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Taking data from our Public Option polling, Nate Silver determined that poverty levels and support for Barack Obama where the factors driving support for the Public Option. A few mathematical equations later, he projected support for the Public Option across all 435 congressional districts, and declared as a result that contrary to assertions, the Public Option would be popular in most Blue Dog districts.

The Blue Dogs have been fighting the good fight on behalf of the insurance companies, doing everything they can to stymie reform. When called to task for their anti-reform efforts, they hide behind their constituents, claiming they are simply representing the views of their constituents. We were curious -- was there any truth to these claims? As we've seen, in some places (like Nebraska), it's true, but in others, like in Jim Cooper's Tennessee district, it's not.

So could Nate's analysis be used to determine who was in the bag for the insurance industry, and who was representing their constituents? We set out to test Nate's hypothesis by asking voters in four Blue Dog districts what they thought. I chose Mike Ross in Arkansas 4, given his recent high-profile defection on the issue of the Public Option, apparently spooked by the teabaggers at his townhall meetings. I asked Nate to pick three other districts that would best test his hypothesis, and he chose Bart Stupak in MI-01, Henry Cuellar in TX-28, and John Barrow in GA-12.


We found that the Public Option enjoys support in these districts, quite strongly in three of them, and that in every single case, the popularity of the Public Option was higher than that of Barack Obama, suggesting that banking on Obama's personal popularity may be the wrong strategy in the places where the Public Option needs the most bolstering. Furthermore, we found that none of these four are on solid electoral footing, none have positive ratings on health care, and all would suffer electoral harm (to varying degrees) by opposing the Public Option.

Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?Arkansas 4Favor: 47
Oppose: 44
Georgia 12Favor: 51
Oppose: 41
Michigan 1Favor: 53
Oppose: 42
Texas 28Favor: 53
Oppose: 40
Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose Barack Obama's health care plan?Arkansas 4Favor: 40
Oppose: 48
Georgia 12Favor: 46
Oppose: 47
Michigan 1Favor: 46
Oppose: 48
Texas 28Favor: 51
Oppose: 42

The Public Option polls narrowly ahead, within the margin of error, in Arkansas 4. In the other three districts, it's a solid double-digit margin. Yet when asked whether respondents favor "Obama's health care plan", which includes a Public Option, people are less enthusiastic. Henry Cuellar's Texas 29, the only district to show majority support for "Obama's plan", is the only one of the four in which Obama maintains a positive favorability rating.

As much as these congressman claim they are representing their districts, none have favorable approval ratings on the issue of health care.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [local congressman]?Mike Ross, AR-1Favorable: 45
Unfavorable: 42
John Barrow, GA-12Favorable: 43
Unfavorable: 42
Bart Stupak, MI-01Favorable: 44
Unfavorable: 46
Henry Cuellar, TX-28Favorable: 44
Unfavorable: 45
Do you approve or disapprove of [local Congressman's] actions on health care?Mike Ross, AR-1Favorable: 43
Unfavorable: 45
John Barrow, GA-12Favorable: 42
Unfavorable: 50
Bart Stupak, MI-01Favorable: 39
Unfavorable: 52
Henry Cuellar, TX-28Favorable: 41
Unfavorable: 49

Mike Ross is an anomaly with this crowd -- he receives plurality support on health care from Republicans (45-44) and Independents (43-42), within the margin of error of course, to balance out the 42-48 he gets from Democrats. The others all sport poor ratings from all political stripes. In general, Ross included, the Blue Dogs aren't going to be getting any parades back home as a result of their health care actions. They are uniformly woeful. And this could cost them in 2010:

