Something is rotten in Washington DC. As the days begin to get colder again, Washington seems to be swimming against the current on yet another issue.
During a 90-minute discussion, Mr Obama did not show his hand on possible troop increases. But he did make clear that that the war would not be reduced to a narrowly defined counter-terrorism effort in the border areas with Pakistan, a strategy that has been linked with his Vice-President, Joe Biden.
Source: Time Online (UK) Oct 7th 2009
This suggests that Obama has ruled out "The Biden Plan" for Afghanistan, which, at the end of the day was the only sensible plan to extract NATO troops from Afghanistan. The Biden Plan was smart, pragmatic thinking, a compromise between staying the course and withdrawal. It would have targeted Al Qaeda and the foreign jihadist base while reaching a stalemate with the Pashtun tribes.
With the rejection of the Biden plan there is limited options left. All of which involve more war in a country in which "victory" is an mirage.
What is the Biden Plan?
Joe Biden, former chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, was picked as VP because of his extensive knowledge of all things foreign policy. He is known for his pragmatic views (even though some like partitioning Iraq seemed hawkish in the past). As Vice President he probably has access to most of the assessments on Afghanistan that Obama receives.
So what is Joe Biden thinking now regarding Afghanistan?
Among the alternatives being presented to Mr. Obama is Mr. Biden’s suggestion to revamp the strategy altogether. Instead of increasing troops, officials said, Mr. Biden proposed scaling back the overall American military presence. Rather than trying to protect the Afghan population from the Taliban, American forces would concentrate on strikes against Qaeda cells, primarily in Pakistan, using special forces, Predator missile attacks and other surgical tactics.
Source: New York Times (Sept 22 2009)
This would be a smart move. Withdrawing most combat troops. Special forces and Predator strikes targeting Al Qaeda and leaving some trainers to rebuild an Afghan army. Politically it would also avoid Afghanistan becoming "Obama's Vietnam" and few people would disagree with focusing on Al Qaeda (you know the guys actually behind 9-11).
Enter the Terror-Warriors
Of course such a plan, which dramatically reduces the US military presence, was bound to irk some high placed interests.
General McCrystal appeared in London for a speech at the Institute for Strategic Studies and when asked if he supported the Biden plan said this.
The short answer is: no... A strategy that does not leave Afghanistan in a stable position is probably a short-sighted strategy.
Source: Air America (1st October 2009)
Of course I fail to see how McCrystal's plan of sending another 40,000 US troops into Afghanistan to fight a losing battle against the Taliban will "leave Afghanistan in a stable position".
Meanwhile Karl Rove, as everyone knows a foreign policy genius (LOL) had this to say about the Biden plan.
Biden has a "record rare in its consistency and duration of being wrong about big national security questions" and his approach would almost certainly lose the war.
Source: Newser (Oct 1st 2009)
Then again, according the laws of physics, if Karl Rove thinks it's a bad idea it probably means it will work spectacularly.
Back to the congressional Meeting yesterday
With Public opinion polls showing under 1 in 3 Americans believing more troops should be sent to Afghanistan. With the Taliban now having a heavy presence in 80% of the country and with our puppet Karzai caught rigging the countries second democratic election. This is the response from Washington.
According to one White House source, he (Obama) told the meeting that he would not shrink the number of troops in Afghanistan or opt for a strategy of merely targeting al-Qaeda leaders.
Source: BBC (7th Oct 2009)
So there you have it both the BBC and The Times reporting that Obama told the room that there will be no withdrawal or draw-down of troops or a strategy for merely targeting Al Qaeda.
This is the sound of escalation and this beat does have a Vietnam type ring to it. Obama is now marching into the abyss, off the cliff. The risk of Afghanistan going soar and voters blaming Obama in 2010 or 2012 is running high. Sometimes, like the case of Jimmy Carter, circumstances in which a President has little control can doom a presidency. Let's hope Obama does not leave his Presidency in the hands of fate.