: | 18 (19) | 64 (63) | -2 |
BOEHNER: | 14 (15) | 62 (63) | 0 |
| | | |
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 38 (39) | 57 (56) | -2 |
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 17 (18) | 70 (69) | -2 |
| | | |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 40 (39) | 51 (52) | +2 |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 22 (23) | 68 (69) | 0 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
I think it is reasonably fair to say that there has been a lot of movement in the President's favorabilities over the past few weeks. But this week's veer in President Obama's numbers is particularly sharp, and will be a welcome sight for his supporters:
Research 2000 was kind enough to keep track of the cumulative totals on President Obama's favorabilities as the week rolled along. In so doing, we see that the decisive leap in the President's numbers was really a function of the final two days of the polling window:
President Obama's Net Favorability Rating--Cumulative Results After Each Day (Fav/Unfav rating after each day in parentheses)
MONDAY: +9 (52/43)
TUESDAY: +10 (52/42)
WEDNESDAY: +15 (55/40)
THURSDAY: +17 (56/39)
Notice, if you will, that the major leap in the President's numbers occurred not on Thursday (the first full day of polling after his health care address to Congress), but on Wednesday, when his single-day sample in the tracking was 62/36, the best numbers he has seen in over a month. His Thursday numbers appear also to have been strong, probably in the 59/39 60/38 range, if my algebraic skills are accurate (update: After receiving the one-day numbers from R2K, it is apparent my algebraic skills grade out at around a "B+").
This could be attributed to one of two things. One theory, which might be supported by the insta-polls from Wednesday night, is that this was the first sign of support after the health care address. At least some of the interviews would have been conducted post-speech, and even by Wednesday afternoon, the tenor of his address was fairly common knowledge. Seeing how the balance of Obama's bounce this week comes from Democrats (back up to 85/9 this week, a thirteen-point net improvement), perhaps the base knew by Wednesday where Obama was headed on health care, and were pleased.
Another theory, however, is that this was, in part, a reaction to the education speech on Tuesday.
Having Republicans and Obama critics raise awareness of the speech through their incessant histrionics, the relatively benign speech might have allayed the fears of Independents. A lot of folks, you have to believe, came into the day expecting socialist brainwashing, only to be pleasantly surprised when none occurred. Indeed, while the base came home, Obama's improvement this week was also propelled by a net six-point bump among Independents (among whom Obama's favorability returned to 60%).
Obama's polling resurrection, interestingly, did not necessarily extend to the Democrats he leads. Harry Reid saw his numbers continue to dip, as do Congressional Democrats. The Democratic Party, however, stops its recent slide, gaining a couple of points while the GOP holds steady.
For the first time in several weeks, the Democrats regain a few points on the 2010 Congressional question. Democrats now hold a 33-28 lead on that question. Once again, the GOP cannot break 30% on that question.
UPDATE: CBS has released some intriguing health care numbers. They reinterviewed hundreds of folks who they polled last week. In that time, the net approval of Obama on the issue of health care has leapt from a net negative seven (40/47) to a net plus fourteen (52/38). That is a substantial jump in just one week, and shows that the health care speech certainly had some effect. (Hat Tip: Kitty in the Comments section)
Also, per a recent diary by Indepenocrat, the AARP polled folks 45 and over. They found that the speech changed some hearts and minds as well, with a strong number feeling their questions about HRC were answered. Approval of the plan shot up to 68%, including a significant percentage of Republicans, according to the diary.