If the 2010 election for Congress were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect [local Congressman], would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you definitely vote to replace [local Congressman]?Mike Ross, AR-1Reelect: 41
Consider: 38
Replace: 21
John Barrow, GA-12Reelect: 32
Consider: 37
Replace: 31
Bart Stupak, MI-01Reelect: 35
Consider: 41
Replace: 24
Henry Cuellar, TX-28Reelect: 39
Consider: 38
Replace: 22
If Mike Ross opposed a public health insurance option, would that make you more or less likely to vote for him or would it have no real effect on your vote?Mike Ross, AR-1More: 17
Less: 19
No Effect 64
John Barrow, GA-12More: 12
Less: 24
No Effect 64
Bart Stupak, MI-01More: 14
Less: 23
No Effect 63
Henry Cuellar, TX-28More: 13
Less: 22
No Effect 65

The "no effect" numbers suggest voting against the public option won't make much of a difference. But for a bunch of guys who always face the threat of a tight race, losing even a few percentage points could prove troublesome in 2010. But it's worse than that, because we can assume that most of these guys won't get much Republican support anyway, and Republicans should be extra energized next year. So these Blue Dogs will need every Democrat and Independent voter he can get. Here's how those voters will react to a potential "no" vote on the public option:

Democrats: 12% more likely to vote for him, 32% less
Independents: 14 more, 17 less

Democrats: 5 more, 39 less
Independents: 8 more, 21 less

Democrats: 6 more, 35 less
Independents: 11 more, 26 less

Democrats: 7 more, 35 less
Independents: 10 more, 22 less

These guys have made a career out of crapping on their Democratic base, but these numbers among Independents don't look so hot. This kind of slippage could be deadly. Republicans will certainly turn out. If Democrats and reform-minded Independents don't feel the incumbent is worth a trip to the polls, that kind of apathy could cost them their jobs.

I'll be digging into these numbers more over the next couple of days. Lots of great data to sort through, and lots of bullshit Blue Dog assumptions to shatter.

Oh, and how did Nate's projections of support for the Public Option match up to this polling? Remember there's margins of errors all around -- for this polling and for Nate's projections. It was a mixed bag:

Arkansas 4: Nate: 49-41, Poll: 47-44
Georgia 12: Nate: 69-25, Poll: 51-41
Michigan 01: Nate: 53-37, Poll: 53-42
Texas 28: Nate: 73-22 , Poll: 53-40

Arkansas 4 and Michigan 1 were only five points off, but he overestimated support by a significant number in Georgia 12 and Texas 29. It'll be interesting to see what he tweaks in his formula as a result of this additional data. The more information he has, the more he'll be able to fine tune his model.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:16 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  ideological opposition to public option by these (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betson08, blueyescryinintherain

    congresspeople may trump any poll numbers. they will raise money from the health insurance company lobbyists and then run ads about how horrible the PO is and that may change the voters minds through lies and distortions about big government and how the PO is "huge government takeover."

    Sorry I have to run to the Senate floor to abolish torture.

    by bten on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:20:19 AM PDT

    •  For most of these guys, its not ideology (10+ / 0-)

      It's straight up being in the tank for the insurance companies.

      "If you come to a fork in the road, take it." - Yogi Berra

      by brooklynbadboy on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:21:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  "in the tank" or "in the take"? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        brooklynbadboy, Voodoo king

        My idea of an agreeable person is a person who agrees with me. Benjamin Disraeli

        by pvmuse on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:23:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That money isn't going to do them alot of good (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        brooklynbadboy, divineorder

        when they get shit-canned by their constituents.

        Remember Descent Highest Form of Patriotic - Moranic teabagger sign

        by blueyescryinintherain on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:23:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I wonder if they can overcome (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        their constituents' anger with insurance industry money this time.

      •  Stupak is interesting (0+ / 0-)

        I seem to recall that he is evangelical and lives or lived at "The Family's" C-Street House, of John Ensign and Mark Sanford fame.  Maybe he is out there as far as his constituents are concerned?  He looks like someone who might be primaried.  Barrow's district is pretty conservative and Cuellar's was tailored for him, wasn't it?  And didn't he get primaried by Ciro Rodriguez a few years ago and won despite support freom many of us?  

        Ross and Stupak look the most interesting as far as primaries go, at least to this outsider.

