UPDATE: this is a brief analysis of the domestic political effects of this news. i understand that the international reaction is different, but that doesn't have a whole lot of bearing on obama's domestic support, or how american media outlets will cover it.
sure, the right wing will go nuts. but in their eyes the final nail in the nobel coffin, in terms of legitimacy, was al gore (preceded of course by jimmy carter). but this morning (after the chuckle we had when thinking about the slap in the face this is to george w bush), when i told my wife that obama had won the nobel prize, it occurred to me that this maybe wasn't such a good thing after all. the reason: because my wife, lifelong liberal and feminist, replied incredulously, "what for?"
no one was expecting this; it's truly a surprise announcement. i won't go so far as to say it's completely unwarranted, but i will say this. if this causes my wife (or myself) to have doubts as to whether he actually deserves it -- two people who voted for him and are happy to have him as president -- what about those borderline voters, his support in the middle, the "independents" and so forth?
the irony is that winning a nobel prize is supposed to be something that would be the ultimate legitimacy-enhancing prospect; but in this case it will be presented by the right as something akin to affirmative action: "see, he doesn't even have to earn the awards they give him." and for some, it will stick. and i'm talking independents and obamacans.
it's not fair that because he's black he literally has to walk on water to prove himself to some people. but in america there's a strong constituency of bootstrap-ism, going it alone, and so forth. watch how the news day rolls out- i'm willing to bet that more than a few of the traditional media outlets will end up on the "did he deserve it?" angle. i'm not saying that it's right or fair, but dammit, we should know by now what to expect.
the nobel committee may have wanted to send a message by giving this award to obama, but they have probably actually created a problem for him. if he was to get out in front of this (strange to have to do that when one's been awarded a nobel peace prize, but welcome to crazy america), he might be best served by declining it outright, or accepting it on behalf of america's military heroes george w bush, without whom the award and his presidency wouldn't have been possible, while at the same time commenting that he doesn't feel he's done enough to deserve it -- but that he intends to fulfill the promise of the award.
and i have no doubt that he will.