This morning, the most recent poll for the Virginia Governor's race had Bob McDonnell leading Creigh Deeds by a commanding 53-44 advantage. I'm trying not to concern troll, but despite all the claims that Deeds 'closes well', I don't see this thing ending well...
Two weeks ago, I went down to the local Creigh Deeds campaign office, and met several local politicos, including my state delegate, Mark Sickles, who I'm sure will beat Bush lackey Tim Nank. Nank reminds me of the annoying kid at school who always wanted to join your crew at lunch, but after multiple attempts to politely decline, you finally end up having to say, "Don't you get it? I don't want you hanging around!" That's Tim Nank, and I don't think voters are oblivious to that.
In attendance was Creigh's campaign manager - a young, vibrant guy with a lot of vigor and an obvious admiration for his boss. He ran down the litany of requirements for a win: things that needed to happen, numbers that needed to be achieved, areas that needed to turn out, etc. But in acknowledging they were behind in the polls, he said, "Creigh closes better than any politician I've ever seen," then estimated Deeds to be 2-5 points behind McDonnell. 2-5 points, really? To be fair, the polls at that time showed a much closer race, but I really didn't see the sense of urgency that I think most of the hard-core Dems, especially those of us in the DC suburbs, feel about this race. All I've seen from the Deeds campaign here in NoVa is the 'thesis' ads. A sprinkling of issues ads here and there, but mostly he's been fixated on the thesis, which only gets the base riled up, but does nothing to court independents, especially in a state that is decidedly centrist, and has more than its fair share of conservatives. From the Washington Post:
For the first time, a majority of voters, 51 percent, say McDonnell is "about right" ideologically, despite Democrats' efforts to characterize him as out-of-touch with mainstream Virginia voters. More now see Deeds as "too liberal" than see McDonnell as "too conservative" (44 to 37 percent). Moreover, just 15 percent of voters see the thesis as "very important" in deciding how to vote, putting it well behind jobs, health care, education, taxes and transportation as a top concern.
So, I take away two things from this:
- The poll gains from that political gift known as 'the thesis' was good to get the Deeds campaign back on track, give it a short-term meme, and a nice amount of momentum. But even with pummeling away at the McDonnell thesis, he somehow still hasn't sold enough people on the fact that McDonnell, and indeed the entire Republican ticket, is ultra, ultra, ultra-conservative. So, using that momentum, he should've quickly pivoted and shifted his focus on...
- ISSUES! Deeds MUST focus on issues, and go after issues hard, and not just articulate in clear concise language why his ideas are right, but why McDonnell's are wrong. Like Obama, Deeds needs to tell people why Government can be the solution, and is not the problem. Furthermore, raising revenue to address those concerns is absolutely paramount, as opposed to taking money out of the General Fund, which will take money away from things like education and social programs (which is exactly what McDonnell wants to do).
You can't necessarily call this election a referendum on Obama either, since he has around a 58% approval rating in VA. At the end of the day, the thesis isn't going to improve or worsen commuting times, infrastructure, education, or availability of jobs, only policy. That, after all, is what made Kaine and Warner successful in what was a solidly red state during the Bush years - solid, effective, financially sound policy. Let's face it - it really is about issues, and McDonnell has been able to articulate his position in a way that is both convincing and doesn't let on that he's a flaming nutjob.
It's not for lack of hard work - those dedicated people work their asses off. But my hope is that some of that confidence and motivation I saw in that campaign office transforms into a focused, driven, clearly-communicated, hopeful message of progress and responsibility, with not a small amount of policy wonkiness. We're behind you, Creigh, but for God's sake get out there and communicate your message. I will do my part to help Creigh and his down-ticket colleagues in the three weeks remaining until the election, but until Creigh Deeds comes out and says in plain language why he is the better candidate, and convinces the voters of that, it may be a tough 4 years for us VA Progressives.