        Democracy needs accountability. Investigate and prosecute the Torture Thirteen.

        by Mimikatz on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:23:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The 1st District is Interesting (0+ / 0-)

          The District is the second largest east of the Mississippi, and effectively split in two: the Upper Peninsula, and the Northern half of the Lower Peninsula.  The UP is strong union democrats whose Congressional, State Senate, and State Representatives (4/4) are all Democrats.  The Lower Peninsula is strong conservative republicans with 2 of 3 State Senators and 2 of 4 State Representatives being Republican.  

          The Democratic UP State Senator Mike Prussi is termed out and the sole term limited UP State Representatives, Gary McDowell will likely opt to run for that seat instead of a primary challenge against Congressman Stupak.  The two Democratic LP State Representatives termed out, Andy Neuman and Joel Sheltrown, will likely fight it out to replace the termed-out Republican State Senator.  

          What this means is that State Senator Mike Prusi is the only viable elected official who may attempt to primary Congressman Stupak.  But Senator Prusi undoubtedly knows how difficult it is to challenge a sitting Congressman in the 1st District due to geography.  He may be well liked in the portion of the UP he represents, but he is a complete unknown downstate.  It is highly unlikely that Senator Prusi would be able to raise the money to conduct a primary battle is such a large district with approximately five distinct media markets in under a year.  In fact, his Annual CS for 2009 only shows $5,073.57 on hand, hardly the treasure trove he would need for a viable challenge.  Finally, he will be 61 next year and is unlikely to be looking for another political office.

          So no, it is unlikely that Congressman Stupak will have a primary fight.

    •  Americans United for Change (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, political junquie, snaglepuss

      •  Great ad and promising strategy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kitty, snaglepuss

        What this ad and the data above suggest is that we need to treat this as a campaign--a referendum in every single district--rather than the usual route to legislation via coalitions of politicians.

        Once the people are on board, and calling their legislators, it'll just be fun watching all the laggards coming around and supporting the PO.

        And it's great practice for upcoming struggles.

  •  Kudos Kos. n/t (5+ / 0-)

    "If you come to a fork in the road, take it." - Yogi Berra

    by brooklynbadboy on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:20:51 AM PDT

  •  Wow, so much for conventional wisdom [snort!]. 10 (6+ / 0-)

    bucks says the traditional media will not be reporting these poll results.

    Remember Descent Highest Form of Patriotic - Moranic teabagger sign

    by blueyescryinintherain on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:21:40 AM PDT

  •  So the Blue Dogs have two options... (7+ / 0-)

    The can either support a strong public option that will energize the Democratic base and deflate the Republicans - thereby win re-election.


    They can pander to the right-wing extremist, deflate the Dem base, energize they Republican base and lose to a right-wing Republican candidate.

    Why can't these guys figure this out?

    "Barack Obama stripped millions of Americans of their right to not have a black President." - Tim F. on Balloon Juice

    by RichM on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:22:33 AM PDT

  •  Question about support for Obama's plan a bad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    irmaly, divineorder

    question, not b/c it isn't relevant, but because it becomes a vote for or against Obama regardless of what they know about his healthcare plan.  I doubt most respondents that oppose the plan can even accurately articulate what Obama's plan is.

    The only thing we have to fear is fear itself - FDR. Obama Nation. -6.13 -6.15

    by ecostar on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:25:22 AM PDT

  •  how about this... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    myeye, divineorder, Miggles

    lets start a petition drive with the DCCC that not one cent goes to any of their coffers unless they support and vote for a public option.

    the only way to get them to stand in line with democrats is to act like a democrat.  They don't want to, no $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:25:55 AM PDT

  •  Awesome data (2+ / 0-)

    It is simply great to see actual data in these districts.  

    The re-elect numbers here are very discouraging.  If the election was held a month from now I think we would be astonished at how close the GOP would come to taking the House.  I reviewed a series of seats from Tennessee and concluded we would likely lose at least 2.

