Fascinating:
NYC on pace for record-low number of homicides
By COLLEEN LONG (AP) – 1 hour ago
NEW YORK — The New York Police Department says the city could have its fewest number of murders in almost 50 years.
The NYPD is projecting about 457 murders this year, well below the previous low of 497 in 2007 and the lowest since the department started keeping records in 1962.
Officials say as of Friday morning, there have been 325 homicides in the city this year.
In the 1970's, 80's and 90's, recessions were marked by rising crime, and this meant rising homicides. The 2001 recession marked an end to the decline of the 1990s. But in this recession, homicides are still dropping-- even accelerating a dropoff after years of stagnation. It's not just NYC, but large cities across the country:
The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.
"Experts did not see this coming at all," said Andrew Karmen, a criminologist and professor of sociology at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.
There are all sorts of little things going on in society around us. Every one is a data point-- a tiny little piece of the big puzzle that is human civilization.
It was not so long ago that liberalism, dominant then as now in large cities, was deemed incompatible with low crime rates. The late Irving Kristol's famous definition of neoconservatism was a "liberal mugged by reality". Even a few years ago, attitudes such as this, that
Crime and liberelism go hand in hand anyway.
existed. The fundamental (and wrongheaded implication) was that liberalism was somehow incompatible with human nature. When crime rates began to fall in the 1990's credit was given to stricter laws and putting more cops on the streets.
And yet, the laws have not noticeably gotten stricter in the last year, and budget cuts have been taking cops off the streets, if anything. And yet, the fall in homicide baffles the experts. In large cities, violent crime's fall has continued throughout the decade.
It is time we admitted that we understand less about crime than we thought. In the meantime, let's celebrate this small victory.