The week ends with a bit of a flurry, it seems. Enjoy the cornucopia of political information as we kick the weekend off....
NJ-Gov: New Poll Confirms Toss-Up, Christie Still on Defensive
A new poll from Republican pollster Rick Shaftan at Neighborhood Research confirms what virtually every poll conducted this week has concluded: the New Jersey Governor's race is officially a toss-up. The Neighborhood Research poll gives Republican challenger Chris Christie a one-point lead over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine (36-35-11). Meanwhile, Christie is continuing to take on water for his almost incessant tendency to try to talk in generalities.
VA-Gov: Deeds Tries To Regain Footing In Final Month
An interesting tidbit from a blog posting at the Augusta Free Press: in the last three gubernatorial elections in Virginia, the campaign viewed as the most negative was the one that wound up getting blasted in November. This is possibly troubling news for Democrat Creigh Deeds, as yesterday's WaPo poll showed, for the first time, that the plurality of voters saw his campaign as the more negative of the two. Deeds, for his part is pushing back on this meme in two ways. For one thing, he is challenging the perception, arguing that McDonnell is running more media points of negative advertising than he is. For another, his ads for the weekend have turned somewhat positive, as he introduces ads touting his rural background. Back to the Free Press piece: in it, Chris Graham suggested that it might not be a bad idea for Deeds to run ads with either Barack Obama or Tim Kaine, since both have better favorabilities in the state, according to the WaPo poll released yesterday. Unfortunately, given the fact that Deeds implied that his campaign was hurt by Washington DC Democrats earlier this week, it might prove a bit tricky to then invite either the President or the head of the DNC to town.
NY-23: Scozzafava Gains Right-Wing Endorsement, Loses Progressive One
In upstate New York, Republican nominee DeDe Scozzafava's credentials as a cross-partisan moderate took a little bit of a beating over the past couple of days. She won the endorsement of far-right Congressman Jeb Hensarling of Texas. Worth noting: Hensarling is a close friend of Pete Sessions, the NRCC chairman who is very professionally invested in holding this seat for the GOP. So this might be a bit of Hensarling playing the "good soldier" on behalf of his friend's committee. Of perhaps greater consequence, Scozzafava, who has been endorsed by the labor-friendly Working Families Party in the past, lost the WFP endorsement to Democrat Bill Owens. In other election news, Robert Harding (normally of the Albany Project) points out an interesting campaign story over at SSP: the respected site Factcheck has some serious qualms with an anti-Owens campaign ad published by the NRCC.
CA-Sen: Boxer In Solid Position, According to Respected Field Poll
The Field Poll is often considered the "gold standard" of political polling in the state of California. Yesterday, the Wrap touched on the very good polling numbers for Jerry Brown in the state. Today, the pollster follows up with a solid lead for Democrat Barbara Boxer as she seeks a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. Boxer has a 49-35 lead over former HP exec Carly Fiorina, and a larger 50-33 edge over former legislator Chuck DeVore. Boxer has a +9 spread in her job approval (48-39), which is not spectacular, but is decent considering the national political environment.
PA-Gov: Republican Frontrunner Leads General According to New Poll
According to a slightly peculiar poll released at the close of the week, Republican state Attorney General Tom Corbett has a narrow lead over Democratic state auditor Jack Wagner in next year's open seat race for Governor of Pennsylvania. Corbett leads Wagner by four points (41-37). He has larger leads over the rest of the potential Democratic field. There are some problems here--the pollster is not well-known (Dane and Associates), and the sample size is almost absurdly small (roughly 200 respondents), which means the statistical margin of error is just shy of astronomical.
THE MONEY CHASE: More Financial Reports Trickling In
The Google is our friend. Scouring today, we find a number of campaigns that have leaked out their 3rd quarter fundraising numbers. In the Delaware Senate race, it is good news/bad news for the GOP. The good news: newly minted Senate candidate Mike Castle is sitting on over three-quarters of a million cash-on-hand. The bad news: he raised just eighty-seven grand for the quarter, which makes it evident that he was hardly "ramping up" for his Senate bid. Meanwhile, in Florida, the new numbers for GOP frontrunner Charlie Crist are in. As expected, his numbers cooled in the third quarter (but did anyone really expect him to raise four million a quarter?!), but he still hauled in a total of 2.4 million dollars. In the governor's race in Colorado, sobering news for Democrats as likely GOP challenger Scott McInnis (549K) outraised incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter (452K) for the quarter. Meanwhile, two of the leading Democrats seeking the governorship of South Carolina announced their totals. Both attorney Mullins McLeod and state legislator Vincent Sheheen reported in the 200-225K range for the quarter. Presumptive Dem frontrunner Jim Rex has not filed as of yet. Lastly, one House number to watch with some trepidation: in PA-06 Republican Steven Welch announced that he is sitting with over a half-million dollars on hand. Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi are the Democrats most likely to garner the nomination in this open seat.
IN OTHER NEWS...
- The perpetually popular Governor of Connecticut, Jodi Rell, might have just landed herself in ethical hot water, as questions arise as to whether or not a professor who was working on a state contract was taking state money while providing polling advice to the Governor.
- She is still likely to have a whale of a race in FL-24, but freshman Democratic Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas caught one break--one of her most potentially dangerous opponents, state legislator Dorothy Hukill, has decided not to run for Congress next year.
- Democrats, at long last, have a legitimate candidate to challenge GOP embarrassment (remember the "Great White Hope" to beat Obama?) Lynn Jenkins in KS-02. The Democrats have lured state Senator Laura Kelly into the race. It's not an unwinnable race--Jenkins only beat Democratic incumbent Nancy Boyda by around five points.
- After months of having no candidate at all, it now appears that the Democrats might have multiple candidates to challenge incumbent Republican Richard Burr as he seeks a second term in the Senate. Cal Cunningham, a thirty-something former state Senator who PPP pollster Tom Jensen thought could be a bankable candidate for the Dems, is apparently about to launch into the race.
- Democrats aren't the only ones with recruiting successes to note today. It is now looking more and more likely that Republican U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan will challenge Jason Altmire in suburban Pittsburgh's 4th Congressional District.
- The Hotline's Tim Sahd gives election junkies a lot to chew on as he releases his "Top 20" list of House seats that are in peril as we head towards the 2010 elections. It is an intriguing list. Dems can exult in the fact that five of the seven most vulnerable seats are held by the GOP. But Republicans can take solace in the fact that numbers 8-20 are, without exception, Democratic-held seats.