Watching world leaders prepare for the United Nations' climate meeting tomorrow feels like watching a group of nervous high schoolers milling around at the beginning of the first dance of the school year, each afraid to be the first one to step out on to the dance floor. Who will make the first move? Who's trying to attract whom, and who runs the risk of being last?
The dance floor just got a lot more crowded, with significant news from both China and India. China will announce a carbon trading program this week that will put China well ahead of America. Similarly, India is announcing aggressive cuts in its carbon program.
All eyes now turn to the United States. Follow me below the fold for a brief sketch of the dancers' latest moves.
The setting is supposed to be a lovely city in Denmark, and the party is not supposed to start until December 7. However, frustrated with the pace of the party planning, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is bringing together the world's leaders tomorrow in New York for what he calls a special summit, and others call "shock therapy" (more on that below).
Japan was the first to step out on to the dance floor a few weeks ago with an election. While the party formerly in power had promised only to reduce carbon 8% by 2020, the new leader committed to reduce carbon 25% by 2020 -- changing Japan from modest to fabulous. Japan then realized she shouldn't be dancing without China, India, and an offset, so she's walking back toward the sidelines a bit -- but still, a brave move. She's also announcing legislation for a mandatory cap and trade program to go into effect no later than 2012.
Australia sees herself as a matchmaker. Yesterday her chief climate minister announced a "Chinese menu" plan:
Under Australia's plan, outlined by Wong in a speech in New York, countries would register plans for lowering emissions, such as reducing deforestation, or setting renewable energy use targets, linking them to any broader post-Kyoto agreement.
"In other words, commitments won't be one-size-fits-all. They will be differentiated, and the actions countries take to fulfil those commitments will be varied in nature, reflecting different national circumstances," Wong said.
The Europeans have been preparing for this dance for months if not years. They've done everything right, by their lights, including a shiny new carbon emissions cap. They're frustrated because America won't join them. Actually, "frustrated" doesn't begin to describe it. Gordon Brown reports that the negotiations are in grave danger. Other commentators gripe about the glacial pace of healthcare reform proposals, which seem modest to European eyes, and fret that American healthcare reform could end up sinking the world.
Today, China steps, not just onto the dance floor, but into the spotlight: China adopts a new carbon emissions trading scheme, details to be announced this week, reports the Times of London.
China will throw down the gauntlet to western economies and businesses on climate change when it unveils its own emissions-trading scheme this week.
The unexpected move will, for the first time, place limits on the amount of greenhouse gases Chinese industries are allowed to emit....
If China installs a scheme to cap the emissions of its industries, it would create huge demand for new environmental projects, significantly increasing the value of the market.
Rumors are of a 15% cut by 2020 -- less than the 17% cut sought by the American cap and trade bill, Waxman-Markey, but still an important first step.
Not to be outdone, India's environment minister told the British Guardian newspaper:
In an interview with the Guardian, India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, sketched out a series of measures he said would go some distance to cutting India's emissions, so-called mitigation measures. "India is going to aggressively take on voluntary mitigration outcomes," he said. "We are now going to go for domestic legislation [which] will enshrine some targets."
These include a mandatory fuel efficiency target which would come into effect in 2011; a more energy efficient building code which would come into effect in 2012; and an increase in electricity produced from renewable sources to 20% by 2020. The government was also stepping up efforts to stop deforestation, raising its target for tree cover to 15% by 2020. He said these measures and others were designed to reduce India's energy intensity by a further 5 to 10%.
"What India is going to do is to set a target date which is 2020 and introduce a quantitative outcome which is an implicit mitigation target — not explicit target. We will enshrine that into law so that there is a degree of credibility."
India is still hesitant to dance with anyone else and enter into a binding treaty -- but it's a good first step.
Canada was once perceived as a nice, innocuous player at the dance, but others now realize that she's been in bed with a Tar Sands Monster, and suddenly her taste is questionable.
The dance will not follow a typical format of limousines and entourages. Instead, its host has planned what the Guardian calls diplomatic shock therapy. The usual cliques will also be broken up.
The heads of state attending the UN summit are to be stripped of their entourages. Each will be allowed just one aide, generally their country's environment minister, in the sessions.
Instead of set-piece speeches, leaders will be paired off to chair discussion groups. Britain will be with Guyana, Tuvalu with the Netherlands, and Mongolia with the European commission.
The leaders will also lunch with environmental activists and chief executives of corporations who have been pressing their governments for action. At dinner, the leaders of the biggest polluting countries will dine with the leaders of Bangladesh, Kiribati and Costa Rica – which are among the primary victims of climate change.
All eyes now turn to the United States. Will she finish fussing with her healthcare reform in time, or not? The UN hopes for help from Barack Obama, who will speak tomorrow. Europe hopes that he will send a strong signal that America is committed to action. So do I.
Update/clarification for those who question the pronouns: The high school dance metaphor fits. I didn't want to open a second can of worms by deciding which countries were female and which male, and thus arbitrarily decreed that all are female. See comment in response to Maori also. Thanks.
Update/clarification 2: the term 'diplomatic shock therapy' is taken straight from the Guardian story and is not intended by me to refer to outdated psychiatric treatments, outdated diplomatic policies, or anything else.