    Happily the election is more than a year a way, and the economy not health care, will likely be the determining factor.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:26:42 AM PDT

  •  March!!! (0+ / 0-)

    Calling and writing letters is part of a process that should probably include a massive, well behaved, media magnet like a march on DC.  The public option battle seems like one progressives can win if we give it our all.  It is incredibly important to get a piece of legislation passed that benefits the working class directly.  We have to win this one and we can if we do everything we can.

  •  The Blue Frauds (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Voodoo king, Ezekial 23 20

    don't care about the consumer or the deficit. If they did they would support single payer since it would cover everybody and reduce overall healthcare spending. Besides, most of these frauds who were in office at the time supported the Bush tax cuts which helped increase the deficit, not to mention their full support for invading Iraq without paying for it. The one and only thing they care about is getting paid by the medical industry.

  •  Correct it is Ross Ar-4 (3+ / 0-)

    You have Ross listed at AR-1 in places. He is AR-4

    •  Good catch. (0+ / 0-)

      There's also a spelling mistake in the first sentence:

      Taking data from our Public Option polling, Nate Silver determined that poverty levels and support for Barack Obama where the factors driving support for the Public Option.

      Were the factors driving support?

      This is one of the reasons that people don't respect bloggers - it's hard to trust the underlying argument when the post is riddled with mistakes and misspellings.  As much as I love Daily Kos, I wish they would hire an editor for front page posts!

  •  You can see what white southerners (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jim J, ManhattanMan, TomP, skillet

    think of the President. Barrow's district has a 40% black electorate, but Obama is still underwater.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:32:25 AM PDT

  •  Barrow is the guy Obama cut a campaign ad for (8+ / 0-)

    In it, he said, Barrow stands up to the lobbyists. What do you say John?

    •  Barrow is what the some people might (0+ / 0-)

      refer to as a "douchebag". He is a completely pompous ass, with no regard for his constituents, beyond being re-elected. As much as it would be lousy to lose that seat, I hate seeing that jackass be an elected Dem.

      "She was very young,he thought,...she did not understand that to push an inconvenient person over a cliff solves nothing." -1984

      by aggressiveprogressive on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 10:04:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Barrow (0+ / 0-)

      My guess is that Barrow is the one to go after. He's got a Democratic district so there's a chance to get rid of a terrible Blue Dog and keep the seat in Democrat hands. His voting record is-- by far-- the worst of the 4 congressmen whose districts were polled. An extended version of this: How vulnerable is Barrow?

  •  This is what I don't understand. (14+ / 0-)

    Graham and the others continue to insist that the "public" is opposed to a Democratic plan to reform our healthcare system and that they are particularly opposed to the public option. Except for a small group of vocal wingnuts and insurance company shills all indication is that the public very much supports a "government run option". While polls may have indicated 60% of the people(at one time a few weeks ago) did not favor Obama's handling of healthcare reform, that 60% included people like myself who are in favor of a single payer system but are willing to accept a public option as a first step in the same group as insurance company CEOs who want the system to stay exactly as it is. The poll numbers IMHO were very misleading and republican/insurance company sopkesmen like Graham, Boehner and McConnell never get called on it during interviews when they cite these numbers.

    That's America, buddy! So wake up -- to your only logical choice: Me. George Tirebiter

    by irate on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:33:49 AM PDT

  •  Great work (6+ / 0-)

    Polls show responses better than town halls do.

    OTOH, most of these margins are slim. I doubt that anybody could win a primary based on the incumbent's going against the Public Option.
    On the third hand, (don't you guys have more than two?) voting against whatever Health Care Reform plan gets out of conference would probably be suicidal. The peopl aren't agreed on what they want, but they want something to change.

    If "con" is the antonym of "pro," what is the antonym of "progress"?

    by Frank Palmer on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:36:32 AM PDT

  •  A primary challenge to (4+ / 0-)

    Ross exposing that he is bought and paid for would do a lot of good long term for progressives and moderates in the Dem party.

    A blue dog must lose for them to learn.  If the primary opponent prevails, great. but if not, exposing Ross could well cause him to lose in the general election.

    Until we show blue dogs real electoral risk for seling out to corproations, they will continue to play their games.  Better Dems is so much more imporatant than a few blue dogs.

