Democracy Corps (D) (PDF). 9/23-27. Registered voters. MoE ~3.5% (No trend lines)
Now let me ask something else. One of the questions on the ballot this November will read as follows: "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" - If the election were held today, would you vote YES or NO on this question?
Yes strongly 37
Yes not strongly 4
No not strongly 7
No strongly 43
Yes 41
No 50
Remember, a "Yes" vote is AGAINST gay marriage, while a "No" vote is FOR it. Kind of confusing.
This is a poll of registered voters. (Our poll two weeks ago was of "likely voters"). So don't get too complacent or pleased with the results. This is a best-case scenario if everyone came out and voted. We know the real world doesn't work that way.
On the other hand, this may be the first time I've seen intensity on our side on the issue of gay marriage -- 43 percent of respondents strongly oppose efforts to eliminate Maine's marriage equality. Only 37 percent strongly support the bigoted position. Hopefully that leads to stronger turnout from our side.
While I'd rather the polls show us in the lead than behind, fact is polling low-turnout ballot initiatives is tough business, and there could be people who lie to pollsters about controversial topics like this one, afraid to admit their bigotry. If you can help, please do. If you can get up to Maine and help with the field work, please do so. If you can drop a few bucks into the battle, also do that. If we stop the bigoted Right in Maine, it'll create momentum toward California's effort to reinstate marriage equality in 2010, and eventually beyond.
This one will be a nail biter. Every little bit of help will have an effect.