Kos wrote today about the Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey on the public option, which is favored in the Northeast, Midwest, and West, but running just about even in the South. To listen to the Naysaying Republican politicians from the South and some Central states, you might think that their people are dead against the Public Option or any other Liberal position. Evidently you, and they, would be wrong.
Some in the Old Confederacy are talking about Nullification and Secession again, but there are many signs that the region is reaching the tipping point where the racists, the Southern Aristocracy (some might say, Plutocracy or even Kleptocracy), and the Old Time churches become the minority, and gradually lose control of Southern politics. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com did an analysis earlier this year of when each state will go for gay marriage, based on recent voting trends and changing demographics. A straight-line projection has Mississippi coming in last, in 2024 or thereabouts.
Other specific issues will come in at different times. When will we get them all?
I don't have the data to answer that question completely, but we can make a good beginning just with Nate's state-by-state results. They give us a first rough estimate on local politics everywhere. Nationally, the question is when Liberal issues can get to 60 votes in the Senate without any Blue Dogs.
We can make a rough projection by looking at which Red and Purple states will tip first on gay marriage, as a proxy for all Blue/Red issues, and looking at the Republican and Blue Dog Democratic Senators from those states. (The Senate is divided into three "classes", with only one class up for election every two years. Class III is up for election in 2010, I in 2012, and II in 2014.)
2010
Montana, Senators Baucus (II) and Tester (I)
2011
Wyoming, Senators Barrasso (I) and Enzi (II)
Idaho, Senators Crapo (III) and Risch (II)
Arizona, Senators Kyl (I) and McCain (III)
2012
none
2013
Utah, Senators Bennett (III) and Hatch (I)
2014
Nebraska, Senators Johanns (II) and Nelson (I)
South Dakota, Senator Thune (III) (Senator Johnson is a Democrat who favors a Public Option)
Most of these are among the usual suspects on almost all Blue/Red issues. A few will survive for another term, if their election comes before their state tips, or if they moderate their views to match their constituents. Barring catastrophe, the Senate tips decisively to the Liberals in 2014 or 2016. Maybe. And not on all issues at the same time. These are projections, of course, not certainties. In the meantime, we have to extract as much as possible without a reliable cloture-proof majority.
If we can get a decent Public Option through this year, the tipping point could come sooner. That's the Republicans' greatest fear. "Tax and tax, spend and spend, elect and elect." As laid out in the Republican playbook from the previous time, William Kristol: Defeating President Clinton's Health Care Proposal Or, as Edmund Burke, the Father of Conservatism, put it during the impeachment trial of Warren Hastings: "Resolved to die in the last dike of prevarication."
Of course, it would be great if Kos got Research 2000 to give us the historical data on all of the Blue/Red issues, and if we and Nate got together to do a more detailed study.