    Firedoglake's new ad in his diatist is excellent.

    And if Ross changes party registration to the Rs, so much the better.  Then we can run a real Dem.  

    "Free your mind & your ass will follow" Parliament Funkadelics

    by TomP on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:36:34 AM PDT

    •  This strategy (0+ / 0-)

      as much as I agree with it will not be implemented if the political environment remains as it is.

      We are in serious danger of losing the House.  People are badly underestimating the anger in this electorate, and absent an economic recovery that is not readily obvious at the moment we will be holding on for dear life at next year.

      The best argument to make to these blue dogs is that Health Care will not decide their fate, the economy will, but it will decide if you receive money from the netroots who have proved in two consecutive cycles to be a critical source of money for Democrats.  

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:58:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bart Stupak of Michigan is a joke. I saw him on (3+ / 0-)

    Fox news the other day pretty much calling the President a liar. Why don't this guys just do us a favor and quit the party. Stupak regardless of the facts kept on saying there's abortion funding in health care bill when that's not the case.

    •  Not really (0+ / 0-)

      HR 3200 does provide abortion funding, which appears to be the sole opposition that Congressman Stupak has to the bill., which this site frequently cites to, states that HR 3200 would in fact provide abortion funding under the Capps Amendment.  So I'm afraid that your statement is not 100% accurate as HR 3200 does provide abortion funding; however, other bills do not.  Should the Capps Amendment be stricken then I believe that Congressman Stupak's opposition will also disappear.

  •  Another thing. This losers will be the first ones (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    irmaly, Ezekial 23 20

    Losing their seats next year. Nothing better could  happen to a bunch of insuraance company whores.

  •  So who do we need to primary? (0+ / 0-)

    With all the varied diaries swirling around, I think the most importnat thing to find out soon is where we should start throwing our campaign donations.  The sooner the better.

    Which districts/states do we actually have a shot of turning a red seat blue, and which blue dog states/districts are being obstructionist and need primaried to turn them even bluer...

    Those who labour in the earth are the chosen people of God. - Thomas Jefferson

    by Ezekial 23 20 on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:47:44 AM PDT

  •  Long Winter of Blue Dawg Discontent..... (0+ / 0-)

    ..not to worry....'Snowe' will save their asses.

  •  Are you surprised at the splits on your results? (0+ / 0-)

    I'm not sure if that's the proper term for "poll-ology," but I was kind of surprised that in all the districts, the for/against are pretty close. That is, no wild 80/20 splits.

    I guess Texas surprises me the most, and makes me want to ask, how was the poll conducted? By telephone? Were they registered voters or all people?

    Because I've lived in that district, or what used to be part of that district, and know the area, and I didn't think it would be like that.

    Of course, Tom Delay destroyed representative politics in Texas with his asinine redistricting. I left the state in 2004 and came back in 2007. All the repulsive Republican reps are right where they want to be, while Democrats are left scrambling.

    We need laws that don't allow one political party to draw such ridiculous district lines -- in either one's favor.

    "The difference between the right word and the almost-right word is like the difference between lightning and the lightning bug." -- Mark Twain

    by Brooke In Seattle on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:56:08 AM PDT

  •  Bye Bye Mike Ross. (0+ / 0-)
    Don't let the door smother you, where the insurance companies fail to cover you.
    •  Mike Ross defense letter (0+ / 0-)

      I got a letter from Rep. Ross today, and I am assuming he sent it to all the state committee members.  I am in the 3rd CD so that is the only way he could have got my address.  

      The letter defends his actions and those of the Blue Dogs.

      1.  He supports health care reform and the three principles Obama laid out in his speech
      1.  He voted for the reform bill in committee that included a public option (and because of it he had to spend 40K in response ads to the RNC)
      1.  He says he is not owned by the insurance and drug industries.  (he does not mention the rest of the health care industry)
      1.  Says he is a real Democrat because he has raised and given $2 million to the DCCC and DPA (Arkansas), and that the Blue Dogs are the reason we have a majority.

