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Over the past months, I've profiled every House race (all 435).  It took me 19 diaries.

In this diary, I go through those and pick out the races I thought might be competitive.

More below the fold

DE-AL This seat has long been held by Mike Castle (R).  He is now running for Senate leaving this seat wide open.  Several Democrats and Republicans are running.  Delaware is a Democratic state - Obama got 62% so this looks like a very possible pickup for the Democrats.

FL-08  This one should be lively!  Alan Grayson (D) is a freshman, and may be the best known freshman in House history.  Now, we get to see if it pays off in this district that gave just 52% to Obama, and gave Bush 55% and 54% in his two runs.  Several Republicans appear to be interested in finding out.  

FL-10 Bill Young (R) has been the congressman here for a long time - since 1970.  He's 79 years old.  He's raised very little money.  Sounds like he might be retiring.  His opponent is Charlie Justice.  This is another swing district - Obama won 51-47, but Bush won both times.  If Young retires, this will be another big possible Democratic pickup.  Even if Young runs, it's possible.
FL-12 This seat is currently held by Adam Putnam (R) who is retiring to run for agriculture commissioner.  The prime contenders appear to be Dennis Ross (R) and Lori Edwards (D),  but several other Republicans are running. This is a little tougher for the Democrats - Obama lost narrowly, and Bush won more comfortably.  But it's not impossible.

FL-16 Tom Rooney (R) is a freshman Republican who won because of a scandal.  His opponent is Chris Craft (D).  Bush and McCain won here, narrowly.  It's a possible Democratic pickup.

FL-22 Ron Klein (D) was elected in 2006 and has won narrowly both times.  But the main Republican appears to be Allen West, who lost to Klein last time.  This is unlikely to switch.

FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas (D) is a freshman in a Republican-leaning district where Bush and McCain won, albeit not by wide margins.  There are a bunch of Republicans running in the primary.  This is a possible pickup for the Republican

FL-25 Diaz-Balart (R) appears to be somewhat vulnerable, but I haven't found anything indicating a Democratic opponent - some are considering running, but none confirmed.

GA-12 John Barrow (D) is the incumbent.  First elected in 2004, he won easily in 2008, but nearly lost in 2006 (less than 1,000 votes).  Obama won here, fairly easily, but Bush also won (narrowly).  GA-12 is 44% Black, and Obama likely drew more of them to the polls than previous candidates had.  Whether as many will turn up in 2010 remains to be seen. His opponent is likely to be Wayne Moseley.  This looks like a tough race.

ID-01 In 2008, Walter Minnick (D) ousted Bill Sali in this very Republican district.  This was largely because Sali is crazy ... even other Idaho Republicans wanted no part of him.  There are at least 4 Republicans (possibly including Sali) vying for the Republican nomination here, and, unless Sali wins, Minnick faces a very tough fight.

IL-06 This will likely only be competitive if the incumbent, Peter Roskam (R) runs for Senate, and this looks increasingly unlikely.

IL-10 Mark Kirk (R) the incumbent, is running for Senate.  There are several candidates from each party, and it's likely to be close.

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 03:17 AM PDT.

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