TIME reports progress on reconciling the two largest political factions seeking to represent the interests of the Palestinians. This of particular import as Obama's ME peace initiative gathers momentum.
Hamas, Fatah close in on reconciliation deal
Hamas and Fatah, bitter rivals who violently split more than two years ago, appear close to a reconciliation deal that could lead to a Palestinian unity government. That would allow Palestinians to present a more unified position in peace talks with Israel, if negotiations aren't run aground by the Israeli government's vow not to talk to Hamas and Hamas's refusal to make a permanent peace with the Jewish state.
Top Hamas official Khaled Mashal told journalists in Cairo on Monday that the Islamist organization agreed "in principle" to an Egyptian proposal that reportedly calls for holding elections in the first half of next year and deploying a joint Fatah-Hamas security force in Gaza. Fatah agreed to the plan a month ago.
The Egyptians "will work on laying down a final draft for the reconciliation project in the coming few days," added Mr. Meshal, the movement's Damascus-based chief, whose statement seemed to indicate a deal was imminent.
So what does this mean?
Both parties agree that elections are required, President Abbas' term has expired, the unelected PM Salam Fayyad is well respected but has no electoral legitimacy. Parliamentary terms end in January, and legitimate leadership is in dispute. Fatah holds hundreds of Hamas members in prisons, and effectively controls (with US assistance) the West Bank, while Hamas maintains political power in Gaza.
Progress toward reconciliation may be stalled due to objections over Abbas' postponing a UNHRC referral of the Goldstone report. Abbas has recently reversed that decision and is supporting a Libyan resolution to refer the report to the UNSC, but Hamas is seizing on this mis-step to weaken Fatah and Abbas, reinforcing the "corrupt collaborationist" image. Abbas is facing opposition from within his party, as well.
The is a an Egyptian brokered structural agreement for reconciliation with an 25 October signing date, it is not clear if this deadline will be met.
However, Salam Fayyad, in August, put forth a two year plan, for building the institutions of a State and a unilateral declaration of Palestinian Statehood by 2011, if bi-lateral talks with Israel fail.
Fayad's 54-page plan to build Palestinian infrastructure and establish Western-style public institutions is the first of its kind since the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords.
His state-building vision has already elicited Western enthusiasm and financial and political support from the Obama administration and European countries.
Israel supports "bottom up" Palestinian state-building. However, Israeli leaders have voiced legal and security-based concerns over Fayad's intention that the PLO would unilaterally declare Palestinian statehood in 2011 based on the June 4, 1967, lines. The one-sided establishment of a Palestinian state would contravene a key provision of the Oslo Interim Agreement, according to which: "Neither side shall initiate or take any step that will change the status of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip pending the outcome of the permanent-status agreement."
Another direct challenge to Israel is that Fayad's blueprint calls for massive Palestinian development in Area "C" of the disputed West Bank, which is under Israeli civil and security control, and which directly challenges the delicate, agreed-upon framework of the 1993 Oslo Accords.
Israel's requirement of "defensible borders" involves its continuing control in Area C, including the strategically vital Jordan Valley and the high ground surrounding Jerusalem and overlooking Israel's vulnerable cities along the Mediterranean coast
Analysis: The implications of Fayad's two-year path to Palestinian statehood
It appears that the intention is to declare an Independent Palestinian State based on the June 1967 Armistice line. This echoes the Saudi/Arab Peace plan's vision for final boundaries determination.
For any of this to occur, there must be sufficient political unity amongst the Palestinians to make it work.
Basically, Palestine declares its independence, applies and is accepted as a member of the UN, and appeals to the UN for assistance in the peaceful recovery of lands under Israeli control.
Fayad's intention is to create facts on the ground that will garner major international support and lead to pressure to transform recognition of a de facto Palestinian state in 2011 into a de jure state in the event that the Palestinian Authority and Israel fail to reach a negotiated solution.
"If occupation has not ended by then [2011] and the nations of the world from China to Chile to Africa and to Australia are looking at us, they will say that the Palestinian people have a ready state on the ground. The only problem is the Israeli occupation [the Israeli communities and security presence] that should end," Fayad said.
A fully Sovereign State of Palestine, with full control of it airspace and resources is of concern to Israel. Security concerns loom largest.
In a September 17 interview, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu reiterated his rejection of the Palestinian demand that the pre-1967 lines will become Israel's eastern border, which is a central part of Fayad's plan. Netanyahu told the Yisrael Hayom daily: "There are those who prophesied that the 1967 lines would be [Israel's eastern] border, but these are indefensible, something that is unacceptable to me. Israel needs defensible borders and also the ongoing ability to defend itself."
The UNSC takes up the Goldstone report on 14 October, the Egyptian Hamas/Fatah reconciliation signing was scheduled for the 25th. George Mitchell was in the region last week and invited Israeli and PA negotiators to Washington next week. Obama has made the ME peace process a centerpiece of his Foreign Policy. International consensus (outside Israel and parts of the United States) supports a "land for peace" construct, with Israel withdrawing from territories acquired by conflict, and the creation of a Palestinian State.
Some prominent Republicans and a some Democrats have already undermined Obama's request from Israel for a settlement freeze in advance of talks.
Will Obama's ME Peace initiative have the support of the Democratic Party leadership and membership, if Israel continues to resist relinquishing military and civil control over the West Bank?