      He included a statement on White House letterhead  praising the actions of the Blue Dogs.  

      What do we think about this?

      "Baby, if I told you I was a race with 1% of precincts reporting, would you call me?"

      by Daxton16 on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 02:30:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A little context helps in re Stupak (0+ / 0-)

    I'm glad Kos has been commissioning these polls. Very helpful for leveling the playing field between us and the corporate donors. But no, Stupak isn't shitting on his Dem base, nor is his seat threatened.

    Bart represents the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. It is a WEIRD, ultra-rural place. Only place in America where Finnish-Americans register as a demographic blip. The partisan ID may tilt towards the D, but they may not be Dems like the rest of us expect. We're talking a mix of New Dealers, Reagan Dems, unionized miners. The place is desperately poor. Undoubtedly Yoopers would be better off with a public option. But insurance doesn't mean much when the nearest doctor is a county away. Mostly, Yoopers want to be left alone.

    Stupak's been in Congress for over a decade, and I'm tired of his anti-choice shenanigans. But his seat is mostly secure, and he's shitting on all his constituents, not any sort of active Democratic base. His base is elk and trees.

    I say Billings, be careful with that missile!

    by Chairman Bob on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:56:47 AM PDT

  •  They tried to fool the people. (0+ / 0-)

    They failed.

    But there will still be no public option.

    Because we live in a corptocracy.  The politicians are owned by corporations.  Democrat.  Republican.  They vote with who brought them to the dance.

    Rise up, grassroots.

    Denial is complicity.

    by Publius2008 on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:00:51 AM PDT

  •  The racial split is really demoralizing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aggressiveprogressive, andgarden

    in my district of GA 12 less than one out of five whites approves of Obama.

  •  BUT BUT BUT (0+ / 0-)

    The Blue Dogs must be coddled...even when they are taking action against their consituents, their party, and independents.

    Progressives on the other hand, hammer away at them.  They can take it.  

    At least according to some commenters here that deem themselves strategic geniuses.  Must.Not.Fight Blue Dogs.  

    The conventional wisdom ingrained in many people's head due even after being continuously proved wrong, over and over again amazes me.

    Democrats.  Keeping the powder dry since 2002.

    "Republicans drove the country into a ditch and now they are complaining about the cost of the tow truck"-Jim Cornette

    by justmy2 on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:06:48 AM PDT

  •  I wouldn't cry if all 4 lost their seats to (0+ / 0-)

    Republicans, honestly. They can serve as canaries in the coal mine to the other fuckwad Blue Dog assholes that their days are numbered.

    PUMA to these fuckers, and not just because of HCR. They will serve to stand in the way of any meaningful change. They are anti-progressives. It's unlikely we'll change the minds of people living in these districts to do any better, and seriously it's just time to cut them the hell loose.

    Meanwhile, we should be concentrating on supporting real progressive Democrats that deserve our support.

    Not another damn nickel to the DCCC to elect jackasses like these ones. Ever again. I'm done with the DCCC and DSCC, forever.

  •  They're (0+ / 0-)

    counting on huge infusions of $ from the corporate insurance/pharma complex to get them over the top, I guess

    "They had fangs. They were biting people. They had this look in their eyes,totally cold, animal. I think they were young Republicans."

    by slouching on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:14:31 AM PDT

  •  Be sure to send these results to (0+ / 0-)

    our furry friends and say, we don't really want to have you neutered, but.........

    Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité

    by snaglepuss on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:14:58 AM PDT

  •  Some Blue Dogs Do Support (0+ / 0-)

    a public option.

    One congressman out in the western part of my state (Colorado 3d district) has quietly supported PO from the beginning. No town halls, doesn't want to make a fuss, doesn't want confrontation, but he has a heck of a lot of uninsured people in his district. I should do a diary and a link for campaign contributions.

    Name is Salazar, Hispanic, old ranching family from Colorado.

    Dr Dean's where congress stands

    John Salazar on PO

    "Don't fall or we both go" Derek Hersey

    by ban nock on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:15:50 AM PDT

  •  GREAT rock video on Health Care debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I don't know how it figures here, and I apologize if this is somehow a hijack, but the video puts in a really fun way it takes on the Town Hall Crazies and points out we're #37 in health care. Someone just posted it to my Facebook page.

    How can the Blue Dogs argue against these facts?

  •  We need to FORGET our playbook... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...when we deal with these purple and red areas.

    We need to stop using Obama's coat-tails, stories of greedy insurance companies, and tearjerkers about single moms with no coverage.

    We need to focus on how the Public Option:

    1. Lifts billions of dollars in drag from the economy
    1. Forces individual responsibility through mandates
    1. Promotes individual freedom by letting people keep their insurance when they start their own small business
    1. Makes insurance companies abide by their contracts by ending rescission.

    We, including Obama, are letting this Public Option thing become a referendum on (in the President's words) "The role of Government in our Society".

    It is not that big a deal. If we make it that big a deal, we will have people in tri-corner hats yelling mis-quotations from The Federalist Papers at us all winter, and I was sick of these knuckleheads in August, please.

    We just need to focus on the facets of the plan that most of the people in purple districts will like, and present those forcefully. Then enough of them will get the facts and see it our way.

  •  I'm Curious (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BruinKid, Nolan, happy camper

    Why was Congressman Stupak polled?  He is not a Blue Dog.  He has almost always voted with leadership on every issue except abortion (Big Tent means we need to allow room for pro-life Democrats), even voting against his district in closing the gun show loophole.  His sole opposition to the House bill is over abortion funding, which HR 3200 funds for situations currently covered by Medicare and leaves discretionary funding up to the Secretary of Health & Human Services.  Contrary to Kos's statements above, Congressman Stupak's has not made a career out of crapping on his democratic base, which in the Upper Peninsula is strongly pro-life.

    If nothing else, this article should be amended to clarify that the Blue Dog comments do not apply to Congressman Stupak who is not a Blue Dog and is opposed to HR-3200 only to the extent that the Capps Amendment pays for discretionary abortion.

    •  You beat me to it! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Stupak votes with his party 95% of the time. Not only that, he's unlikely to lose his seat, polling notwithstanding. He got 65% of the vote in 08. They love this guy in  northern MI.

      Stupak's a good guy. No way does he belong on this list.

      "Well, you've got to understand, they're Republicans. They're just doing what comes natural." -John Dingell

      by happy camper on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:36:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I do understand why the 1st was polled ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        arlene, happy camper

        insomuch as it is an extremely rural, conservative, and poor district.  If the PO polls well here, then it is doing very well.  So to the extent that you want to poll the favorability of the PO, this is a phenomenal district to poll.  But if you're polling the PO in Blue Dog districts then this was a poor choice.

  •  Thanks again for polling Texas. (0+ / 0-)

    And giving me something to smack our conservadems around with. ;)

    My Dear Henry letter...

    Before you win, you have to fight. Come fight along with us at TexasKaos.

    by boadicea on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:31:25 AM PDT

  •  Stupak's not a blue dog (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Or at least I can't find him on their site:

    Not that he isn't conservative, but the UP (Upper Peninsula) is unique part of America and I'm not sure how much use they have for liberal dems up there.

    •  Stupak is pro life (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Other than that he's a reliable Democratic vote. He voted against the AUMF, and has consistently opposed the war in Iraq. The UP is indeed unique, but more liberal than you might think.

      "Well, you've got to understand, they're Republicans. They're just doing what comes natural." -John Dingell

      by happy camper on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 09:39:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Cuellar is in no danger of losing his seat. (0+ / 0-)

    That's what is so infuriating. TX-28 stretches from Guadalupe County just east of San Antonio all the way to Laredo.  Jesus Christ could not get elected from this district as a Republican.

    The primary will have to be the best shot and adjusting his behavior. Although I did see he voted yes on ACES and has said he supports a public option b/c so many in his district are uninsured. Maybe he's coming around.

    I haven't heard anything new.

    What about Ciro in he for the PO? Amazing how things turned out...if he were still in TX-28 I'm almost 95% positive he would be for it but now that he's in a "swingy-er" district he feels the need to hedge his bets.

  •  Thanks, KOS for poining that out. (0+ / 0-)

    I thought these districts were TEPID on Healthcare and LIKED Obama.  I guess I had it the other way around, but that came from the Mainstream Media.

  •  This is a great piece (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If any other districts are polled like this, it would be great to see CO-03 (J. Salazar) and CO-04 (B. Markey) included.


    The Congress is back in session and doing the dirty work for the Medical Industrial Complex.

    mcconnell $3.3M, hatch $2.9M, baucus $2.8M, grassley $2.7M,
    lieberman $2.6M, burr $2.4M, ensign $2.4M, cornyn $2.2M, kyl $2.1M,
    conrad $2.1M, cantor $1.8M boehner $1.7M, coburn $1.2M, j wilson 800K  
    were paid by the Medical Industrial Complex to kill Health Care Reform.

    Researchers from Harvard Medical School say the lack of coverage can be tied to about 45,000 deaths a year in the United States. 12 Million Americans were denied health care coverage by the Medical Industrial Complex because they had a pre-existing medical condition. 12K Americans are denied insurance coverage everyday by a for-profit Insurance bureaucrat. (Source: WaPo Article 05′ by Harvard Prof. E. Warren)

    Medical malpractice lawsuits are a hot topic but, are they? Tort Reform is such a "Red Herring" and is easily disproved.  A 2004 report by the Congressional Budget Office said medical malpractice makes up only 2 percent of U.S. health spending. Even "significant reductions" would do little to curb health-care expenses, it concluded.

    David Frum, at least, is willing to admit the idea about selling insurance across state lines is a crock:

    New Jersey health policies cost more in large part because New Jersey hospitals and doctors charge more. If I buy a cheaper Kentucky policy that reimburses my providers at Kentucky rates, leaving me to pay the balance, how much good does that do me? And if the Kentucky policy is made to pay New Jersey rates, there vanishes my low Kentucky price.

    These are some of the easily refuted arguments bought and paid for by the Medical Industrial Complex to derail any chance of their criminally massive profits being reduced.

    Follow the Money: Link

    Call Congress and demand, Single-Payer Health Care for All!

    (Toll Free # House and Senate)

    Sign Single-Payer Petition: Link

    Don’t let the Medical Industrial Complex steal your Health Care from you and your family by donating huge sums of money to Crooked Politicians in order to maintain the Status Quo. Keep up the good fight.


  •  I would suggest (0+ / 0-)

    that you poll the public option as only being open to the uninsured, self employed and small business seeing as all the bills proposed have only had the exchange open to those groups. At this point a public option open to everyone is not a policy option.

    Want healthcare? Join Netroots for Healthcare: Twitter & E-mail

    by Populista on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 11:25:46 AM PDT

  •  'Way to go, kos & ns! Stripping the mask. (0+ / 0-)

    That is a model of research applied to real needs.

    I'm looking forward to a composite table (or a series of four such), in which the different variables for each critter are aligned, and topped off with some info on their funding from the health/insurance industry.

    --You made my day.

  •  As still a legal, registered voter (0+ / 0-)

    from the 4th district of Arkansas, I will certify that I will NEVER vote for Ross again.  I will vote against him in a primary, and, if he be the nominee, not vote at all in the general election (on principle I do not ever vote for Republicans) unless his opponent is independent (and not a wingnut) or a Green.

    The exact same logic goes for Lincoln and Pryor.  I will vote against each of them in a primary, and just leave it blank unless someone better is running in the general.  If this makes me cantankerous, so be it.  YOU try writing to them and read the idiotic pap that they send back.  "Your views are important...." only is the beginning of the lies that they send.

    Warmest regards,


    Time for real health care reform, not just to patch the patches.

    by Translator on Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 08:12:05 PM PDT

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